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Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

09/25/2011  12:59PM

Gold $1657.20 DOWN $79.00
Silver $30.93 DOWN $ 4.91
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.58
XAU/Gold Ratio 0.114

The CME members attacked gold, silver and copper with increased margin requirements.
Gold is now a minus 5 in a Granville down-field. The hunt is on for a low in gold. Just as a plus 19 in the preceding Granville up-field took gold to a higher high, the current down-field will lead us to a higher low within its current bull market trend.

The following are comments from Kenny and Jim Sinclair at http://www.jsmineset.com:

Market Violence Will Create Large Bear Trap

September 23, 2011, at 1:49 pm
by Jim Sinclair


Dear Extended Family,

A quote from CIGA Eric today completely encapsulates what we are experiencing in the gold market:


This is a repeat of 2009 – actually even more extreme readings than 2009. We are severely oversold today. Anyone not buying here does not believe in the fundamental story. In my opinion, this will be a huge entry point by 2012.

In conversations with Kenny we examined the worst case scenario in terms of the correctness of Eric’s comment with which we both totally agree.

Our conclusion is:

Market situations like this will be found to have held and created bear traps in several instances of similar pattern action over the past 30 years WITHOUT having continued further down to first major support. The current corrective pattern over the past 23 trading days strongly implies that the move below $1690 would continue on down to the core at $1665 at minimum as first bottom, and in the extreme to $1615, but not below $1584. This will happen prior to exhaustion and a return to the full bull trend.

So far the remaining successive levels of $2450/$2510; $2850/$2900, and $3280/$3330 are not affected.

Gold shares are being impacted by a field of problems as a result of the large short positions held in almost all. They are being taken advantage of today by pressuring the entities in hopes of causing long term holders to collapse in their commitments.

Respectfully,
Jim
 By bluejay

09/22/2011  5:46PM

Gold $1742.10 DOWN $38.40
Silver $36.16 DOWN $3.46
Gold/Silver Ratio 48.44
XAU/Gold Ratio 0.113 DOWN 0.007

The precious metals along with the shares got zapped today once the Dow Jones Averages started to considerably get attacked with selling. The DOW closed off 391.01 today at 10,733.83.

Looking at the DOW chart, it is supected that the "powers to be" will use everything in their bag of tricks to hold it at the 10,750 level where the 1,000 day moving average line resides.

Today's weakness in gold and silver and the precious metal shares smells of extreme market rigging. It is suspected that all the fiat cherleaders were involved: The plunge protection team, major banks and some of the major in-the-fold hedge funds.

Today's slaughtering of our group brings back memories of the 2008 attack when major U.S. banks took the aggressive posture of selling short gold and silver while they all feared bank runs during the financial crisis. These miscreants discredit gold and silver and their companies by the use of paper products and the phony selling of shares that they do not hold.

My son compares these types of attacks as a hamster running of his wheel, a lot of noise and motion that go nowhere in long term time. The power mongers are raddling your cage in hopes of frightening you from either buying gold and silver and the shares or scaring you into selling them. Don't fall for it!

Remember, paper products and naked shorting are forcing real assets lower. How much longer do you really think they can keep this up with banks around the world begging for more monopoly money from the U.S.? If it weren't for the recent $2.3 trillion cash-swaps from Uncle Same, many European banks would have had to close their doors affecting in the process major U.S. banks. Who's fooling who?
 By bluejay

09/21/2011  9:38AM

Gold $1798.20 DOWN $6.60
Silver $40.32 UP $0.58

Gold completed its last Granville up-field of progressive advances at 19 about three weeks ago by advancing past the $1900 level for the first time. Eleven days ago it made another attempt at this level but retreated.

Currently, we are in a down-field of about 4 as gold pursues a resting period. Previously, these time-outs since early July have only lasted but a day or two with three cumulative down days needed to register a minus one in a down-field.

The relative strength of the gold and silver shares compared by the XAU Index to gold's price continues to improve. The last on the $XAU:$GOLD chart from stockcharts.com is 0.123. Nine days ago the Index pushed above the 0.12 level which was considered positive. Breaching the 0.124 area where the 50 day average is located would be even better.

Overall, it appears the naked short sellers are slowly accepting the message that the gold price is for real. The greed factor is like an Arkansas tick once it gets ahold of you and these stock counterfeiters have always had a good dose of it.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD
 By martin newkom

09/13/2011  12:42PM

well, I just viewed an article on
"fair and balanced" Fox tv news
on mines in Calif. and all the
enironmental "red tape". I guess
the rest of the country just doesn't understand the plight of
the mining in Calif. (or do they?)
 By bluejay

09/13/2011  12:27PM

Gold $1839.70 UP $25.30
Silver $41.15 UP $ 0.86
XAU Index 218.52 UP 1.57

Gold continues to bounce around, generally, between the $1800 to $1900 area.

Affecting gold today is, what will be the outcome if Greece falls?

Included below is a link to an excellent article written by Ambrose Evans-Prichard concerning the possible fate of Greece along with potential problems for Germany.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8755881/Germany-and-Greece-flirt-with-mutual-assured-destruction.html
 By Michael Miller

09/11/2011  1:57PM

Mathematical based risk/reward summaries specifically created for the benefit of persons or companies interested in gold investment will help a beat up industry sector that remains a mystery to most financial professionals and investor/speculator folks. The old standby of reserves is mostly used; however it has become convoluted beyond value as an inclusive tool. I’ll pass today from going into the real and phony representations about “reserves” due to time constraints.

REAP, you are pondering why Gold mining died in California. The missing ingredient at the Sixteen to One and other locations is working capital, MONEY. To go forward in this discussion, the Sixteen will be the site. The analysis may be applied to other locations but not without tweaking for the most sensitive factors: geology, mineralogy history and location. What should capital look for in assessing the Sixteen or any gold mining venture?

It’s easy: return on capital; duration of time; break even , acceptable and whopping possibilities. Return will be from a cash dividend, a gold dividend or an increase in the price per share of stock. The Sixteen has 13,399,505 shares of common stock outstanding. Gold production measured in ounces or dollars must be divided by this number to gain a perspective for reward. The 2500-ounce day a few years back was valued at $1 million. Today that same day would be about $5 million or $0.35 a share.

How do the big mining companies look using a share outstanding analysis?
Below are shares outstanding from a Reuters Report.
Newmont……….…493,270,000
Barrick………….…999,330,000
Harmony Gold…..…429,810,000
Anglo American…..1,319,900,000
Goldcorp…………....736,300,000
Kinross…………….1,131,000,000

I don’t have a calculator handy so you do the math regarding what it will take in gold production to use a comparison analysis of reward based on gold production. Gotta go
 By bluejay

09/11/2011  11:35AM

Reap

Martin Armstrong is the man that might have some answers or direction for you. Check out his website at http://www.martinarmstrong.org and maybe, send him an e-mail.

Check out his latest paper on the history of direct taxation, "Bound by the Theories of the Past."

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Bound%20to%20Past%2009-08-2011.pdf

Continue your education!
 By REAP

09/09/2011  1:05PM

By education I am a Physicist/Business Consultant. One of my “hobbies” is applying mathematics to business problems. So here is an interesting question….at least to me. How much of the short term changes in the spot price of gold is caused by the degree of instability in the Stock Market?
Gold is known best as a safe haven in times of increasing risk. These days there is a long term and ever increasing risk due to possible Sovereign Debt default, deficit spending and inflation, and a growing realization of how little we can trust in the national and international financial systems. I believe that these are long term problems and will increase, or at least plateau out the price of gold for the foreseeable future. This kind of long term trend is not new and is well understood.
However, in the shorter term, say month to month, or quarter to quarter, the price of gold does fluctuate. And so does the Stock Market, but by larger deviations. The best mathematical relationship of risk, due to stock price variance, compared to the safe “risk-free” Treasuries is the Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM. According to the CAPM formula the more a stock price varies from its average, the greater the risk, and the higher the return on that stock needs to be to offset that risk. The CAPM also applies to the Stock Market as a whole versus Treasuries.
Therefore it seems reasonable to look for a similar relationship between the Market as a whole and spot prices for gold. The greater the variances in the overall Market, the greater the risk; the greater the risk the greater the flight into safe assets like Treasuries and gold; and up goes the spot gold price. If such a relationship does exist, it might be useful for mining companies with sizeable inventories of gold. Has anyone looked for a correlation between the shorter term fluctuations of gold prices and the fluctuations in the overall Stock Market, or various Stock Market Indices? Or better is anyone interested in looking for such kinds of correlations? I’d like to hear your thoughts and comments.
 By bluejay

09/08/2011  10:41PM

Gold $1862.30 UP $46.00
Silver $42.29 UP $ 0.69
Platinum $1843.00 UP $23.00
Gold/Platinum Ratio 1.01
XAU/GOLD Ratio 0.121
Gold/Silver Ratio 44.04

The following was stated by Jeff Clark at Casey Dispatch today:

Governments: The CME hiked margin requirements on gold twice recently and five times on silver earlier this year. At some point a hike could be one too many, prompting investors to slow down on gold and turn to the undervalued equities to capture bigger returns. Another catalyst could be a government announcing they're lowering tax rates on miners - a shock in the current rapacious environment that could see new money pour into the sector overnight.
 By bluejay

09/07/2011  2:08PM

Gold $1816.30 OFF $57.30
Silver $41.60 Off $ 0.36
Gold/Silver Ratio 43.66
XAU/Gold Ratio 0.124 UP 0.006

As gold sold off today, a positive development took place for shareholders of the senior and junior producers. The XAU/Gold ratio advanced from a positive right ascending triangle chart formation. That ratio was up 0.006 at 0.124, surpassing resistance at 0.12. This definately puts added pressure on the shorts with gold falling while being great news for the longs.

The trend of gold and silver over the shares continues to be positive, which is negative for the stocks, but the shares are saying, not so fast as we are ready, willing and able to make up for lost ground.

I was in there today trying to fill an order for a senior gold and it wasn't easy buying shares on the bid side just below prevailing prices with gold sliding.

I believe the gold shares are sending everyone an important message, the tide may be turning.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$xau:$gold
 By bluejay

09/04/2011  12:05PM

Gold $1884.20 UP $58.80
Silver $43.25 UP $ 1.75
XAU/Gold Index 0.118
Gold/Silver Ratio 43.56

Comments from the Internatioanl Forecaster yesterday: "As we predicted a week ago Wednesday that gold would bottom out Thursday and rally $200 by today(Friday). Spot gold was up $47.70 to $1,873.70, as December rose $55.70 to $1,884.80. We apologize for being off by $15.20. Spot silver rose $1.54 to $43.02 and December rose $1.78 to $43.31. This was accompanied by a statement that the ECB hasn’t ruled out PIIGS gold as collateral for gold backed euro bonds. That was the impetus for the rally. No one considered that the scale of borrowing required is so large that there probably are other ways of trying to deal with the problem rather than gold. Gold could prove to be a drop in the bucket. In this conversation the Central Bank of Ireland said, it will not disclose whether the gold reserves of Ireland, six tons, had been swapped or loaned out, which means they are long gone. What a duplicitous group."

It seems Bob Chapman is more in touch with the short term than Martin Armstrong who stated that last week gold would be in a trading range from about $1700 and $1825.

It is strongly advised that listening to Bob Chapman will be of great benefit for those still seeking a financial education. Access to daily interviews of Mr. Chapman are available at http://www.bobchapman.blogspot.com.

The two most favored gold Indexes, HUI and XAU, continue to lag in relative strength against gold. This lagging has been in process since September of 2010. During the period gold advanced over $600 while the shares have remained, generally, stagnant.

Both Indexes are at intermediate resistance areas or just under them. The HUI has trouble in the 600 to 620 zone and up to 650 while the XAU has problems at 230. The HUI close Friday at 618.30 while the XAU closed out the week at 222.79.

Many analysts suggest that the shares are undervalued. One of these market watchers is the respected Pierre Lassonde the chairman of the Canadian royalty concern, Franco-Nevada Corporation.

The gold and silver shares for months have been under pressure from the hedge funds who have been lessening their risk to their gold positions by shorting the shares. This spread has been profitable for them but people like Jim Sinclair and Bob Chapman have been saying lately that these folks have over-stayed their welcome with the greed factor consuming their better senses.

Somewhere in the future when the adjustment is made back to reality the shares will stage an historical run. It's just a matter of time.
 By bluejay

08/31/2011  4:27PM

Gold $1824.50 DOWN $10.60
Silver $41.57 UP $ 0.22
Gold/XAU Ratio 8.37
XAU/Gold Ratio 0.119
Gold/Silver Ratio 43.89

Martin Armstrong has recently said that he expects gold to be in a $1700 to $1825 trading range. Mr. Armstrong earlier hah spoken of expected weakness in the yellow metal starting in early Septermber. Other analysts are expecting gold to be higher in the months ahead.

It's a mixed bag of nuts over the short term with the bull trend fully intact. Caution seems to be the order of the day for new long term buying of anything gold or silver related.

The XAU Index, representing gold and silver shares along with Freeport McMoran that mines a great deal of copper plus gold and silver, is in position to gain some minor relative strength against gold.

The following is a link to a relative strength chart of the XAU compared to gold.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD

A right ascending triangle has been forming on the chart over the past four weeks between 0.11 and 0.12. A move above the top of the triangle will be received well by patient investors of this group with higher valuations. Although the overall short term trend continues to remain bearish against the XAU with gold, its shares will benefit some from a price move above the troublesome 0.12 area and possibly, set the stage for continuing better times for shareholders in this sector.
 By bluejay

08/25/2011  8:35PM

Saudi Arabia is a good customer for U.S. debt in exchange for their oil. The Saudi's break-even price for production is $85 a barrel.

Lindsey Williams is predicting, from a reliable source, that oil will rise upwards from between $150 to $200 by the end of 2012. He also states that unpublished, government censored, vast oil reserves in Alaska will come on line at about $200 a barrel.

That equates to gas prices in the neighborhood of $6 to $7 a gallon here for us in the U.S. by the end of next year.
 By martin newkom

08/25/2011  10:13AM

We are told elsewhere that the
US has more oil than all the other
nation/producers combined. We have it in Alaska, continental US
all over. It is politics that
keeps us from really pumping it.
 By Hans Kummerow

08/25/2011  9:03AM

Gold-Price has not changed at all during the last year in Swiss Francs. In Euros it has gained 10% during the last year.

The gold-price-hike-hype in US-Dollars is an obvious result of Bernanke's attempt to drain 14 trillion in debt down the inflation pipe.

Fly to Zurich an enjoy a 10,00 US-$ cup of coffee at the airport lounge. That experience will give you a rough idea, what the US-$ price for a barrel of crude-oil may be as soon as the Arabs get through will their ongoing revolutions.
 By bluejay

08/24/2011  8:17PM

CME Group Raises Performance Bonds(margins) For Comex Gold Futures By 27%
 By bluejay

08/24/2011  1:08PM

Current gold comments by Martin Armmstrong:

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Gold%2008-24-2011.pdf
 By bluejay

08/24/2011  12:26PM

Gold $1764.40 DOWN $67.80
Silver $39.45 DOWN $ 2.35
Gold/XAU Ratio 8.58
Gold/Silver Ratio 44.65

It appears today that the go-go hedge funds are closing out gold positions directed by their computer software trading programs.

The most price extreme movements in bull markets are short term sell-offs, it's just what happens. Nothing wrong with it, it's just what they do. The opposite is true in bear markets, the biggest short term moves are to the upside.

It is considered that these counter-trend moves are painted to shake people out during bull markets and to suck people in during bear markets. The price movements, when they occur, are routinely used by smart money to saddle up up more of their primary trend positions.

The Gold/XAU ratio continues to favor holding gold and silver over the gold and silver stocks. Some market followers contend that the shares are under-valued. The probabilties point to their being right but more proof needs to be established on the relative strength chart of the two.

The Gold/Silver ratio is another matter. The last on the ratio chart is 44.65 ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold. Some weeks back an historical breakdown occurred when the 60 level gave way which was followed by a crash in the ratio down to about 32. This is when silver nearly hit $50.

A bull market currently exists favoring silver over gold. The 46 level on the ratio chart appears to be a high point until silver begins, again, regaining more relative strength against gold. The CMI Coin Investment spokesperson stationed in Phoenix on last Saturday's Weekly Metals Wrap at King World News is calling for an eventual return to the 16 to 1 spread and possibly, lower to 10 to 1.

If and when gold attains a price of $5000 for example, the lower ratio would put silver at $500 an ounce. Today, silver is under $40, down from $44 a few days ago. Buying silver coins to me, is a "no brainer."

Disclosure: 20% of my liquid assets are in silver coins and 100 ounce bars.
 By martin newkom

08/23/2011  12:15PM

It could be that the dollar could
be a little stronger. The metal
price has gone up on a weak dollar.
 By bluejay

08/23/2011  10:14AM

Gold $1852.00 OFF $46.10
Silver $42.14 OFF $ 1.58

The downward action today in the metal is normal and a deserved time to rest a little for gold, nothing goes straight up forever. A more pronounced percentage decline is certainly in the cards and should be viewed as another buying opportunity.

During the latter part of 1978 gold experienced a heavy sell-off driving prices lower from $455 to about $390. That was a percentage drop of 17% and it still remained healthy enough to trade nearly as high as $900 about 14 months later.

Now as in 1978, we are in a break-out mode and reactions should be bought on a scale down basis with confidence.

For gold to be heading higher sooner rather than later, gold must remain above $1764 for nearly two weeks.

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