October 9, 2015 

Gold Enters Major Bull Market


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 By bluejay

07/02/2013  8:36AM

From Martin Armstrong this morning:

ANSWER: As wild as it might sound to the non-Goldbugs, the metals are actually not in a bear market.

How sure? This is about a 100% probability. The issue is not the metals ALONE. It is everything interconnected. For the metals to enter a REAL bear market gold must close BELOW $680 on an annual basis and silver BELOW $8.50.

This may be shocking for most to understand but creative minds in this field of buying and selling equities, commodities and bonds are few and far between. The money played in the above represent the biggest money game in the world. Don't be caught being too subjective and prone to believing everything you might see and hear. There is another frontier out there that few care little about, it's called getting it right. Do your own thinking and never give up searching for what really is.

Mike never gave up and as the days pass the probabilities of his locating the next big gold deposit only improve. It's a given on our properties that time lapses between million dollar finds are a necessity in order to find the next big one.
 By bluejay

06/28/2013  12:23PM

At best, gold has just about finished an awful intermediate plunge. The major bull market is still intact. Stock market semantics have always been important to me in all my past professional writings. Unless someone identifies the class of bear or bull market, it is just assumed by many that the primary direction is what they are speaking of. Bear market and bull market terms are quite loosely used between people that just don't know what they're talking about. Just ask anyone and your get a myriad of descriptions of the two.

Just to be helpful, you may want to go back and rethink what kept the railroad shares pushing ahead as just being satisfied with some profits may not prepare you for the next time when different circumstances either take them down or up. I love the railroads and I have been riding the rails all through the U.S. and Canada since I was 5 years old. There is no better aid to thinking than being on a train or at the beach. Currently, I'm in a villa overlooking the water and Land's End in Cabo.

I think relying on your gut is in some form being creative and good for you for having faith in your investments and in your will when smarter people than us with big money were twisting our minds and attempting to get us to part with our fully paid up company shares.

Are you receiving Martin Armstrong's daily missives? It's like being back in the higher learning institutions again BUT this time, you're being taught by, probably, the most brilliant creative mind on the planet. I kid you not.
 By fredmcain

06/28/2013  4:38AM

I like your points and you have brought out some good ones here. Although I personally believe that gold is in a major “bear market” (by the 20+% drop standard, that is), I am also a firm and adamant believer that the long-term direction is up which is what you suggested below.

Based on the way other bear markets have performed in my lifetime, I strongly suspect that the worst of the gold drop is probably already behind us. Sure, it could still fall another 200 points or so as you suggested but that would still put the worst of the rout behind us.

Since I first became involved with stock investing around 1996, I have witnessed and survived two ravaging and painful bear stock markets. First, the “pop of the tech bubble” in the year 2000 which led to a painful, 3-year bear market and then, far worse, the “financial crisis” bear market that started in the fall of 2007 and ran until March of 2009 when it finally hit rock bottom.

Amazingly enough, my railroad stocks held up quite well in both bear markets and actually helped prop up my whole portfolio. That was a good case in point of how the standard and accepted knowledge and advice of the “experts” may not always hold water. How many financial advisors recommended people to beef up on railroad stocks at the start of these two bear markets? I didn’t see any. This helps confirm another point that you made below that what the television, newspapers and books guide people to do is often wrong.

Please don’t get me wrong here, either, I am not blowing my own horn ‘cause my decision to beef up on the RR stocks was dumb luck and not “financial genius”. It happened because I was interested in railroads and wanted to be in the business, that’s all. And that’s the way it is too with my mining interest. I bought OSTO ‘cause I am interested in the business and not because I think it’s a fast track to “get rich quick”. But sometimes, buying stocks in a business that you are really interested in can have payoffs as my experience with the RR stocks has shown.

Getting back to the 2007 – 09 bear stock market, we saw many, many people panic and bail out right near the very bottom of the rout. Those poor people essentially locked in their losses. What a shame. I very nearly did that too but something just told me to hand in there and “this too shall pass”. It did and I thank the Good Lord that he gave me the help I needed to “stay the course”. Tragically and most ironically, many people – and in some cases even the very same people – are now doing exactly the same thing all over again with gold! They are panicking again, selling and locking in their losses! They just don’t seem to “get it”.

The biggest mistake I made during the financial crisis was that I didn’t put a bunch of money into stocks near the bottom of plunge. Alas, that couldn’t be helped ‘cause I was very worried about losing my job, too, and was afraid to part with any extra cash that I might have needed to live on. Thankfully, it never came to that. I’d say we all have a lot to be thankful for. It’s so easy to forget that.

Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

06/27/2013  2:07PM


My advice to you is don't believe everything you read. I am a long term investor and all my years of experience tells me that I have survived by being a creative thinker not by listening to talking heads with their rules and standards. Bill Gates left school for the reason that Einstein did, creative thinkers are not supported by so-called learning institutions.

Just look at Mike Miller concerning mining, he did it all from step one many years ago. Mike must have read some " how to do manuals" but I'm sure he'll tell you that most of his knowledge came from his own hands-on experiences.

I know how difficult it is to gain experience and some might think gathering as much reading material on a subject might replace the field experience but it doesn't. Einstein was once referred to as a high school pupil without much future. Conformity in school was not his thing. He went out on his own and did it.

Martin Armstrong once told me from federal lockup that i was lucky to be creative. Some of my original works have been approved by such men as James Sinclair and Gerald Loeb.

What I'm saying is, don't take someone else's word for it, discover it for yourself.

I would venture to guess that about over 95% of the public believes gold is in a bear market by some cooked up standards. I don't use these standards, I have my own.

My friend Martin Armstrong states this morning, it is very likely that gold will bottom out just above or just below the $1000 mark. This whole thing could end in a matter of weeks with at least a quick $200 point drop, or it couldn't. We'll see.

In conclusion: Gold has been in a major bull market since 2003 when I drew reference to it on these pages when the crossing of a major average line first took place.. The most violent sell-offs take place during long term bull markets. The most violent rallies take place during long term bear markets. A long term bull market or bear market to my eyes is in place when a particular item is above of below its 1000 week moving average.

I learned this from my own experience, not from the television, the newspapers, the internet or from books.

IF one would frequent the pages of armstrongeconomics.net you just might discover some facts that you never knew about and some guidance that might save you.
 By fredmcain

06/26/2013  1:40PM

The standard and most widely accepted definition of a "bear market" is a 20%+ drop from the most recent high. Using that definition, gold is now in an official bear market. How low will it go? Who knows?

What really has me totally baffled is that stocks, bonds and precious metals are now all falling in lock step. That's not supposed to happen. Where are the investors who are panic selling right now putting their money? Beats me - unless it's leaving the country. That could be I guess. Anybody else have any ideas?

Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

06/25/2013  10:08PM

Gold $1250.70 OFF $26.90
Silver $19.01 OFF $0.63

From Martin Armstrong, he still maintains that gold will make a monthly low in June and a daily intra day low in July.

As gold investors are feeling the pain, one must remember that the 2008 takedown of gold was orchestrated by the big NYC banks because they were in trouble and didn't want folks taking their money out for gold, so they all got together and destroyed the price stability of their competitor.

It is feared that a repeat of the 2008 big bank activities in now in continuing progress. Selling during the 2008 crush was what they wanted to scare people out of their gold positions and put their money back into the banks. Well this time it will be different for depositors as they will be bailing out their banks personally during the next expected crisis. These are being commonly spoken of in the newspapers as the new bail-ins.

It's quite possible that Asian selling tonight will carry over into the morning NY paper gold market.

Not selling during these waterfall price events takes courage. Scraping together some money to purchase some gold coins at these prices and possibly lower is what I am doing.

This current selling mode could take prices even lower but it is highly unlikely they will remain at these extreme levels. And out of this crash and burn drop a Phoenix will emerge taking gold to all-time highs again.
 By bluejay

06/22/2013  10:32AM

Bob Reiner speaks on gold. From this morning's International Forecaster:

Similarly, his replacement isn’t going to want a world depression on his or her watch. So, the only way they know to ward that off is to print more and more. Thus, it is my opinion that talk is cheap, but a year from now QE of some form will not only be in place, it will probably be bigger than it is now.

Which makes things even more bizarre. Look at what happened to Gold this week. On Thursday alone it was down 90 bucks the ounce. Yet once again people were clamoring for it. Physical gold sales once again boomed. Now, we’ve talked about the idea that the Central banks want people pushed out of gold and silver. This isn’t’ a joke, you don’t naked short the paper gold market time after time, pounding it lower because it’s the fun thing to do. No, you do that when you have an agenda. So, what is the agenda?

Gold is migrating from West to East. Places like China have been around a long long time. They have many thousands of years experience seeing what different dynasties have done with “money” and also know that gold got them through it all. China wants all the gold it can get, as it is of my opinion that they want the Yuan to be part of the global reserve and they want to back it with some percent of gold. But that has created a problem for the European central banks.

They want gold too. So, how are they going to get it?

We know Central banks have been buying gold this year. Actually they’ve been quite aggressive about it. But there’s only “so much” that they can lay their hands on. While I don’t totally believe the estimates, but it is said that all the gold ever mined would fit in my back yard. Maybe, maybe not. What I do know is that there isn’t a whole lot of it out there. Now, if you’re a Central banker and you’re trying to get more gold in your vaults but it is expensive and there’s not much around… what do you do? You get together and pound it. Drive the paper price lower. Drive folks out of it. Show them it’s junk and they should buy currency and stocks.

Along with attacking the prices, if you pay attention you see they’re doing things in the background that get me having flashbacks from the 30’s where the US confiscated everyone’s gold. Many don’t know that FedEx has stopped delivering precious metals to individuals in the UK and Germany. On May 23, France passed a law saying their postal can no longer deliver gold to the public. Over in India, their Government is trying to find ways to push people away from gold. Little by little they’re doing their best to discredit it, and make it harder to obtain. The CME just hiked margin requirements on Gold by a whopping 25%. Again this isn’t by accident. They don’t want “people” buying gold; they want it all for themselves.
 By bluejay

06/21/2013  7:14AM

Gold Standard

Posted on June 21, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: If money was gold we would not have inflation. Why do you disagree with that? Do you like inflation?

ANSWER: Sorry. Even when gold was money in coin form there was inflation. The economy rises and falls. That is the Business Cycle. Those who advocate the Gold Standard have never invested what they claim. We were on a gold standard between 1945 and 1971 and it did not prevent inflation nor did it last.

You must investigate the past with an open mind. Let what happened unfold without trying to support a redetermined assumption. Westerners favored the new Bank of the United States before the Panic of 1819, which created open opposition to the institution. The Second Bank of the United States stopped allowing payment of debts in paper and instead demanded payment in specie—metallic gold and silver coins—which were in short supply after the War of 1812 due to a large trade deficit with Britain. The hardest hit sector was Western farmers who could not pay their loans to the Bank because they could not obtain the specie that was demanded. The Second Bank of the United States then forced western branches to foreclose on farms with outstanding loans. Westerners began to call for reform and the end of the Bank of the United States.

Can you imagine you have a 30 year mortgage bought with paper dollars, and then we adopt a gold standard. You do not have enough gold to repay the loan so they come take everything you have. Think twice before buying into that story. There is no way to make such a transition.
 By bluejay

06/20/2013  12:29PM

Gold $1277.40 OFF $73.90
Silver $19.68 OFF $1.67

Aside from manipulation talk Martin Armstrong stated it briefly today:

"This is a Spiral Collapse. There are so many people involved who just bought gold and held that there is enough fuel to see the typical required panic sell off."
 By bluejay

06/20/2013  10:10AM

Gold $1291.60 OFF $59.70
Silver $19.95 OFF $1.40

"These markets are clearly and blatantly being manipulated."

So says, William Kyle out of Hong Kong today who is a hedge fund manager.

Go to http://www.kingworldnews.com for the full interview of him by Eric King, it's the most present interview.
 By fredmcain

06/11/2013  4:57AM


I’m sorry but I guess I interpreted some of you comments as being pessimistic on gold when in fact they were not. Based on your most recent comment below, you sound like you think gold is a good investment. It may very well be. But I happen to personally believe that a much better investment might just be in the common stocks of mining companies.

Investing in a big mining company like Newmont or Anglo Gold is probably quite safe over the long term (talking a 20 or 30 year horizon here). But big companies offer less potential for growth than smaller companies. That is actually a fairly widely held Wall Street belief and is not just my opinion.

If it is true then an aggressive investor might look for smaller mining companies like Sutter Gold or Emgold. Trouble is, these companies are extremely risky.

The Original Sixteen To One Mine offers a happy medium. It offers excellent potential and yet it has been in business for a long time. It is also an American company (many other mining companies are Canadian or foreign). It is also a most fascinating operation. So, I jumped. The only real fly in the ointment is the California Water Board fiasco. I am really worried about this but at the same time I expect it will have a happy ending but I don’t really know that for sure . No one knows that for sure.

I would like to hear from some other forum members on this issue. Perhaps someone should start a new thread on it? I have some of my own ideas and opinions about it but I’m not sure if they’re right or not. It would be nice to know what all the issues are and how we can help. For my part, I would be willing to write a few letters but I want to make absolutely sure that I don’t inadvertently make things worse. “The pathway to hell is paved with good intentions”.

And oh, yes, I’ll start checking out Armstrong, too.

Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

06/10/2013  6:53AM

Hi there Fred,

There is nothing like holding a piece of gold. Until last year, gold had been strong for 13 years. According to Martin Armstrong, it was time for a rest.

People believe gold is in a bear market because the U.S.press tells you so. If you remember my contributions here, I have always stated it was in a bull market. The press sells what the call news. Have they ever defined what a bear market is? Of course not!

If you want the real news get plugged into Armstrong Economics.
 By fredmcain

06/10/2013  6:03AM

Blue Jay,

I must say that I most certainly enjoy reading your posts! You provide a lot of interesting information and insights to the “world of gold”.

But, if I dare say so, sometimes I can’t help but feel that you are just a tiny bit too pessimistic – or perhaps I’m misunderstanding.

Although I’m new to gold, I have had an extreme fascination for investing for at least 20 years now or, more accurately, since childhood. It’s just that my interest really came into focus about 20 years or so ago.

I am a very strong, fervent believer that you have to take the long-term view. It’s true that gold had entered a kind of bear market right now, there’s no denying that. But taking the long-term view, gold is way, way ahead in price from where it was 15 or 20 years ago even with this recent tumble taken into consideration. I don’t know what gold was selling for in 1995, but I would venture to guess that it could loose another several hundred dollars and *STILL* be ahead of where it was in 1995. Then consider that the Original Sixteen To One Mine was doing O.K. back then with gold much lower so why not today?

*AND* the price of gold *WILL* recover. You can bet the farm on that ‘cause these things always do recover. Just look at what happened to stocks back in 2008. Millions of people believed that they would never recover – or at least not during their lifetime – and yanked out their money. Big mistake! Look at where stocks are now!

Although I don’t know much about gold, this I do know. The human race has had a fascination with gold that reaches back over the millennia. You can read in the Old Testament Bible that the Israelites had a penchant for gold thousands of years ago. So, I am just not too concerned about the gold bear market. It’ll come back – I can almost promise you that. Unless, of course, our whole civilization falls to pieces but if that happens, nothing will be safe.

BUT ! ! ! there is something else that I am very, very, very concerned about. And that is that California Water Board "scandal" or whatever you want to call it. That really is worth worrying about. Just as Michael Miller stated in that one excellent video, "it could bankrupt this company". Mike will have my thoughts and prayers come this October and, Lord willing, perhaps we can get through this thing.

Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

06/05/2013  2:48PM

Gold $1402.70 UP $2.70
Silver $22.55 UNCH

We elected the third minor Daily Bearish Reversal today confirming that the target week of 05/20 should be a temporary high short-term. Gold did not elect any minor Daily Bullish Reversals against still warning
that the rally thus far is a dead cat-bounce. We need a daily closing ABOVE 1448.50 on spot to firm up support temporarily, otherwise lower lows are still ahead.

Martin Armstrong
 By bluejay

06/02/2013  10:29AM

Gold is currently falling in dollars demonstrating (1) there is no pent up inflation and (2) it is capital fleeing into the dollar (bonds & stocks). BEFORE you will see a bull market resume in gold, sorry – you have to wait for the currency to catch up. If you are brainwashed and constantly presume the dollar will collapse any moment because the Fed increased the money supply, I suggest you are married to the mental conditioning you have been subjected to, have a closed mind, and will lose your shirt insisting you are right when the markets are proving you wrong. Gold declined in a basket of currencies, which is why it fell into 1999. This is about surviving – not punishing the world for its sins. Don’t worry. A rising dollar will cause far more damage than rising gold. Gold is a ting, tiny, fraction of the world economy. The capital flows are in trillions of dollars. Even 500,000 contracts at $1500 would be $75 billion. It is way too small of a market to harbor all the refugee cash in the world. That is bond and stocks – the only markets capable of absorbing trillions of dollars.

Martin Armstrong
 By bluejay

05/31/2013  2:20PM

Posted May 31st, 2013 at 3:08 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under In The News.

Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, ‘Account overdrawn.’
–Ayn Rand
 By bluejay

05/31/2013  1:55PM

Gold $1388.30 OFF $25.40
Silver $22.28 OFF $0.50

Gold poked its head above the $1400 mark and promptly got its head chopped off. Is this the end of its brief rally from the low $1300's? We'll see.

The following is an excerpt from a recent Armstrong report:

The entire economy is still a non-linear system that on the surface is massively unpredictable from moment to moment, yet is strangely bound within predetermined confines. This is why I state that you CANNOT predict gold or any market in isolation. Everything is connected and there is a form to this madness.

Every price movement, no matter how alarming in its twists and turns, always collapses and then recovers. This is the energy that creates everything around us – the swings between two extremes like the beating of your heart. Even our economies are a complex system that cannot be manipulated by government and it is why Marxism/Keynesianism have utterly failed. The bureaucrats and the bankers hate my guts because I stand to expose what they do is only aggravating the system and is causing us to move to the extremes of the outer-boundaries on each side. This leads them to seize even more power to put their hands around the neck of the economy and choke it to death so they can retain power. The more they react in this manner, the greater the volatility causing them to chase it even more until they become their own worst enemy. That is why I say big governments always fall by their own hand – it is economic suicide. They become more draconian the more they lose power. This is the fate of all empires, nations, and city-states. They cannot see that their greatest enemy is always themselves.

The politicians would rather destroy centuries of civilization before rationally ending socialism that does not work. The banks want to be the man with the one-eye in the land of the blind. But rigging the game to create the perfect trade, only results in destroying society. They may become the one-eyed man in the land of the blind counting all their wealth, but there will be nothing left and no place to spend it. At that moment in time, historically even gold has lost all value as was the case after the fall of Rome.

Just before John Maynard Keynes died in 1946, he told Henry Clay, a professor of Social Economics and Adviser to the Bank of England of his hopes that Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand would help Britain out of the economic depression that it is in: “I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.”

Even Paul Volcker in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle conceded that the idea that government could manage the economy under this age of “New Economics” failed. Nobody in government is willing to hand back power once taken. It is like the conviction rate in New York City – 99%. Citizens cannot ever win anything against the banks of government. Politicians will NEVER admit they are the source of the problem. So it looks like we must simply crash and burn.
 By bluejay

05/18/2013  2:15PM

Strong words from Martin Armstrong this morning:

"The dollar MUST rise sharply OVERALL between now and (the year) 2015.75."

This is not good for gold.

The major gold and gold and silver stock Indexes turned down on Friday as both their MACD's broke lower. A MACD crossing took place where the faster moving average bust through the slower one. These are very short term expected moves that, on average, should last from 3 to 4 weeks.

We have all been schooled by the gold group analysts that the dollar has to turn to dust and I have been effected as well. The truth of the matter now is that the whole sector will most likely be affected by a surging dollar over the many months to come. This will all be influenced by an immense flow of funds into dollar denominated items from weaker currency countries. Armstrong today is saying by the time the dollar move reaches its end the Pound, to mention one, will have sunk by 50%.

Times have changed but the price of gold continues to be in a major bull market with the 5000 day average now ascending in the neighborhood from about $800 to $1000. I do not have access to my old data base being on vacation so I can't be exact.
 By bluejay

05/17/2013  12:02PM

Gold $1363.20 OFF $22.70
Silver $22.34 OFF $0.35

From the last entry gold is off over $100. What's up? What's up is the dollar is surprising most everyone. From a chart standpoint, the dollar at 84.20 or so is poised to move higher, that's just the way it is

There are tremendous amounts of money leaving Japan and Europe destined for the U.S. This is a safety issues for the folks in those areas and the dollar is, in their minds, the safest place to be now. This money is finding itself into the stock market, real estate and treasuries.

Although it appears that the recent surge in buying the physical metals has passed its rush gold still remains in a major bull market as it know takes on the aspects of being the red-haired stepchild with declining values. When international money flows intensify these folks are looking foe safety and advancing markets of which gold in not in that classification currently
racking up daily losses.

Gold still has a chance at bottoming this year but it must hold the $1300 level to accomplish this. This is the opinion of Martin Armstrong, although some others believe the metal has further ground to cover on the downside.

In the past I have been influenced by Jim Sinclair with great success but poor Jim missed this current bout of weakness when gold crashed under the big recent support lever in the neighborhood of about $1530.

About the best we can expect now is a continuing sharp sell-off generally holding the $1300 area which is a far cry from
$1900 many months ago.This unexpected hiccup in lower prices is just something that has to be endured and is not spelling the end of the current long term major bull market that gold currently resides in.

Bull markets every once in a while sell off dramatically and this is the personal unsettling nature of these markets. I continue to hold, mostly physical, and expect short term lower prices. Longer term, I know I will be the victor with other believers but a little more pain is on the way. When the bottom has been put in, there will be time to average down.
 By bluejay

05/06/2013  11:46AM

Gold $1469.10 OFF $1.60
Silver $23.99 OFF $0.14

Originally, it was intended to go into the mechanics of why gold should remain subdued and possibly go into some fireworks in autumn but something more important needs your listening attention, go to the link below, it is a must:


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