May 27, 2016 
 Friday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By Michael Miller

12/19/2013  3:28PM

The bulls and bears in markets will always battle. People send me articles or I get information about gold prices. I spend little time thinking about gold prices. Today's news was worth some thoughts. Some thought of others are copied below.


December 19 - Gold $1195 down $41.10 - Silver $19.14 down 87 cents
"Was As Bizarre As Anything I Have Witnessed In Thirty-Eight Years In This Industry" … MLB
"Some traders were surprised that risk assets such as equities rallied on the reduction in quantitative easing while gold came under pressure again which is counter intuitive. Gold’s sell was again due to paper gold selling by traders speculators as there was little increase in selling by owners of bullion.

"Arguably, the Fed’s small taper and statement is bullish for gold as the Fed confirmed that ultra loose monetary policies and the unprecedented zero percent interest policies are set to continue. Also, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to deteriorate as we pointed out yesterday." … Mark O’Byrne, GoldCore
The farce goes on! Yesterday was beyond farce in the degree of the blatant aggressiveness of The Gold Cartel with their efforts to trash gold and silver, while the DOW goes to all-time highs on the same news, news which should have affected both markets in somewhat similar fashion. Course, it has not been this way for 14 months as articulated here and in my presentations at conferences over and over again. Anything to do with QE over this period of time has sent the DOW up nearly 3,000 points and gold down $600 an ounce. And STILL, the financial market press, and most of the gold pundits, remain silent on the issue, fiddling around to make any sort of sense of it all. Anything but to deal with the blatant truth.
Al Capone does it again and is smiling from ear to ear.
Following Fedspeak, The Gold Cartel crushed any sort of shortcovering rally and then began to lean on gold in the Access Market with one of their PLAN C operations. Support at $1220 was breached and the price ended the day around that price level. That was only Jacks for Openers, as they were only waiting to go into an aggressive PLAN A mob hit in London this morning at the exact same as usual…

By the time this attack was over, gold had taken out key psychological support at $1200, falling to $1192 on its low of the day. This puts gold at a new correction low close over the past 28 months.
To corroborate just how corrupt this financial market terrorist attack really was, one only needs to see how the price of silver collapsed with gold. Of course, silver is tied at the hip to gold in the suppression scheme matter. Silver took out its support and fell all the way to $19.05 before stopping its plunge. This is with the DOW rocketing to all-time highs, the prices of copper steady, and crude oil going higher. Why should silver collapse in that scenario? Yep, the farce goes on and on and on.
You can count on one thing for sure. This was all set-up. All that matters is what the US Government (via the Fed and Exchange Stabilization Fund) had in mind for the gold and silver prices following whatever Fedspeak was really all about. The notion that the spec shorts were being set up by JP Morgan and others in The Gold Cartel was just plain wrong. Instead The Gold Cartel is using the specs shorts to carry out their mission. Same drill we have seen all year. They cap all rallies and pressure the market the same way ALL THE TIME, such as this hideous PLAN A selling. The spec shorts, which aren’t bluffed out by these brief sharp rallies, then pile on and down the price goes, with spec longs who are still around getting slaughtered.
Another way of putting what happened yesterday, with today as an encore…
White Knuckle Time:
Yesterday’s precious metals and stock action immediately before and after the announcement by the U.S. Fed of a $10b per month reduction in the bond-buying "stimulus" (read: "bank handouts") was as bizarre as anything I have witnessed in thirty-eight years in this industry.
To say that the markets’ collective responses to the announcement appeared contrived is the understatement of the century. Literally seconds before the announcement, several thousand S&P futures contracts were bought at-the-market driving equities through the roof with a simultaneous assault in the gold pits. It was as if a pre-programmed algorithm executed orders designed to ensure that the market’s response to the "taper" was positive while capping precious metals at the same time.
The outcome was a near-three-hundred point rally in the Dow to a record close and a 2.7% drop in gold despite the fact that a $10 billion dollar reduction still left $75 billion to be injected every month into the banking system with money created out of thin air…
MLB
The AM Fix stunk up the place at $1205.25. The PM Fix was worse, as it plunged to $1196, which ought to be a new low for the move down.
The gold open interest rose 1167 contracts to 386,599. The silver open interest went up 1144 contracts to 134,450. An indicator—which has been 100% predictive since silver started its run down beginning in early October of last year at $35+ an ounce— has been a rising silver open interest. As documented here, this has also been the case at various key times over the past five years.
James Mc…
Open bomb bay door, release derivative payload
Bill,
The gold market has become little more than scheduled carpet bombings. The brazen nature of the assaults keep reaching new heights. The scheduled flash crashes around 3:00 AM, 8:00 AM, Comex open, 9:30 AM and 10:00 AM are nothing more than pure unadulterated cartel hits. Incredibly 1.327 million ounces of paper gold was sold in just 6 flash crash minutes. That's a total of 46.66 tons at an average of 1 ton sold every 7 seconds. No legitimate trading could ever go down like this.
2:40 AM: 1,262 Feb. contracts sold -126,200 oz. / 3.94 tons
2:41 AM: 3,709 Feb. contracts sold - 370,900 oz./ 11.59 tons
8:21 AM: 1,654 Feb contracts sold - 165,400 oz./ 5.17 tons
8:47 AM: 2,295 Feb contracts sold - 229,500 oz./ 7.17 tons
10:00 AM: 2,530 Feb contracts sold - 253,000 oz./ 7.91 tons
10:06 AM: 3,482 Feb contracts sold - 348,200 oz./ 10.88 Tons
2:40- 2:41 AM was the biggy.

No news, just 4,971 shorts hitting in the thinnest trade possible. Once more hats off to those "new breed" spec shorts, who keep knocking it out of the park. Those alleged commercials that got very long must be feeling like boneheads right now. We can assume that if JPM is indeed the commercial long (as some allege) then these devastating trading losses will be showing up in their Q-4 P&L. Seeing how JPM makes money virtually every single trading day of the year this will be a real switch! The RSI and stochastics would indicate that $1180 is still the goal, as I have suspected since early November. We came within $12 of that figure after today's last flash crash at 10:06 AM. $1180 is now only a hop, skip, and flash crash away. The next 3 Fridays should provide ample thin trade to make it happen.
Ring out 2013, and hope the cartel physical ammo is as low as they are acting. Surely they've seen those spaghetti westerns where the bad guy dies only after his revolver starts making clicking noises instead of firing bullets. That's the best visual I have right now for where we are.
James Mc
Inputs and comments
*Trader Rog…
to bill at 7:00 AM
hi bill,
you won't be happy when you wake up. or if you
are awake, i know you're not happy. big dump
overnight!
this is why i think we have one more hit. 5% down
from the june lows if we follow what the HUI did.
i'm getting back into my silver futures if we see
$18 spot silver.
best,
roger
*It's a shame
Mornin' Bill:
It's sure a shame that an honest industry can be shut down by those tryin' to keep a dis-honest industry limping along.
Mining is an honest industry because the end products can't be faked.
Paper promises like currencies and derivatives can.
Only labor plus raw materials can produce and thus increase the world's real wealth.
I'm truly understanding Germany's history during the first half of the 1900s now.
Certain sociopaths really can lie and steal their way to success (for a while) and subjugate a portion of the world.
Recent lower prices for gold and silver confirm this, almost on a daily basis.
CNBC Santelli's question "just what is Bernanke afraid of?" is the collapse of the sociopaths.
There'll be little to nothing left.
Respectfully,
Edward Ulysses Cate
*Accelerated Au and Ag Manipulation portends Paradigm Shift
Dec 19, 2013

With the ongoing and accelerated price suppression of gold and silver and another major hit today to new recent lows (or very close), I believe the Chinese [banksters] have taken over leadership of the manipulation. Surely they have the HF algo computer skills to do this. It all fits logically, does it not? They want the gold to back their new currency and they manipulate Ag down as a "tag along." The lower the "price" the more they can accumulate with their stores of paper/digital fiat. Who knows, maybe even JPM, or a sub entity, is in cahoots with them?
When the US is dry, one of these days, and one would think very soon now, they orchestrate (or it happens on its own) a major revaluation— say they stop accepting paper dollars for payment of goods. After some chaos, we have a currency system reboot with new price levels and new global currency valuations with the dollar, and therefor ALL financial assets, at much lower valuations. Au and Ag are likely to be at much higher (multiple) valuations. Make sense?
Does it fit with Eastern CBs taking a different path than Western CBs? I think so.
What can the Fed do in this scenario? I don’t see any significant counter.
So if one thinks this is a plausible or likely scenario, how would one hedge or prepare for? (Hint: phyz#$al) And of course GATA be in it to win it!
Cheers,
Chris K
*Gold and commodity commentary
This article in the link below caught my eye and is from the FT today. It is written by Mark Haefele, Global Head of Investment at UBS Wealth Management, and Chris Wright, Cross-Asset Strategist.
Within the article is a fascinating sentence as follows: "Fourth, in the case of gold, investors will long remember 2013 as the year that their precious shiny metal ceased to be a safe haven. In April, gold plummeted 14 per cent in two days, including 9 per cent in a single day. And this was only the fifth largest one-day fall since the end of the gold standard. No asset with this kind of volatility should be considered safe."
Looks like those who don't like gold have achieved their aim for 2013.
Regards,
Bob
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/12/19/1729412/investors-should-abandon-long-term-commodity-bets/
Behavioral Finance
*The yield of the 10 yr T note rose to 2.93% and is right below its multi-year high. This is one to watch closely, as are the dollar and crude oil. A mix of a 3%+ yield, oil over $100 per barrel, and a breakdown of the dollar below 79.80 could really roil the stock markets.
*The Gold Cartel’s price suppression scheme remains in play. We may only know the why of all of this as time goes by. One thing is certain. This is all about some agenda that involves most of the western central banks. They are VERY scared of something, or have crucified the gold price for some ulterior motive to be known in the future.
Crude oil rose 75 cents per barrel to $98.81.
The dollar was up .0018 to 80.64. The euro fell .0039 to 1.3556. The pound dropped .0020 to 1.6370. The yen went down .11 to 104.23.
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
Naturally, the DOW closed higher again to another all-time high. It went up 11 to 16,179. The DOG, which was sharply lower yesterday before Fedspeak, fell 12 to 4054.
 By bluejay

11/27/2013  11:14PM

Fred

Thanks for the coal idea. Westmoreland seems to agree with you.
 By bluejay

11/27/2013  4:25PM

Hi Fred

There is the possibility that gold could remain out favor for upwards of five years but I doubt it. A famous trader once said, "I don't buy anything until the trend turns up."
I believe he was referring to the intermediate trend. The gold shares currently are a train wreck. Some have been slaughtered and their future remains uncertain.

Concerning the general market shares, according to Martin Armstrong, they will continue higher until the beginning of the 4th quarter in 2015. This man has the best batting average on Wall Street.

Concerning the Wall Street Journal, they are unreliable and most often have an agenda of their own. Once the DOW clears 16,200 the probabilities greatly increase that the averages will double. Of course you'll never be able to sell that to the public after the smashing that took place in the 2007 to 2008 period.

Good luck with your purchases, no help needed with Probe. Your ideas concerning coal are interesting.
 By fredmcain

11/27/2013  6:48AM

My thoughts here on gold:

I have been reading in the Wall Street Journal as of late that this is a bad time to buy most stocks because with the recent raging bull market, many stocks are overpriced. So, what do you buy?

Simple answer: You buy what's still cheap. And that would be? Why, mining companies, of course! They are the one thing that's really down this year. It has been said about stocks that they are the one thing that when they go "on sale" people tend to shy away from them. Many people who would see an ad for shoes at half price or coffee on sale – any item really – tend to jump at the chance. But not with stocks. Why not? Warren Buffett does! He sees something on sale – he buys!

I have bought some mining stocks this year and the Original Sixteen to One is among them. I also bought Newmont, Hecla and Probe. I am not an investor of gold or silver metal because those items have no earnings – but mining companies do. (As long as they don't go out of business - you're good).

Another thing that might be a good investment, believe it or not, is coal mining companies like Peabody. I know, I know, sounds crazy, huh, but you never know. Coal companies are REALLY cheap right now and the rumors of King Coal’s death might be greatly exaggerated. Time will tell, however. I think it might be worth the risk.

My greatest fear with OSTO continues to be its legal problems with the State of California. I continue to hope and pray that there will be an outbreak of sanity at the State. Hope springs eternal.

Regards,
Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

11/26/2013  12:10PM

Gold – Beating a Dead Horse
Posted on November 25, 2013 by Martin Armstrong


QUESTION:

Hello Mr. Armstrong,

I understand your thoughts on manipulating against a trend, but with gold being halted for the 4th time in 3 months by large sales orders placed during illiquid hours, does there come a time when you can say, “OK, something fishy is going on here.”?

Banks have been caught manipulating energy, aluminum and libor – So why would gold be so special as to not be manipulated?

“Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, but three times is enemy action.” – Ian Flemming, Creator of James Bond
BG

ANSWER: Talking directly with real sources, it has been liquidation. If it were a manipulation, they would be covering the shorts. They have not done that. This has been simply liquidation that is going with the trend. There is no depth to the market anymore. Liquidity is down by 50% on everything. This is the same kind of liquidation that took place in the last year of the Nikkei. It is just capitulation. The orders are not even that large. There is simply a lack of buyers even during the liquid hours. People would flock to buy gold if there was a real solid bull market bid.

It is just a matter of time. Let the liquidation take place. It has to do this. Mines will close and shorts will then build going into the lows. It will be the shorts who make the low – NEVER longs. At the low, people can only see it going lower and at the high, it will explode to a new plateau any day now. In 1929, Irving Fisher became famous for saying the new high reflected the real economy and it was a new plateau that would hold. In Japan, they said the Nikkei was destined for 100,000. In gold in 1980 $1,000 was a blink-of-the-eye away as was $100 silver. With the introduction of the Euro, the press touted that the pound would collapse because it was not joining. A major German manufacturer sold a year’s worth of sales in Britain short on the news. I got called in to get them out of a $1 billion loss based on what they read in the press.

You simply MUST break the back of sentiment to reverse a trend be it up or down. Yes, you are beating a dead horse. The longer you make excuses, the longer you will suffer losses and fail to see how markets really trade. If all the commodities were in a bull market and ONLY gold was declining, that would imply something is wrong. But that is not the case here for the entire sector is declining as is Emerging Markets who were the big buyers in commodities. Nobody, not the Fed or any powerful group with all the bribes paid to the IMF to keep funding Russia, can prevent a reversal in trend.

The Club, or market manipulators, tried to get me involved directly. I looked them right in the eye. They invited me to the IMF dinner to try to impress me how they had government in their back pocket. It does not matter. All the bribes in Christendom cannot make a bull market out of a bear market. They have lowered rates to virtually zero in Japan for more than 20 years. It failed to stimulate the economy.

The Club are in this game for the quick fast buck – not for systemic manipulation. That is just absurd. Where is the immediate profit in that? They manipulate government systemically to prevent being criminally charged with countless manipulations. But that is starting to come back to bite them in the ass. They could not control every government and in Britain, they could not stop the investigation into LIBOR.

A very famous member of the Club lost money – his employee’s pension money he played with on the side in England. He somehow fell off his yacht and drowned preventing any investigation into the Club. I would not trust these people with the keys to my car to simply park it. They keep trying to manipulate but they blow themselves up every time. How many bailouts have there been? They are not even good at the game because they think they can bribe their way to profits and never consider the risks that independent analysis reveals.



Nevertheless, they are by no means interested in pressing gold lower systemically. Every manipulation they have pulled off going right back to the 1980 and using the Hunts to get the public involved, has been on the UPSIDE. Why? It is easier to manipulate the metals for whenever they rally, everyone WANTS to believe this time is real. They get a deep market and sell the top every time. They changed the rules in the metals in 1980 lowering margins to a fraction for themselves (shorts) and increasing them if you were long. That was CRIMINAL, but they own the CFTC. There is no quick buck in pressing metals lower except selling into a major high or spike rally. They want money NOW – not later! Most of the big players are out and those remaining will make the low when the finally capitulate.

Gold has followed the same pattern as every other market when it gets into an over-bought position. You ran up for 13 years. THERE MUST BE A CORRECTION after that. There is no exception. Why constantly make excuses? Just go with the flow and you will make more money than refusing to accept the simple fact that what goes up, also goes down. I do not care what the fundamentals are. Bullish news in a bear market is NEVER bullish enough. Bearish news in a bull market is ignored. The trend decides all interpretation.

Gold is in line with all other markets. The stocks are rallying because that is the focus of big money. They need DIVIDENDS to compensate for the low yield in bonds especially pension funds or they will go bust. Gold offers no such dividend. Only capital appreciation when it rises. They get both trends in stocks and with a rising dollar, the foreign investor get currency gains on top of it..
 By bluejay

11/26/2013  10:55AM

Gold $1241.20 Down $10.40
Silver $19.86 Down $ 0.35

Gold continues to be in a severe intermediate reaction following the 2011 highs. It's is common to hear the beat of, gold is in a bear market. I have always focused on the long term trend which remains bullish above the 5000 day moving average which is just under $1000. All my metal positions are intact as I continue to sporadically add to that position.

Gold will go much higher than the 2011 highs of about $1930 as the long term bullish trend reasserts it presence, probably in 2014. In the meantime, the use of bear market can be related to the minute, hourly, short and intermediate trends BUT I'm in for the long haul and witness these periods of weakness as opportunities by methodically buying on a staggered time basis.

The following submitted article by Martin Armstrong tells it like it is, as it should be as a basis, not for fear of the metal going lower but as basis to grasp the reality of the current market in hopes of using it best to your advantage.

For the moment, gold is going through liquidations with the funds being transferred into the private sector, mostly financially fit industrial shares that pay a dividend. This trend will continue into 2015. Call me compromised but I'll stick with gold's long term major bull market and wait for tomorrow.

Martin Armstrongs's article will have already preceded this commentary.
 By bluejay

10/31/2013  9:42PM

Gold $1322.50 Down $30.00
Silver $21.91 Down $ 0.88

Both gold and silver continue to be plagued by unsettled market conditions. The short term charts look miserable. The long term bull market continues to be intact but investor confidence has been shaken and is vulnerable to worsen on any further shakes to the downside with new recent lows. Short term rebounds joining in with the bull trend are usually commenced following investor shake outs.

In early October the 250 day moving average on gold drifted lower under its 1000 day average which may be setting the stage for a drop off in the weeks or a few months ahead.

With tax selling season upon us the general gold share market could be under pressure for the next two months, at least.

The current declining phase for the past two years from above $1900 has been brutal for many of us. Some hold gold at around the $400 level to much higher prices for recent purchasers.

As long as the government continues acting the way it does along with all the political in-fighting gold must be held regardless of price. I have bought from $350 all the way up to $1750 and don't lose any sleep worrying about it. When I do, I will buy again. If gold goes under $1000 which it could, then we would be near a short term bottom. When gold turns higher it should be bought again. When it does, Martin Armstrong will report it and you will be informed as soon as he does.
 By bluejay

10/19/2013  11:08AM

U.S. Gold Mine Output Rises 3% Month-On-Month In June - USGS
By Debbie Carlson Kitco News
Friday October 18, 2013 12:43 PM
(Kitco News) - U.S. gold mine output was 19,400 kilograms in June, the U.S. Geological Survey said Friday.

June output was 3% above the upwardly revised May production of 18,800 kgs. June output was down 5% from year-ago production of 20,400 kgs.

The average daily production rate in June was 647 kgs of gold, USGS said. This compares to May’s average daily rate of 608 kgs, the June 2012 average daily rate of 641 kgs, and the 2012 average of 641 kgs.

Domestic gold output for the first half of 2013 was down 3% versus the first half of 2012 and 8% lower than the second half of last year.

For more information, see:

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mis-201306-gold.pdf
 By bluejay

08/17/2013  1:22PM

Gold $1377.20 UP $11.10
Silver $23.26 UP $0.25

Over the short term it is understood that games are played with the prices of gold and silver by the folks with the big bucks. The following excerpt identifies one of these entities. The writer is Rob Rinear. The full article, "$50 million In A Day -Legal Frontrunning" was published in today's International Forecaster.

But there’s a bigger game being played in the gold and silver market and the main culprit is JP Morgan. Over the past 5 years I’ve gone out of my way to show you how JPM was oft times short more silver than a full third of all the worlds production. That’s illegal, yet no one at the CME or CFTC saw a thing. I’ve showed you how they’ve used off hours trading to move the price of Silver around to suit their short positions. Nothing was said. Metals traders the world over have contacted the authorities concerning their illegal positions and blatant manipulation. The regulators say “they can’t see any manipulation”

Well, consider this. During the big gold smack down JPM was net short a “ton” of gold. When the paper attack on gold and silver hit back in April, it didn’t’ happen until JPM was notoriously short the metal. Then after watching it plunge from almost 1900 the ounce to under 1200, something changed. By following the printed data from the exchanges, we saw them shift from being insanely short, to being very very long. Yet they didn’t do it over night and gold didn’t really move. It sat there, bouncing and wiggling up and down.

But sure as the sun comes up each day, when JPM is net/net long something you can bet that eventually it is going to go where they want it. Back on June 27 th I told my Insiders Members that the miners were beginning to look very attractive. We bought five of them for our long term account. Gold was only trading at a low of about 1180 the ounce, horribly down from the 2011 highs. From then on however, gold started moving back up. The miners have gained smartly, but gold itself has really taken off. From 1180, gold hit 1340.
But here’s where it gets interesting. On Friday morning, CNBC was doing its pre market cheer leading and they mentioned gold. That’s when I heard it… “and find out why JPM says you should buy this gold bounce”. Now let’s get this straight. An investment house that gives investment advice to traders and investors was short gold and profited greatly by the massive manipulated illegal take down. Then they accumulated longs and as if by magic, gold starts rising. Then as they got “really long” they come out and tell people to continue to buy the metal despite the massive bounce it’s had.

When you’re JPM you can manipulate the metals market and no one says anything. When you’re Carl Icahn, you can make yourself 50 million in a day by going on twitter and hyping your own book. When you’re a lowly newsletter writer you have to defend yourself against charges of “misleading investors”. Sort of ironic, no? Yes.

I’m a gold and silver bull. No one that has ever read one of our letters since 2001 could deny that. When gold pushed up over 15-1600 I told my readers I was no longer adding to my position, as I felt it was getting too much froth from late comers trying to catch the train. Then when it fell back under 1300 I’ve been adding on dips. Why? Simple, gold and silver are the only real money out there. Of course that’s not the only reason, but it is the most basic. Most people collect “currency”. I don’t want currency for anything more than paying bills. I want money. “Money” doesn’t go to zero. Currencies do.

For the last 100 years, our currency has lost 98% of its purchasing power. Gold on the other hand has retained 100% of it. Now which one would you rather hoard?? But besides the idea that owning “money” is considerably better than owning debt notes which is what our currency is, I also like to have things that are in demand. Consider this… Gold bar and coin investment grew 78% year-on-year globally in Q2, topping 500t in a quarter for first time. After rising from just 299 dollars the ounce in 2000, all the way to 1900, don’t you find it really telling that so many people want physical metal that its demand grew almost 80% in one year?? I certainly do.

All the stars are lining up for gold and silver to make their next move higher. Not because the economy is going to crash ( it is) not because our monetary experiment has failed ( it has) not because Central bankers have lost control and credibility ( they have) but because JPM is long. JPM gets what it wants and if they’re net long, you can bet they’ll “make” gold rise. It’s what they do.

Silver has a very good shot at challenging its all time high within the next ten months. While Silver is the whipping boy of JPM, if gold gets loose, Silver will tag along simply because the folks that want to buy gold but can’t afford it, will rotate into silver. Never underestimate the animal spirits of greedy investors. If they see gold really on a tear, even though they don’t have enough money to buy one ounce of gold, they’ll buy the 10 ounces of silver they can afford. All those wanna be gold buyers will add to the underlying manufacturing and medical demand for the metal and push it quite nicely. Yes, we’re silver buyers too.
 By bluejay

07/22/2013  9:07PM

I hope Mr. Sinclair is right.

Comex Must Change Its Delivery Mechanism Soon
Posted July 22nd, 2013 at 7:41 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Extended Family,

The cause of today’s spectacular rise in the gold price is the reality that with Friday continues large drops in the Comex warehouse gold inventory. No cogent argument can be formed against the reality that because of the continued fall in gold inventory that within in 90 days or sooner the Comex must change its delivery mechanism.

The highest probability is that Comex will have to move to cash settlement rather than gold. Part of that settlement could be lots of 100,000 GLD that represents the ability to exchange for gold.

Their problem is that if GLD is part of the settlement mechanism for the spot Comex contract that GLD will be destroyed by the convertibility. It is a truism in gold that which is convertible into gold will in fact be converted over time.

Gold rose today because those knowledgeable know the inevitability of the changing of the Comex contract, as it is today which calls for settlement in gold between contracting parties. There is no question this is the emancipation of physical gold from the fraud of no gold, paper gold. The emancipation will cause physical gold exchanges to take birth and to be the discovery mechanism for the price of gold. This is the end of the ability to use paper gold future contracts as a mechanism to make the gold price sing and dance at the will of the manipulators.

With manipulation coming to an end the true value of gold will be discovered by the cash exchanges that are now taking birth. The advent of the cash spot exchanges around the world is the natural demise of the Comex set up as convertible and now being converted.

As long as one can buy spot, pay insurance, transportation and re-casted by Rand Refinery to Asian products sold profitably, the demands for real gold are ending the hay days or even existence of the futures exchanges.

Gold is headed back to be traded as it was before 1973. Gold will trade well above $3500 and those who have lived in the gold market like me for now 53 years know it.

A price of $50,000 for gold is not out of the question as a result of its emancipation from “fraudulent paper, no gold, paper gold.”

GOFO is screaming this truth. The warehouse inventory of every futures gold exchanger is screaming this. The fact that there is no meaningful above ground supply of gold is screaming this. The fact that most of the central banks supply of gold is leased is screaming this.

There is no reason why gold cannot move up hundreds of dollars a day when the Comex changes their spot contract settlement, as they must, as they will, very soon.

Respectfully,
Jim
 By bluejay

07/22/2013  11:42AM

Trend line resistance is currently located at $1338.15 which is the descending 50 day average price on gold. This area should be treated as resistance until such time that the metal surpasses it with comfort.
 By bluejay

07/22/2013  11:33AM

Gold $1327.40 UP $30.40
Silver $20.40 UP $0.87

Gold busted through the $1300 area and continued higher hitting $1341.10 later today. It is suspected that the $1338-$1340 area may have been it for a while.

We are slowly approaching August 7th when Martin Armstrong says directional changes will take place. If any market is strong going into the time period then expect the opposite following and vice versa if it is weak. Gold may have reached too soon or even might surpass trend line resistence and may be affected with a lower price later. We'll just have to wait and see.

I'm thinking even though the short term may have stabilized we need to continue holding out for better gold purchase prices past the short term or even during the continuing short term. The possibility still exists that the western central bankers might take gold lower in continuing attempts to shore up CONFIDENCE while needing more and more time to put Humpty Dumpty back together.
 By bluejay

07/02/2013  8:36AM

From Martin Armstrong this morning:

ANSWER: As wild as it might sound to the non-Goldbugs, the metals are actually not in a bear market.

How sure? This is about a 100% probability. The issue is not the metals ALONE. It is everything interconnected. For the metals to enter a REAL bear market gold must close BELOW $680 on an annual basis and silver BELOW $8.50.
-------------------------------------------------------

This may be shocking for most to understand but creative minds in this field of buying and selling equities, commodities and bonds are few and far between. The money played in the above represent the biggest money game in the world. Don't be caught being too subjective and prone to believing everything you might see and hear. There is another frontier out there that few care little about, it's called getting it right. Do your own thinking and never give up searching for what really is.

Mike never gave up and as the days pass the probabilities of his locating the next big gold deposit only improve. It's a given on our properties that time lapses between million dollar finds are a necessity in order to find the next big one.
 By bluejay

06/28/2013  12:23PM

At best, gold has just about finished an awful intermediate plunge. The major bull market is still intact. Stock market semantics have always been important to me in all my past professional writings. Unless someone identifies the class of bear or bull market, it is just assumed by many that the primary direction is what they are speaking of. Bear market and bull market terms are quite loosely used between people that just don't know what they're talking about. Just ask anyone and your get a myriad of descriptions of the two.

Just to be helpful, you may want to go back and rethink what kept the railroad shares pushing ahead as just being satisfied with some profits may not prepare you for the next time when different circumstances either take them down or up. I love the railroads and I have been riding the rails all through the U.S. and Canada since I was 5 years old. There is no better aid to thinking than being on a train or at the beach. Currently, I'm in a villa overlooking the water and Land's End in Cabo.

I think relying on your gut is in some form being creative and good for you for having faith in your investments and in your will when smarter people than us with big money were twisting our minds and attempting to get us to part with our fully paid up company shares.

Are you receiving Martin Armstrong's daily missives? It's like being back in the higher learning institutions again BUT this time, you're being taught by, probably, the most brilliant creative mind on the planet. I kid you not.
 By fredmcain

06/28/2013  4:38AM

I like your points and you have brought out some good ones here. Although I personally believe that gold is in a major “bear market” (by the 20+% drop standard, that is), I am also a firm and adamant believer that the long-term direction is up which is what you suggested below.

Based on the way other bear markets have performed in my lifetime, I strongly suspect that the worst of the gold drop is probably already behind us. Sure, it could still fall another 200 points or so as you suggested but that would still put the worst of the rout behind us.

Since I first became involved with stock investing around 1996, I have witnessed and survived two ravaging and painful bear stock markets. First, the “pop of the tech bubble” in the year 2000 which led to a painful, 3-year bear market and then, far worse, the “financial crisis” bear market that started in the fall of 2007 and ran until March of 2009 when it finally hit rock bottom.

Amazingly enough, my railroad stocks held up quite well in both bear markets and actually helped prop up my whole portfolio. That was a good case in point of how the standard and accepted knowledge and advice of the “experts” may not always hold water. How many financial advisors recommended people to beef up on railroad stocks at the start of these two bear markets? I didn’t see any. This helps confirm another point that you made below that what the television, newspapers and books guide people to do is often wrong.

Please don’t get me wrong here, either, I am not blowing my own horn ‘cause my decision to beef up on the RR stocks was dumb luck and not “financial genius”. It happened because I was interested in railroads and wanted to be in the business, that’s all. And that’s the way it is too with my mining interest. I bought OSTO ‘cause I am interested in the business and not because I think it’s a fast track to “get rich quick”. But sometimes, buying stocks in a business that you are really interested in can have payoffs as my experience with the RR stocks has shown.

Getting back to the 2007 – 09 bear stock market, we saw many, many people panic and bail out right near the very bottom of the rout. Those poor people essentially locked in their losses. What a shame. I very nearly did that too but something just told me to hand in there and “this too shall pass”. It did and I thank the Good Lord that he gave me the help I needed to “stay the course”. Tragically and most ironically, many people – and in some cases even the very same people – are now doing exactly the same thing all over again with gold! They are panicking again, selling and locking in their losses! They just don’t seem to “get it”.

The biggest mistake I made during the financial crisis was that I didn’t put a bunch of money into stocks near the bottom of plunge. Alas, that couldn’t be helped ‘cause I was very worried about losing my job, too, and was afraid to part with any extra cash that I might have needed to live on. Thankfully, it never came to that. I’d say we all have a lot to be thankful for. It’s so easy to forget that.

Regards,
Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

06/27/2013  2:07PM

Fred,

My advice to you is don't believe everything you read. I am a long term investor and all my years of experience tells me that I have survived by being a creative thinker not by listening to talking heads with their rules and standards. Bill Gates left school for the reason that Einstein did, creative thinkers are not supported by so-called learning institutions.

Just look at Mike Miller concerning mining, he did it all from step one many years ago. Mike must have read some " how to do manuals" but I'm sure he'll tell you that most of his knowledge came from his own hands-on experiences.

I know how difficult it is to gain experience and some might think gathering as much reading material on a subject might replace the field experience but it doesn't. Einstein was once referred to as a high school pupil without much future. Conformity in school was not his thing. He went out on his own and did it.

Martin Armstrong once told me from federal lockup that i was lucky to be creative. Some of my original works have been approved by such men as James Sinclair and Gerald Loeb.

What I'm saying is, don't take someone else's word for it, discover it for yourself.

I would venture to guess that about over 95% of the public believes gold is in a bear market by some cooked up standards. I don't use these standards, I have my own.

My friend Martin Armstrong states this morning, it is very likely that gold will bottom out just above or just below the $1000 mark. This whole thing could end in a matter of weeks with at least a quick $200 point drop, or it couldn't. We'll see.

In conclusion: Gold has been in a major bull market since 2003 when I drew reference to it on these pages when the crossing of a major average line first took place.. The most violent sell-offs take place during long term bull markets. The most violent rallies take place during long term bear markets. A long term bull market or bear market to my eyes is in place when a particular item is above of below its 1000 week moving average.

I learned this from my own experience, not from the television, the newspapers, the internet or from books.

IF one would frequent the pages of armstrongeconomics.net you just might discover some facts that you never knew about and some guidance that might save you.
 By fredmcain

06/26/2013  1:40PM

The standard and most widely accepted definition of a "bear market" is a 20%+ drop from the most recent high. Using that definition, gold is now in an official bear market. How low will it go? Who knows?

What really has me totally baffled is that stocks, bonds and precious metals are now all falling in lock step. That's not supposed to happen. Where are the investors who are panic selling right now putting their money? Beats me - unless it's leaving the country. That could be I guess. Anybody else have any ideas?

Regards,
Fred M. Cain
 By bluejay

06/25/2013  10:08PM

Gold $1250.70 OFF $26.90
Silver $19.01 OFF $0.63

From Martin Armstrong, he still maintains that gold will make a monthly low in June and a daily intra day low in July.

As gold investors are feeling the pain, one must remember that the 2008 takedown of gold was orchestrated by the big NYC banks because they were in trouble and didn't want folks taking their money out for gold, so they all got together and destroyed the price stability of their competitor.

It is feared that a repeat of the 2008 big bank activities in now in continuing progress. Selling during the 2008 crush was what they wanted to scare people out of their gold positions and put their money back into the banks. Well this time it will be different for depositors as they will be bailing out their banks personally during the next expected crisis. These are being commonly spoken of in the newspapers as the new bail-ins.

It's quite possible that Asian selling tonight will carry over into the morning NY paper gold market.

Not selling during these waterfall price events takes courage. Scraping together some money to purchase some gold coins at these prices and possibly lower is what I am doing.

This current selling mode could take prices even lower but it is highly unlikely they will remain at these extreme levels. And out of this crash and burn drop a Phoenix will emerge taking gold to all-time highs again.
 By bluejay

06/22/2013  10:32AM

Bob Reiner speaks on gold. From this morning's International Forecaster:

Similarly, his replacement isn’t going to want a world depression on his or her watch. So, the only way they know to ward that off is to print more and more. Thus, it is my opinion that talk is cheap, but a year from now QE of some form will not only be in place, it will probably be bigger than it is now.

Which makes things even more bizarre. Look at what happened to Gold this week. On Thursday alone it was down 90 bucks the ounce. Yet once again people were clamoring for it. Physical gold sales once again boomed. Now, we’ve talked about the idea that the Central banks want people pushed out of gold and silver. This isn’t’ a joke, you don’t naked short the paper gold market time after time, pounding it lower because it’s the fun thing to do. No, you do that when you have an agenda. So, what is the agenda?

Gold is migrating from West to East. Places like China have been around a long long time. They have many thousands of years experience seeing what different dynasties have done with “money” and also know that gold got them through it all. China wants all the gold it can get, as it is of my opinion that they want the Yuan to be part of the global reserve and they want to back it with some percent of gold. But that has created a problem for the European central banks.

They want gold too. So, how are they going to get it?

We know Central banks have been buying gold this year. Actually they’ve been quite aggressive about it. But there’s only “so much” that they can lay their hands on. While I don’t totally believe the estimates, but it is said that all the gold ever mined would fit in my back yard. Maybe, maybe not. What I do know is that there isn’t a whole lot of it out there. Now, if you’re a Central banker and you’re trying to get more gold in your vaults but it is expensive and there’s not much around… what do you do? You get together and pound it. Drive the paper price lower. Drive folks out of it. Show them it’s junk and they should buy currency and stocks.

Along with attacking the prices, if you pay attention you see they’re doing things in the background that get me having flashbacks from the 30’s where the US confiscated everyone’s gold. Many don’t know that FedEx has stopped delivering precious metals to individuals in the UK and Germany. On May 23, France passed a law saying their postal can no longer deliver gold to the public. Over in India, their Government is trying to find ways to push people away from gold. Little by little they’re doing their best to discredit it, and make it harder to obtain. The CME just hiked margin requirements on Gold by a whopping 25%. Again this isn’t by accident. They don’t want “people” buying gold; they want it all for themselves.
 By bluejay

06/21/2013  7:14AM

Gold Standard

Posted on June 21, 2013 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: If money was gold we would not have inflation. Why do you disagree with that? Do you like inflation?

ANSWER: Sorry. Even when gold was money in coin form there was inflation. The economy rises and falls. That is the Business Cycle. Those who advocate the Gold Standard have never invested what they claim. We were on a gold standard between 1945 and 1971 and it did not prevent inflation nor did it last.

You must investigate the past with an open mind. Let what happened unfold without trying to support a redetermined assumption. Westerners favored the new Bank of the United States before the Panic of 1819, which created open opposition to the institution. The Second Bank of the United States stopped allowing payment of debts in paper and instead demanded payment in specie—metallic gold and silver coins—which were in short supply after the War of 1812 due to a large trade deficit with Britain. The hardest hit sector was Western farmers who could not pay their loans to the Bank because they could not obtain the specie that was demanded. The Second Bank of the United States then forced western branches to foreclose on farms with outstanding loans. Westerners began to call for reform and the end of the Bank of the United States.

Can you imagine you have a 30 year mortgage bought with paper dollars, and then we adopt a gold standard. You do not have enough gold to repay the loan so they come take everything you have. Think twice before buying into that story. There is no way to make such a transition.

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