November 23, 2017 
 Thursday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By studbkr

04/09/2009  4:43PM

FYI: this morning, Jim Sinclair on www.jsmineset.com quoted BlueJay's January 31st posting about RGLD. There may have been a jump in web traffic to this site today...
 By bluejay

04/08/2009  9:58AM

Producers vs. Explorers

If gold is a low risk investment during the Kondratieff winter, should we buy the gold producers or the exploration companies? Let's examine the 'pros' and 'cons' of each of them.


Gold Producing Companies:
Pros:
· Investment grade. Large Market Caps-appropriate for investment funds.
· Cash flow via production.
· Excellent liquidity.
· Share prices generally rise faster than the price of gold itself.

Cons:
· Depleting their resources through production. Difficulty finding sufficient reserves to maintain production at current levels; e.g.
Newmont produces 7.2 million ounces each year. Approximately 9 million ounces is required to replace this production.
· Hierarchal management-slow to make decisions.
· Exploration subject to committee review and budgetary constraints.
· Limited exploration since 1998.
· Only a small number of companies to choose from.



Junior Exploration Companies:
Pros:
· Responsible for 70% of discoveries.
· Growing their gold.
· Quick response management.
· Innovative geologists; prepared to see the unconventional.
· The onset of the Kondratieff winter suggests the largest bull market in gold in the entire cycle. In that environment share prices
rise faster than those of their production counterparts.
· A major discovery positively impacts the share prices of most exploration companies.
· An ability to release regular news in progress.
· Management usually owns a large stake in the company and has a vested interest in achieving positive results on the behalf of all shareholders.

Cons:
· Management not trusted - think Bre-X
· Viewed as very high risk investments.
· Investors don't understand news releases, because they are usually not geologists-and are unable to evaluate a discovery in progress.
· Poor liquidity; small market caps-not suitable for most investment funds.
· Difficulty in raising money; major dilution at low share prices.


Evaluating Juniors:
The key is Management. The Long Wave approach, developed by my team at Bolder Investment Partners is subjective but still useful.

A Simple Evaluation System:
Management: 30 Points
· History
· Integrity
· Technical skills
· Management skills
· Relationships
· Ownership in the company

Properties: 20 Points
· Grass roots/discovery/gold in the ground
· Access/Power/Water

Blue Sky: 15 Points
· How big could this be?

Political Risk: 15 Points · A, B, C, or F
· A = Quebec
· F = Venezuela, Ecuador

Market Capitalization: 15 Points
· Comparative values
· Value of gold in the ground

Promotion: 5 Points
· How well does the company get the word out?
· Conservative versus flashy

I much prefer investing in juniors versus seniors in a gold bull market, because:

· There is significantly more upside price potential, because of the leverage.
· Easy to be selective. There are plenty to choose from. Follow the management.
· Exciting to follow progress; discovery-resources-reserves.
· Management is usually dedicated to enhancing shareholder value. It wins, too.

So there you have it, I believe that gold at this point in the Kondratieff cycle is a low risk investment and good junior gold mining shares are arguably an even lower risk than their senior producing counterparts. Please direct any questions, comments or queries to:

Ian Gordon, The Long Wave Analyst
Bolder Investment Partners, Ltd
Phone: 604-742-3200
Email : igordon@bolder.net
www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca
 By Michael Miller

04/06/2009  2:15PM

A shareholder called this morning to say, “This is a confusing market. Gold is pushing lower. We seem to be in a total deflationary market.” The real estate/housing sector is proving to be quite influential. Maybe by deflating all other properties/commodities this is a good way to “inflate” real estate and housing or protect values in their well-recognized fall. If everything in the world marketplace declines (or increases) pro rata is there an economic impact?

Other than hot air, my life’s experiences in the market place have been this: it is easier for prices to fall than rise. Many years ago Lee Erdal, a retired director cautioned me about offering opinions on the spot price of gold. It is beyond my control or technical ability to predict. I appreciate your thoughts on the subject. I do know, however, that a little interest in gold or a real undervalued gold mine equals other forms of insurance (peace of mind). It beats worry or sleeping pills.
 By bluejay

04/06/2009  1:48PM

Last on gold is $869.90 off $24.20
Last on Silver is $12.11 off $0.64
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.81
Gold/XAU Index Ratio 7.05

Well, well, well, everyone is selling gold today. Gee, it must be nice to have the luxury to think stupid with your future.

Gold is in a decling phase prior to breaking the $1000 level sooner than most people think. This is the time you buy, not sell.

Soon after April 15th the push begins to reach the $1000 level and trade above it, to stay. The people that are selling gold today and possibly in the next ten trading days will be proven quite foolish.

Buy, Buy, Buy and Buy More!
 By bluejay

02/24/2009  9:21AM

In the previous submission the supplied link may not work. The article was originally posted to kitco.com under commentaries, "Silver again is outperforming gold" by James Turk.
 By bluejay

02/24/2009  9:13AM

Last on gold is 963.30, off 28.40.

Check out the following link to a James Turk article on the gold/silver ratio with a nice long term chart.

http://agoracom.com/ir/ECU/forums/discussion/topics/315466-james-turk-on-silver/messages/1076306#message
 By Dave I.

02/20/2009  3:52PM

Spot Gold price per once

high: $1007. 20
Low: $969.70
Close: $993.20
 By Dave I.

02/18/2009  12:44AM

The bail out you have stated is pretty much the one that is being adopted for the existing distressed mortgage loans that the 50 billion will be used for.
It is also being reconsidered for the next bank bail out stimulus. This also includes a policy that the bankruptcy court are planning to use for a solution to over indebtedness by official ordering bank and the bankrupt debt holder to renegotiate the mortgage as you recommend.
Congress would like your input.
 By bluejay

02/17/2009  11:26PM

Last on gold tonight is $970.90 after hitting a high of $975.60 earlier.

Gold, with the exception of the US dollar, continues making highs in world currencies. The meltdown continues to pick up intensity all over the world as current bailouts are proving inadequate.

The most intelligent bailout of all seems to have never recieved any attention from officials. That bailout out would be to immediately reduce interest payments on everything for everyone and extend term periods. This would immediately put additional money into the private sector and create demand thus lessening the current rate of layoffs and bailouts.

Dumb ass statement of the day:

Alan Greenspan - "We're not doing enough to help(some) US banks."

I remember Greenspan saying during the battle with CFTC Commissioner Brooksley Born in Congress over regulating OTC derivatives, "the banks should be permitted to regulate themselves since they have done such a good job of it so far." Greenspan needs to be put on the next space shuttle, he's a buffoon of the highest order.

We need to get real as Martin Armstrong has said, what's killing the American people is their debt obligations and the interest strangle-hold that the bankers have over them. Usury interest payment limits need to be capped at 10%. In some states they are as high as 27%, that's what's killing our economy. The system is all screwed up. Take for example the retired seniors who are practically getting nothing as interest on their T-bills who used to support their living expenses with that income.

If government had any guts they would close down all the banks that got us into this trouble in the first place and redistribute their customer accounts to the "good banks."

Then the shareholders of the bad banks could proceed with class action suits against all the board of governors in those closed banks and personally recover what they can from those clowns.

As far as the toxic assets are concerned, the American people are already consumed part of them. Some part of the toxic assets should be pledged against the bankers homes after all their other assets have been divided among the shareholders that they screwed. Also, the government should extend long term deductions, to some degree, to all shareholders of the closed banks so that they can recover some portion of their orginal investments as the government's colossal failure was to trust the banks.

Thanks Alan Greenspan, you POS.
 By bluejay

02/16/2009  9:02PM

Gold's last is $953.90, up $12.30.

The following was just reported at the jsmineset.com website:

It’s getting bleaker by the minute in Eastern Europe. In case you didn’t catch the latest from the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, he warned at the weekend how a growing crisis in Eastern Europe could cause nothing less than a total collapse in the West, or as he put it: “If one spark jumps across the euro zone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days.”

Sinclair basically says that we have the big Wall Street investment banks and the big commericial banks to thank for this mess that they have delivered to the world via their out-of-control leverage and greed.

I looked at the monthly long term chart on gold tonight and it looks to me that we are in position to put a rhino horn in on the chart which means almost straight up to the $1288 to $1300 area.

The battle between the bears(the big commercial international bankers) and the bulls was fought between $900 and $700 and the bears are currently running for the hills with their tail between their legs.
 By bluejay

02/15/2009  6:49PM

Last on gold is $937.50, off $4.40.

Another great article on money, debt and interest:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/schoon/feb132009.html
 By bluejay

02/09/2009  1:41PM

Gold $896.10 off $15.30

The following link is another masterpiece done by the Comex crime fighter, Mr. Ted Butler.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1234207643.php
 By bluejay

02/01/2009  11:46AM

Jake Towne from GATA has prepared an informative article recently submittred to their website. From Rubin, Summers, Geithner and Gensler to the gold price suppression game to a great cartoon of Rothchilds' stranglehold on all the inhabitants of the planet.

Check it out.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1233336321.php
 By bluejay

01/31/2009  1:10PM

Gold $927.10 up $18.80
Silver $12.67 up $ 0.32
Gold/XAU Index 7.48
Gold/Silver Index 73.17
Crude Oil 41.75 up $ 0.31
US Dollar 85.84 up 0.01

Gold's fourth up wave including its big push from below $650 in late July of 2007 has traded higher out of a massive nine month old declining flag formation. This prepares the metal to probe out the bear's defensive line at the $1000 level again. Once the psychological area of $1000 is taken out for good the proponents of the fiat currency system will get a sobering warning, gold will adjust to its rightful price based on inflation, alone, at the $2500 level.

I expect gold to push higher in steps and consolidation phases for some weeks or possibly, months under the 1000 mark while it tunes up enough energy for the final push above.

All this is well enough said but marking the time until gold does escape the reigns of the magical number the big bankers will be fighting it tooth and nail every day with, maybe, another planned bear raid in the makes. It is common knowledge that the bankers smothered the price on two attempts already in the August to September period of 2008 from about $970 to $740 and again, from $930 to $700 in October. All this was done with the blessings of the Treasury and the CFTC.

Our banking system, basically, is bankrupt. The problem is capital. Over the years, as has been pointed out a few times before, the trend of lower interest rates has eaten away banking reserves to a great extent. Adding to this problem the OTC derivative failures and there is no wonder the banking industry is insolvent. If it weren't for massive cash injections the big irresponsible ones would have declared bankruptcy some time ago for lack of capital.

So in the meantime, if the bankers can make money by forcing gold and silver lower while adding capital to the system then what is there to complain about from the Treasury? The bankers are serving the Treasury in two respects: manufacturing their own capital and putting the shine on the Treasury's and Fed's fiat money. Even the CFTC got the word to lay off the banks for manipulation as they just let them exceed limit positions. The question is, don't you think it is questionable when two or three financial institutions are short 25% of the world's gold productions like they were back in the July to August period of 2008?

The gold/silver ratio continues contracting at 73.17 while the ratio in its 10th day below a declining 50 day moving average line. In October of last year you could have traded an ounce of gold for 88 ounces of silver, now you just get 73 ounces. I have looked at the candlestick chart at stockscharts.com($GOLD:$SILVER)and it is clearly showing, in my interpretation, continued shorting of silver. In the long term this is positive but during the interim it could keep silver restrained some from doing what it wants to do.

Silver is being described as an industrial metal by the silver bears which it is during normal times. This is not true today with the world getting closer to a systemic meltdown. Today, silver is a monetary metal to many. As anyone in Mexico knows, it is their metal of choice for insurance during these trying times as well as for people in countries around the world.

Into the future the US dollar will not exist anymore. Considering all the debt against the dollar, what do you think happens to silver and gold when a new currency gets introduced? Silver and gold retain their value while the old dollar may have its value cut in half going into a new currency. If you hold dollars in banks or in hoards of cash you could lose 50% of your wealth over night on just one official announcement.

One closing thought and this is a big one: You need to brace yourselves for a possible collapse in stock market prices, including the precious metal shares. The XAU Index has major long term support just below 100 at the 98 level. The current last on the Index is 124.01.

The Plunge Protection Team has been furiously attempting to hold up the stock market over the last four months at the 8000 level of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages(DOW) and time maybe approaching when the level yields to a waterfall drop. Just below the 8000 area is the last remaining long term support for the DOW bull market at 7900. The 7900 level is where the 5000 day moving average resides. Remember, some years back when attention was drawn to the fact that gold broke the 5000 day average to the upside at around $350 an ounce? If this area gives way, WATCH OUT BELOW! My interpretation of a potential quick drop, over a few weeks or so, is into the 6200 area.

I suspect that the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index(XAU) could drop about 25% in the process. If you are interested in buying into the suspected drop of gold and silver shares I continue to feel that Agnico-Eagle, GoldCorp and Royal Gold are the better senior gold to stay focused on.

When much higher gold prices finally arrive, you'll know that you did the right thing if you purchased gold stocks on weakness. Jim Sinclair recently stated that with higher gold prices the gold stocks will be like some of the utility stocks of past years, stable dividend payers. If this will be the case, can you imagine what some of the best gold shares will go to in future prices?? I have said many times to friends and relatives that Royal Gold(RGLD-OTC) will in the future be in the 100's of dollars or in some other other currency maybe, a little less.

We live in a world where the current depression continues to bring us miserable news on a daily basis. Although there is great hope for holders of gold and silver and their shares, always be prepared to stand firm if prices suddenly fall for it will only be temporary.
 By Hans Kummerow

01/31/2009  10:00AM

During his first ten days in office President Obama has made several wise decisions. That gives me some confidence, that the problems of the US-Banking Sector will be adressed wisely too.
I have read his book "Audacity of Hope". Obama wants to lead. And since the financial crisis started in the US, Obama would probably like to lead the financial world out of this crisis by decisive action in the US.
Maybe next week we will hear more on the subject.
 By bluejay

01/27/2009  7:59AM

To Michael:

Why would a Miwok lie to me? The white man's history is full of lies. For me, I prefer to trust the unwriten history of our native people.
 By bluejay

01/27/2009  6:11AM

Gold's last is $897.60 and coming under renewed attack by the cabal at the $900 area.

No surprise in Reno yesterday as the our slime court system sides with the devil and against the Western Shoshone.

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page68?oid=77415&sn=Detail
 By Michael Miller

01/26/2009  3:04PM

There may be one historical correction with Bluejay’s essay below, and it is an important one. It is the reference to “California offered $5 bounty for any and all Indian scalps.” For the past three years I have been unable to verify this account. Background follows:

The Spaniard missionaries led the first serious cultural impact on native tribes in Califrornia with Father Junipero Serra as leader. Numerous accounts detail this phase of California’s evolvement from a primitive land to the most populated state in the US. Indians joined the work force as slaves and paid workers of the missions. As the missions’ power waned the Spanish/Mexican vaqueros, gauchos and senoritas and senoras gained large ranches and a way of life that evolved into a cultural with Indians and Californians. The Indians were evolving as well. In language of contemporary chatter, the Californian style was a pretty “laid back” life.

Richard Henry Dana, a young drop out from Harvard law school spent Two Years Before the Mast, an epic story about life in California as a sailor of a hide ship off the coast of California in 1830’s. Russians entered northern California looking for food and furs but relinquished their colony, sold its hardware to John Sutter and returned to Russia (1840’s). Canadian (French and English) trappers packed into northern California for trade as well. Indians had bad and good times with these emigrants. The heaviest actions took place between 1846 and 1850, mostly \in Monterey San Francisco and Sacramento. The US picked a fight with Mexico, wining the war just before that famous day, January 24, 1848, when John Marshall rode to Sutter’s fort in Sacramento with a poke of gold. The rush was on and it was a worldwide rush. Some Indians fared poorly and some succeeded. No accounts I have found document the $5 bounty story.

Maybe it did happen; but if it did, the offer could not have been an offer by California. I am confident that some people were pissed off with the Indians. I am sure that some Indians were just as peeved about the settlers in California. An interesting story about Indian fighting tenacity or skills took place way north in Modoc County. Captain Jack (Indian) held off the US Cavalry in a vicious battle. While the fight took place in California it was not by Californians. A puzzling cultural story is how quickly the Californians accepted the federal military take over of their homeland.

Last summer I bought a new book about California’s evolution in the 1800’s by H.D. Brandis, a professor at the University of Texas. I called him in Austin to challenge a couple of his historical presentations. I also asked him specifically about the $5 bounty (his book is really a good one). He said he had heard the story but in his extensive research never could find the source and verify.

My interest in the California gold rush pushed me to read about Francis Drake, Fremont, Vallejo, Sloat, Sutter, Castro, Larkin, Bancroft, Montgomery, Downie, and the unfortunate Juanita, who lost her life dangling at the noose end of a rope on a bridge over the Yuba River. Then there are the diaries of regular people. The survivors were a strong lot. They fought, they lived, they loved and they died. They accepted unimaginable challenges as the State of California evolved. They stood tall when necessary and bended as well. As a native Californian I embrace our culture. I cannot change a thing about its past. I may have an affect on its future. I believe many Californians continue to lose the simple lessons that are found in our social and cultural past.
 By Rick

01/25/2009  9:24PM

Native holiness would get a better shot at surviving in California.

What we'll watch is the Federal angle.

When state's rights wins this one in Nevada and the mine is allowed to procede, what will be the impact upon California's mines? Will there be as much hub-bub in the national news over Nevada's "economically depressed masses" as there is in California?

When there is no obstacle to the procedure of developement in Nevada, won through litigation by the criers of "economic depression issues" where will the same voices be when the Original Sixteen to One wants to go mining????

We'll watch this one closely. It is a really tough one for me. I mean it.

Putting it into perspective, why is it in Nevada that Native American heritage can't trump mining development when in California if there's a gnat in danger of sleeping too long the Feds shut everything down and want to do evrything possible to protect the Earth?

What a farce.

I wish the Nevada tribes hope.
 By bluejay

01/25/2009  5:38PM

It never seems to amaze me how Barrick Gold continues to attack the lands of indigenous people around the world and get away with it. Their confrontations with ancient native communities and their water resources has been going on for some time, especially in South America. In Tanzania, Barrick has been accused of atrocities.

If there ever were a politically connected gold company, it's Barrick. Just before George Bush left office the Bureau of Land Management handed over to Barrick some more very prospective gold claims in Nevada. Bush's father has a long history of involvement with Barrick Gold.

When the white man came west and conquered native North Americans it was an another atrocity. When gold was discovered in South Dakota it just became worse. There may have been treaties signed but the native Indians thought they were just sharing rights to hunt and fish on their lands. Otherwise, they were tricked in giving away their part of the greater Indian Nation of central North America.

The Indians, above all else, were respectful of mother nature and the earth. When the continental railroad was moving west, the Indians watched in disgust as passengers killed free ranging bison from their open windows with sticks of fire just for sport as the passenger cars passed through.

Indian communities were displaced by the great white father and when it wasn't expedient enough for the conquering white warriors, California offered a $5 bounty for any and all Indians scalps. The espisode, aside from slavery in this country, was one of the most repugnant time periods in our history.

Even today, the way our government treat descendents of the once proud people who just wanted to live and let live still remains disgraceful. Even Canada treats its indigenous people with much greater respect.

So now Barrick's attorney is discussing economic hardship for the Company concerning the current investment along with negative implications concerning workers and local communities if the court agrees with the Western Shoshone's claims that they are treading on sacred ground.

It would absolutely amaze me if a restraining order was issued in the Western Shoshone's favor against Barrick's intentions of desecrating their sacred land for a hole in the ground but I guess it will be business as usual for Barrick in getting their way, again.

I feel sorry for our native American Indians and I support them. Since the beginning of time Mount Tenabo belonged to the Western Shoshone. Barrick's big machines have recently begun ripping out their Pinion forest on the mountain where the local Indians have been harvesting Pinion nuts for centuries.

A judge's ruling is expected in Reno in the early part of next week.

----------------------------------------







Jan. 25, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Gold mine ruling may come Monday

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
RENO -- A federal judge intends to rule Monday on a complicated legal battle that pits religious and environmental concerns against the economic interests of hundreds of Nevada miners and the world's biggest gold mining company.

Conservationists and Western Shoshone tribal members are seeking a preliminary injunction to halt part of a huge gold mine project they claim would desecrate a sacred landmark where many have worshipped for centuries on Mount Tenabo in northeast Nevada.

"This case is about one very big, very destructive mine and about one special, unique and very important place, so important that people come hundreds of miles to pray there to their creator," said Roger Flynn, a lawyer for the tribe and the Great Basin Resource Watch.

"You can't pray in a blast zone," he said Friday at the close of the fourth day of a hearing.

Lawyers for the Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management counter that the 6,700-acre Cortez Hills project 250 miles east of Reno in Crescent Valley has been properly approved under the Mining Law of 1872.

They say any delay in digging the 2,000-foot deep open pit would cause an undue financial hardship on the company and its workers during tough economic times.

"Barrick is prepared to spend $640,000 a day for the next 15 months and a lot of that money will remain right here in the state," said Francis Wikstrom, a lawyer for Barrick.

Thirty workers already have been laid off and another 250 to 300 will be out of work and unlikely to find other jobs if the project is halted, he said.

"This is basically the only game in town in Northern Nevada," Wikstrom said about a state that produces more gold than any other, trailing only South Africa, Australia and China internationally. "People need to feed their families."

U.S. District Judge Larry Hicks said he will announce his ruling at 3 p.m. Monday.

"All of us know it is a very difficult issue for many people," Hicks said Friday.

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