May 21, 2018 
 Monday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By Hans Kummerow

12/18/2008  10:42PM

The big summer rally of the US-$ is probably best explained by roughly 10 Trillion US-$ that European Banks had borrowed from US-Banks earlier and that had to be repaid when lending among banks froze up.

The rally was also funded by large amounts of American investments in other currencies that where terminated and called back home when credit tightened in the US-home-market. I have no information about the size of this "repatriation"-Cash-Flow though.

Now both US-$ buying activities have come to an end and the fundamental trend is back. And the fundamental trend is signalling a much weaker US-Dollar. Much weaker than what we saw in March of 2008.

As long as market-participants are using gold as a hedge-tool against currency risks, the US-Dollar denominated price of gold will continue to go up while the US-Dollar floats against other currencies except the British Pound.

Because that is floating just like the US-Dollar and is nearing parity to the Euro. "Sic transit gloria pfundis".
 By bluejay

12/18/2008  10:13AM

Gold $855.60 off $11.80
Silver $11.03 off $ 9.33
Gold/XAU Ratio 7.57
Gold/Silver Ratio 77.57
Crude Oil $38.00 off $2.06
US Dollar Index 79.21 up 0.65

Gold's party of the recent past days got a wet blanket thrown on it this morning near the $880 level and has been back peddling ever since. It appears that gold will be on the defensive for a short unknown period of time to follow.

Crude this morning is lower at $38. Who would have thought? Thanks, J.P. Morgan. See, these guys are good for something after all. Gasoline here in Sebastopol, California was $1.59 yesterday and is expected to go a wee bit lower. This is a nice Christmas present for motorists.

The US dollar is doing a dead cat bounce this morning being up 0.65 at 79.21. The recent intermediate rally to about 90 looked much like the Fannie Mae rally in March of 2008 when it went from $18 to $35. The last on Fannie today is 67 cents.

I looked at the chart on the Euro this morning and saw a significant chart formation that it busted out of to the upside from about five days ago at 1.31. The formation is called a right ascending triangle. The five day run took it near 1.45. That's about an 11% move, not bad.

The Euro made its high at 1.60 in March this year and during the dollars big rally traded down to a low of 123.50.

I consider $846 to $850 as being support for gold over the days ahead. Go gold!

We're hitting the road in the RV on Saturday, weather permitting, to spend some Holiday time with our girls in Reno, Nevada. I hope we can get over the icy Sierras in one piece and back again.

Our family wishes one and all a festive and Happy Holiday Season.
 By Hans Kummerow

12/18/2008  4:13AM

The sale of the US-$ aginst the Euro continues today at an unprecedented pace. As well as the sale of the Pound Sterling, by the way.

In Ä-Denomination the price per ounce of gold has actually dropped below the 600-line in today's fixing at London.

Physical gold is hard to get in Europe too. The mints in Switzerland are now working three shifts and still cannot meet the demand for coins and small bars. And golden X-mas presents are available only with huge mark-ups.
 By Hans Kummerow

12/17/2008  8:56AM

The US-Dollar lost 8 cents against the Euro within less than 24 hours. I cannot remember such a wild move of the US-$ within the last 45 years that I know from personal experience.

When I was a young man, one of my teachers used to compare the circulation of paper-money to the issuance of corporate stock that is fully transferable without the endorsement of the secretary of the company.

In this comparison, paper-money bills were the share-certificates of the stock of the "issueing company", the national economy emitting the "stock".

Bill Bernanke has issued a lot of new certificates recently, watering down indivdual share-holder value. And the outlook for future appreciation or dividends is bleak.

Therefore the shareholders do what you would expect them to do, if stock is underperforming and outlook is dire - they sell. And it seems to me that there are still many stop-loss orders in the market.

Gold will probably go much higher in US-$ denominated prices.
 By bluejay

12/17/2008  6:57AM

WE HAVE BLAST OFF

Last on gold is $869.30 and its running.

Right on Hans!
 By Hans Kummerow

12/16/2008  2:10PM

The price of US$-Denominated gold will probably continue to rise as long as the current weekness of the Greenback persists in the currency markets.
But mind thou well, it is not gold that is increasing in value - it is the US-$ that is losing it's purchasing power abroad.
 By bluejay

12/16/2008  12:16PM

Gold is $852.50, up $15.60 and running.

Gold could experience some further strength today as it appears on the verge of breaking a declining 10 month consolidation period around the general area of $850. We'll have to wait for confirmation that this event has taken place with some trading in the low $860's.

Next minor resistance is $905.

The last time the metal pushed out of a significant declining consolidation phase like the current one it was in October of 2006 when it cleared $600 to the upside. Following in February of 2008 it hit $1,030, that's about a 60% advance.

Let's see, 60% of $850 gives this next possible move a conservative chart chance of hitting $1,360. We'll just have to wait and see.

Go Gold!
 By bluejay

12/15/2008  10:21PM

Last on gold is $836.90.

The following link with a lead comment and follow-up story clearly supports what I said a few nights ago, crisis are created for devious reasons. This is an old time and tested Rothschild trick. The TARP a bailout plan for the banks, I don't think so.

http://agoracom.com/ir/ECU/forums/discussion/topics/296676-bankers-buying-spree/messages/1026491#message
 By bluejay

12/15/2008  6:46PM

The last on gold is $833.70.

Gold finally surmounted the troublesome $830 today after being higher at $843. There is some more resistance higher up on the chart at $850 and below from a descending recent tops connected line.

Like Hans has said the dollar is looking suspect at the moment. Since the it gave up the 84 support level recently it has preceded to sink to a last of 82 in just a few days. watch out below!

The OTC Pink Sheet market maker took in 6,000 shares of our stock today at 2 cents, what a joke.

The ridiculous trading of our stock is reason enough to always have in some stink bids to keep this guy honest. The trader is probably some young kid in the business for a few years or so that also watches, maybe, another 100 or so inactive issues.

What is really sad is the incompetent broker that failed to adequately represent his customer in securing the best available price. The poor seller ended up with a gross of $120 minus the cost of the ticket which might have been anywhere from $25 to $50 because our stock on the Pink Sheets doesn't qualify for an automatic transaction which would have been much cheaper.

It's really sad for this seller as our company's shares in assets alone are worth over $1.50 in my humble opinion.

The 16 to 1 Mine as mentioned is more than likely worth from $10 to $15 million. The Brown Bear Mine has to be worth well over $2 million and our Plumbago Mine has to be worth well over $1 million and that's not to mention our other small past producers.

In the future all these past producers will be yielding high grade gold specimens valued by this inside market far in the excess of gold's general market price.

Hey Rick, I bought four two 1/2 ounce gold sets from the US Mint today. Each set has an Eagle and a discontinued Buffalo gold coin in it. The Mint produced this year only the Buffalo 1/10 of ounce, one quarter of an ounce and 1/2 ounce coins which they will not produce again, as far as they have indicated. These coins will hold a high numismatic premium as they will always be rare for only limited quantities were minted.
 By Hans Kummerow

12/15/2008  3:04PM

Thanks for your comments bluejay.

I shall write a letter to the team of Barrack Obama, asking them to reinstate the M3-Statistics for the US-Dollar.

By the way - the value of the US-Dollar is melting like ice in the sun-shine against all other major currencies since about a week. Markets have obviously given up on the US-Dollar.

That decline of the US-Dollar should result in higher US-Dollar gold prices, well beyond the 830 level. Because many traders are thinking in Yen-, Renmimbi- or Euro-Values. Not so much in US-Dollar price levels.
 By bluejay

12/14/2008  4:40PM

Gold trading higher at $828.90, up $7.90.(Just as a passing thought: it wouldn't be surprising to see the evil forces surface at the $830 level with more paper gold selling)

Thanks for your thoughts Hans.

I remember reading back a few months or so comments from John Williams at shawdowstats.com that the money supply would continue to shrink until November or December when he anticipated a trend reversal.

Usually when the banks take in capital, as with the current handout program to them, they would use it for justifying more loans which in effect increases the money supply. This time it's different as they are content to buy government bonds for safe income while keeping their loan activities to a minimum.

During the depression of the early 1930's in the US it was not the lack of capital at big banks that kept everyone down, it was the bank's unwillingness to make loans that extended the problem and forced nearly 30% of the workings class into the unemployment ranks.

The banks have basically halted their lending practices which I think the government is not pleased over. Obama's stimulous plan of handing out free money to the public in the suspected amount of $1 trillion, the first time around, will get the money supply moving higher quite soon.

It is my belief that this whole collapse was engineered way ahead of time with the creation of OTC derivatives. Brooksley Born the acting commissioner of the CFTC in 1987 tried in vain to regulate these derivatives but was beaten back by the likes of Greenspan, Rubin and Phil Gramm in the Senate.

I believe it was all setup by strong banking interests to purposely create a crisis. The aftermath of a crisis results in the public's wealth being destroyed to some extent and the influence and capital of large banks being increased.

It is a known fact that J.P. Morgan created a banking crisis in 1907 that cost Americans millions of dollars both in the stock market and in smaller banks which eventually closed their doors.

This crisis was one of the reasons that the Fed was voted in replacing the US Treasury for creating money which was approved by Woodrow Wilson soon after he took office in April of 1913. Wilson's campaigning for president was strongly supported by the banking industry.

Concerning contacting Bernanke to reinstate M-3 money supply levels, Bernanke takes his orders via J.P. Morgan and they from the Rothschilds in Europe. Not even you, being closer to the source than we are here, stand any kind of a chance trying to persuade by far the richest entity on the plant to change their money making ways.

These are the same people who believe, "Give me a control of a nation's money and I care not who writes its laws."

The following link has many interesting graph studies including the current unofficial chart on US M3 money supply.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
 By Hans Kummerow

12/13/2008  9:11PM

Deflationary and inflationary impacts of previously unknown size are causing will swings in the money supply M3.

After excessive growth during 2006 and 2007 we have seen a sharp decline in M3 growth during the last 6 month of 2008. It is now down to almost no growth and the trend is pointing at a further decline of M3-growth, that means deflation. The first actual contraction of M3 in decades is looming on the horizon. And that is despite all the huge cash-outlays in 2008-bail-out operations.

The only explanation that I can offer for this phenomen is, that the gigantic equity losses of the global banking industry have triggered balance-sheet clipping operations in the area of some 20 to 30 trillion US-Dollars. Most of this clipping is achieved by reducing the position "Loans outstanding".

The deflationary impact of such action is substantial and it may be a while until inflationary forces kick in again. The fact, the platin is cheaper than gold these days, shows how desparate some people are strapped for cash. More commodities will be sacrificed at very low price levels to raise cash during 2009. It is not only crooks who are manipulating the price of gold. Some very hard facts, like the need for cash, are supporting deflationary impacts these days.

Please keep that in mind, Mike and bluejay. And maybe, ask Ben Bernanke, to make the Fed publish M3 figures again. It is outraging, that the US-Gov't has discontinued the publishing of such important information for almost three years by now.
 By bluejay

12/12/2008  6:52PM

Gold closed the week out at $822.00.

The following is Jim Sinclairs thoughts tonight concerning the miscreants trying to keep the lid on gold:

I firmly believe the scams in gold, once disclosed, are going to set your hair on fire.

These will take the form of no gold gold certificates, paper gold rather than bullion confirmed as bullion to simply taking your money, sending you a confirmation without anything whatsoever behind it.

Dr. Feketeís warning of gold scams donít even scratch the surface of what I assure you will surface.

Just because someone says or writes what you want to believe, donít for a second assume the author has ethics.
 By bluejay

12/12/2008  10:24AM

Gold $824.30 up $4.60
Platinum $819 down $17.00
Silver $ $10.21 down $0.10

The platinum price has moved under gold's for the first time since 1996. Sure, this in effect is being caused by the current world recession with 50% of platinum's yearly production consumed for industrial applications. The remaining past production of 40% goes for jewelry, Japan consumes 90% of this amount, with the remaining 10% going for investment purposes. It is suspected that these last two percentages are on the increase due to wealth protection demand.

Very little has been written about the suspected increased demand for platinum bullion coins. Holding platinum, to some degree, may be more important that holding gold just based alone on its scarcity. Currently there is 16.67 times more gold mined than the metal with silver's yearly totals being 100 times greater.

Currently there is so much hot money flying around in markets that opportunities do surface once in awhile with price extremes. If you want to bet on scarcity ruling during the hyperinflationary environment coming then platinum bullion coins may have a place in your investment survival kit.

Platinum is down over 60% from its recent highs and remains oversold in comparison to gold.

Some backs back Mr. Jim Rogers was asked if he would buy platinum when it was trading higher over $2,000 an ounce. His answer was, "I'm not interested in platinum at current levels." What do you think he would say today at $813?
 By bluejay

12/11/2008  9:49PM

Last on gold, after hitting a low tonight of $804 in Asian markets, is $813.60.

The news tonight is the lower US dollar at 83.26. This is significant as it is trading under the weekly established trading range of 84-89. At the same time it is apparent that the Plunge Protection Team(PPT) and the big banks are working over-time at pressuring gold lower in an attempt to effect the dollar to recover some and rally.

It feels like a big push on gold is coming. Two days ago the cartel had one of their stooges attempt to freighten believers in the metal when he put out the story that the IMF would sell 3,000 tons of gold and in the following weeks gold would trade down to $455.

Someone is running scared with their gold and silver short positions. Putting out that type of information spells desperation.
 By bluejay

12/11/2008  1:12PM

The link in a few entries below does not work. You'll have to go to youtube.com directly and search: Federal Reserve Scam - How It Happened And What It Means.
 By bluejay

12/11/2008  12:26PM

Gold is trading lower at $818.40 down from a high today of $830.

The latest data from the World Gold Council shows that demand for coins, bars, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) doubled in the third quarter to 382 tonnes compared to a year earlier. This matches the entire set of gold auctions by the Bank of England between 1999 and 2002.
 By bluejay

12/11/2008  8:27AM

Last on gold this morning is $829.70.

It appears that all the voodoo magic that the spin doctors have thrown at gold since late July is over for a while.

To learn more on the origin of the spin doctors, or the money mafia, view the link below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAcjTqLBuzA&NR=1
 By bluejay

12/10/2008  5:17PM

Last on gold is $803.20.

Tremendous Liquidity Transmutes Into Unprecedented Inflation

Jim Sinclair December 10, 2008 at 4:42 pm

Dear Friends,

I believe through the $2 trillion of fiscal intervention stimulation, a number I hear from the inside, the 8.5 trillion total so far is going to $20 trillion. Before this is all over the tremendous liquidity will transmute into inflation without precedent.

That is what you heard from Gold today.

The general equity rally in the early 30s was a humdinger so expect that rally to occur in the USA.

The only difference is when the monetary cat is let out of the bag by fiscal spending that Fat Cat will not go back into the bag. Gold will be launched into a multi-year phase of the long term bull market even when the equity rally in this bear equity market completes itself.

That encapsulates all you need to know concerning gold and the US dollar.

Respectfully yours,
Jim
 By bluejay

12/09/2008  8:54PM

Gold is pushing higher with a last sale of $779.30. Is this the beginning of the next major upleg?

I've recently been hearing some disturbing speculation concerning the government's plan in the future to enact a special tax on gold bullion profits. The numbers I've heard range from 70% to 90%. Concerning how people generally feel towards oil company profits when gas prices were high, I strongly feel that the majority, who will miss the expected big run up in gold values, will not oppose this new law directed at the minority who had foresight.

The Homeland Security legislation defines gold bullion as being valued at two times the last gold price and below. Could this be for future confiscation purposes?

It's interesting to note that since the US Mint stated that they will no longer be making certain types of gold coins again that some of their past bullion coins have now taken on numismatic premiums.

One such series is the Buffalo half, quarter and one tenth ounce coins which were made just for one year. The last time I checked these coins were selling for a premium in excess of two times gold's price. Many people believe if you are concerned about a coin's integrity then the best way to safely buy it is in a graded state by a reputable grading service.

If you do have an interest in graded gold coins the perfect grading is MS 70. My favorite grading service is PCGS. I believe PCGS has graded over $11 billion worth of coins in their history. Also, these people grade about 100,000 coins a month.

You can search PCGS on the net and learn more concerning their services along with grading levels.

In the the time period ahead I see growing demand for gold coins in the excess value of two times the metal, gold affiliated companies with limited to no debt along with all types of gold specimens.

If the company can extract its highly valued gold specimens I see it significantly impacting our earnings along with improving our general financial health. Once income starts to flow, our valuable properties will support rich dividends to shareholders that have been more than patient over past waning years.

Alf Field recently projected a possible price on gold of $10,000. Mr. Jim Sinclair did not take issue with his projection. If it becomes reality, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to grasp that the value of our share price would exceed $10.

The goof-ball that makes a market on the OTC Pink Sheets shows a last sale of 5 cents for our shares. To illustrate how crazy that valuation is just consider this, a reputable source has estimated the value of the Sixteen to One Mine alone at between $10 to $15 million.

If anyone wonders what would justify such a high price they need only to research the Weimar Republic experience. The parallel to the German War Reparations of Weimar in the early 1920's is the derivatives area today.

There is no avoding the arrival of the hyperinflationary cyclone. All we can do is prepare for it.

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