November 21, 2017 
 Tuesday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

Page 1 | Page 2 | Page 3 | Page 4 | Page 5 | Page 6 | Page 7 | Page 8 | Page 9 | Page 10 | Page 11 | Page 12 | Page 13 | Page 14 | Page 15 | Page 16 | Page 17 | Page 18 | Page 19 | Page 20 | Page 21 | Page 22 | Page 23 | Page 24 | Page 25 | Page 26 | Page 27 | Page 28 | Page 29 | Page 30 | Page 31 | Page 32 | Page 33 | Page 34 | Page 35 | Page 36 | Page 37 | Page 38 | Page 39 | Page 40 | Page 41 | Page 42 | Page 43 | Page 44 | Page 45 | Page 46 | Page 47 | Page 48 | Page 49 | Page 50 | Page 51 | Page 52 | Page 53 | Page 54 | Page 55 | Page 56 | Page 57 | Page 58 | Page 59 | Page 60 | Page 61 | Page 62 ]

 By bluejay

08/18/2008  10:00AM

Gold $797.80 up $11.80
Silver $13.11 up $ 0.41
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.68
Gold/Silver Ratio 60.85

In past submissions to the Forum I have stressed that weakness in gold and silver coming from the New York markets is a paper market. The CFTC says that there are adequate supplies of the metals on deposit in vaults but is that really true?

The following is a advisory posted at kitco.com:

IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.

Where is all the silver?

A report posted to the ECU forum page at Agoracom.com by a member living in Ottawa states that there are no bullion silver coins, silver bars or junk silver available from local coins dealers.

The same member states that coin dealers say that there is an eight week waiting period for these silver products.

It appears that there are two silver markets: a paper commodities market that determines world prices and a physical market where prices are unsure.

While there seems to be great pressure on the price of silver recently at the commodity exchanges with buyers at the retail level finding delivery delays, what is one to think?

One end result here is obvious, the market on physical silver bullion coins will be carrying a far greater premium than what used to be the norm.
 By bluejay

08/15/2008  10:41AM

Gold $786.00 off $19.70
Silver $13.04 off $ 1.10
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.66
Gold/Silver Ratio 60.28

Visions of 1976 come to mind today as gold is trading below the $800 level. In August of 1976 I was hearing nothing but negatives concerning gold as it dropped below the $100 mark and was being verbally whipped by every media outlet in town.

Following the oil crisis and Israeli/Egyptian conflict in late 1973, gold topped out at just over $200 an ounce early the following year.

It was in August of 1976 at near $95 that gold made an important low. Not too far in price from where the US abandoned paying gold out for dollars when President Nixon, basically, closed the gold window and effectively took the country off the gold standard on August 15, 1971.

August is seasonally a quiet month in gold for the commercials and one might wonder, why it wouldn't make sense for the anti-gold miscreants to do their dirty deeds against believers in gold during this time of the year? The element of surprise is an old trick used in making and continuing wars since the beginning of time with degrees of success.

The important point to remember is that the anti-gold legions have successfully won some battles but they continue to lose the major war on gold.

Could it be any coincidence that gold's unexpected sell-off is going full force this August and could it be the month of another major low for gold like it was back in August of 1976?

In 2006 gold made an important intermediate low in September of 2006 at $555 very near in time of the year to the other mentioned intermediate lows. It would appear reasonable to make the assumption that this year's sudden weakness will either end today(low so far is $774.90), or in going forward in just a matter of days.

Way far in the distance hidden by media attacks, Jim Sinclair is calling for gold to surpass $1400 an ounce in February of 2009 or possibly a few months later. His superior batting average is in a stand alone category.

Based on the media's track record they will be wrong again and will have delivered another great dis-service to those who allow their minds to be ravaged with all their continuing arrogant propaganda concerning the doom of gold.
 By bluejay

08/12/2008  8:23PM

Gold $806.90 off $3.90
Silver $14.47 Unch
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.73
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.76

Today, 8-12-08, Lawrence Williams from Mineweb made some preposterously suspect comments to their readership:

On the way up to its(gold's) high point of $1,030.80 an ounce, which now seems almost a distant memory(????), gold was moving up along with the oil price as the dollar sank to unprecedented recent depths. Gold then stuttered as oil continued to rise and the dollar to sink, never regaining its peak, while oil went on to a heady $147 a barrel as the dollar continued its weakness.

It's now only taken a month for all to change. The dollar is strengthening by the day as the oil bubble has burst(????) and the black gold has lost over 20 percent of its peak value against the dollar - and whether it has dragged gold down with it, or vice versa, gold has also tumbled by over 20%, putting both effectively into defined bear market territory(????).

Most of the above is no more than cheap propaganda.

Mr. Williams makes the case for a poor relative strength performance of gold compared to oil and the dollar but fails to tell the truth why it acted that way: by the help of the cental bankers of the world that are scared to death that a continuing higher gold price will focus suspicion upon their weakening paper currencies.

Mr Williams says that the gold price above $1,000 is a distant memory. The days of gold being fixed at $35 an ounce is a distant memory.

Mr. Williams says that the oil bubble has burst. Please, give your readers some credit for intelligence. The dot.com and housing market were burst bubbles. Oil is in a very strong bull market that just got ahead of itself, nothing more.

The last questioned statement by Mr. Williams has to be the joke of the day: "Putting both(oil and gold) into defined bear market territory." OK Mr. Williams, why don't you define your defined bear market territory phraseology? Gold is in a major bull market and has been in it since it traded above $350 some years back. In my opinion, gold would have to close below $400 to be in bear territory again.

If central bankers hadn't messed with gold's price since 2001 the royal metal would be selling for well in the excess of $2,000 an ounce.

The central bankers have a license to steal from simple folks like the shareholders of the Sixteen to One Mine: they suppress gold's price while making our company carry the burden of increasing prices for labor and materials in THEIR inflation that THEY created with THEIR printing presses.

Gold's last sale is $811.30.
 By bluejay

08/12/2008  12:47PM

Last on Gold is $817.10.

The following was posted to the jsminset.com website earlier today.

Jim Sinclair's Commentary:

Those OTC derivatives continue to humble the once high and mighty. It is far far from over.

UBS swings to loss as customers withdraw cash
Troubled bank plans restructure; new finance chief appointed
By Simon Kennedy, MarketWatch

Last update: 10:13 a.m. EDT Aug. 12, 2008LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Beleaguered Swiss bank UBS on Tuesday reported a second-quarter loss of 358 million francs ($331 million) and said it would restructure by separating its investment banking and wealth management arms after nervous clients withdrew more cash in the quarter.

The bank's fourth consecutive quarterly loss compared to a profit of 5.55 billion francs a year earlier and came after it warned in July that its bottom line would be at or slightly below break-even for the quarter.

The latest loss included around $5.1 billion of further write-downs and provisions of $900 million linked to its recent settlement of a U.S. probe into the sale of auction-rate securities.

The bottom line would also have been far worse if it wasn't for a tax credit of 3.83 billion francs, which was significantly more than the 3 billion franc credit expected.

Shares in the group wavered between gains and losses and were down 0.8% in afternoon trading as investors balanced the weak results against welcome restructuring plans and a further reduction of its remaining exposure to risky debt.

"We would characterize the results themselves as largely disappointing, with weak inflows and underlying investment bank division revenues," said Matthew Clark, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

"However, risk asset reductions, governance improvements and proposed separation of the units may be better received," he added.

More...
 By bluejay

08/11/2008  10:58PM

Last on Gold is $805.10. The following few sentences are an excerpt taken from a Jim Sinclair commentary on Georgia tonight:

It may well be that the friends of the dollar and enemies of gold are gearing up for the final battle as the dollar bulls fail to see the forces being marshalled against them right outside their windows.
 By bluejay

08/11/2008  6:06PM

Gold $823.00 off $32.50
Silver $14.64 off $0.63
Gold/XAU Ratio 6.02
Gold/Silver Ratio 56.22

Gold took a severe beating today closing off $32.50 at $823.00. This is the start of the fourth straight week of declining prices. The weakness has surprised followers of the metal and has freightened many.

Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com has repeatedly stated that nothing has changed. So, what's up? He has stated that the OTC derivative problems can't be fixed.

The problem is that the banking system is in BIG trouble and the Fed is beside themselves in the continuing cashing out of maturing CD's looking for safe heaven.

Where is this money to go? One place that the Fed doesn't want it to go is into gold, other precious metals and the producing companies. To their mind, these acts would undermine their power and be counter stabizing to the ailing banking system.

There is nothing more unsettling to the Fed than witnessing long lines of people at banks wanting their money. If you don't think this is a serious problem just ask the people that lost millions in the IndyMac Bank failure in California that was the second largest bank failure in U.S. history.

The Fed is a member of the powerful Plunge Protection Team which also includes the Treasury, SEC and the CFTC. These people rig markets. The days of free markets in this country are over and maybe others, they just don't exist anymore.

The proof of this is, why are hedge funds allowed by the SEC to depress prices of precious metal companies with "out of control" naked short selling. This means for the people that don't understand it that the hedge funds can sell shares that they don't own or are unable to borrow. To me, this is a crime.

During the past 16 days someone or some entity has been forcing gold lower and they are doing almost all of this selling without physical gold.

In an article in the Wallace Street Journal by David Bond on June 28, 2008 he quoted, in his words, a well placed China guy. The source said:

1- China has a problem. What it would like to do is convert its huge holdings of U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries into gold.

In response, Mr. Bond asked the following question:

Then why not start buying gold?

2- We can't. The minute the word gets out that China is unloading all, or any part, of its $1 trillion in U.S. paper to buy gold, the game is up. Two things happen: the price of gold goes to $10,000 and the current value of the U.S. dollar falls to about 10 cents.

I have attempted to offer guidance based upon interpretation of charts and quoting smart people and presenting articles over the years.

I can not control the suspected negative exploits of the anti-gold element that is currently represented by the PPT to cast mud all over the shinny metal in hopes of dissuading bank withdrawals from being directed into it.

The really sad concern is that as Americans we are witnessing an ugly fact: while our government employees are depressing gold and the producing company's shares the Chinese are gladly scooping them up in a slow and methodical manner.

The Chinese will not buy in excess of 4.99% of any listed company which negates their obligation to report their new ownership to the SEC as the process continues to divest themselves slowly of the diseased dollar.

I feel like a parrot saying this but you should be buying more gold on this deepening reaction to protect your wealth factor from inflation and to insure your financial future.

Does anyone know what's really going to happen next to our financial sector as the OTC derivatives continue to meltdown? Will we be told everything in a timely manner? I wouldn't expect it.

Protect youselves and take advantage of gold's current weakness.

Last sale on gold is $813.50.

What we are witnessing is a well planned and executed attack on gold. The Chinese are loving it!
 By Dick Davis

08/08/2008  8:47PM

Forum readers may also be interested in an interpretation of Wizard of Oz.

Google: Wizard of Oz allegory
 By bluejay

08/08/2008  8:38AM

Gold $853.10 off $19.20
Silver $15,43 off $0.75
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.85
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.29

As the paper factory proponents pull out all the stops to discredit our gold insurance policy its seems timely to interject some perspective while the miscreants from the paper factory continue to make the royal metal swoon for the third straight week.


The Four Tires of the Apocalypse

By Darryl Robert Schoon
Aug 5 2008 8:48AM

www.drschoon.com



The engine used to run on premium, e.g. gold and silver; now it’s being run on credit which over time will destroy the engine and everything else.

The euro, the yuan, the yen, and the dollar are The Four Tires Of The Apocalypse, an event that recently appears to have come out of nowhere. It didn’t. Its apparently sudden appearance is new only to those who wished to see otherwise.

The destructive juggernaut now bearing down on the financial house of cards constructed by central bankers contained within it the seeds of its own destruction from its very beginning. Over time, those seeds would turn into Cerberus, the hound of hell, on whose mercy Bernanke et. al. now depends.

Epochs, like movies, need time to reveal protagonists and antagonists, as well as victims, villains and victors. We are now at the end of an epoch and as the final scene opens, the program notes are becoming disturbingly clear.

We find ourselves participants in the last and final act of capitalism and its credit based capital markets—or more correctly, credit and/or debt markets masquerading as free markets.

THE BIRTH OF CERBERUS THE GENESIS OF THE JUGGERNAUT

Capitalism did not appear until the Bank of England began issuing its debt-based paper money in 1694. The issuance of credit as money gave rise to capital markets where debt-based money replaced savings-based money

The Bank of England’s debt-based money drove out gold and silver coinage as Gresham’s Law clearly illustrates—bad money drives out good. No one would willingly pay gold or silver for what paper coupons would just as easily buy.

Capital markets are debt-markets made possible by the fiat issuance of central bank debt-based money. After central bankers’ faux money replaced gold and silver coins, commerce appeared to change forever; but that too is now about to change.

The rise of central banks parallels the substitution of paper debt-based money for gold and silver. When a disease spreads, so, too, do its symptoms. Replacing gold and silver with debt-based money was to eventually cripple commerce itself, albeit after a three hundred year run at the table.

Previous to central banking, commerce was founded on currencies composed of gold and silver. But with the advent of central banks, credit was substituted for gold and silver and after three centuries, credit-based economies are now on the verge of collapse, the juggernaut is in the shop and the long awaited apocalypse has arrived.

SOMEBODY BETTER CHECK THE TIRES

The euro, the yuan, the yen, and the dollar—the four major fiat currencies—are The Four Tires Of The Apocalypse; and although the economy’s engine, the credit markets, have seized up and are receiving most of the attention, somebody should take a look at the tires.

The mechanics, the central bankers, are instead focused only on the engine. Their solution again proves that good mechanics are hard to find. Like hacks at the corner garage, they’re pouring more credit into an already flooded engine, a sure sign they don’t know what they’re doing.

They’re not even looking at the tires. They should because the tires are fiat made of paper. The front tires are the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. The rear two are the euro and the US dollar; and it’s the two rear tires that now pose the greatest threat, the driver’s side rear, the US dollar, in particular—and the spare in the trunk, the British pound has a leak.

Of the four, the Chinese yuan is the newest, which in credit-driven economies is a plus, as usage in such economies equals more debt. Nonetheless, the Chinese yuan is not capable of carrying more than its present load although it is presently holding its own.

The other front tire, the Japanese yen, unlike the Chinese yuan, is well-worn and its tread is almost gone. Its debt load is enormous (the highest ratio of debt to GDP of all major economies) while its pressure, sic interest rate, is the lowest of all, incapable of handling more.

Currently at only 0.5 % because of an almost fatal blowout in 1989, the Japanese yen still hasn’t yet recovered—that the tire is still in service after its severe blowout is in itself something of a miracle.

But the two rear tires, the euro and the US dollar, are the source of our future trouble as they are particularly vulnerable to the continuing collapse of credit markets. The euro and dollar, like all fiat currencies, are dependent on the strength of their underlying economies, economies addicted to credit from increasingly insolvent banks, banks which are in far more trouble than presently believed.

Like someone who has HIV and has only confessed to having the clap, the money-center banks in Europe and the US are holding assets both on and off their balance sheets that are virtually worthless, with actual losses totaling $1.6 trillion, four times what the banks have yet admitted; and because the value of fiat currencies are a function of their economies, the collapse of the US dollar and euro may be ahead.

PUBLIC MONEY PRIVATE BANKS

It is now clear that central banks are using national treasuries to indemnify losses incurred by private banks. This should come as no surprise. Once private bankers and public government colluded to debase the currencies of their nations in order to enrich themselves, the joining of the two was inevitable and it is happening as we watch.

The last and final act of capitalism will be characterized by the looting of what little remains in our national treasuries as central bankers bail out the banks that caused our present problems. The only thing new is our surprise that it is happening.

The consequences, however, will not end there. The consequence of the public bailout of private banks will be the collapse of fiat currencies, currencies which have been the very basis of government and bankers’ power—power which will be swept away when fiat currencies collapse.

THE END GAME

Capitalism and credit markets—the bastard offspring of fiat money and central banking—are now in their final stage; and the default of fiat money will herald the end of the reign of central bankers in our affairs. No fiat system has ever survived. The present fiat system will be no exception to that rule

For those worried about private property, have no fear. Capitalism has nothing to do with the private ownership of property as maintained by private bankers and their corporate sponsors. The private ownership of property existed long before capitalism and will exist long after.

Capitalism has everything to do with central bankers’ issuance of debt-based money and the increasing power of government in our lives and the increasing profits of bankers at our expense.

Thomas Jefferson, the author of America’s Declaration of Independence understood well the threat posed by central banks:

The central bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the Principles and form of our Constitution…Bankers are more dangerous than standing armies… [and] If the American People allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the People of all their Property until their Children will wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.

With the establishment of the Federal Reserve Bank in 1913, the American people allowed private bankers to destroy the economic freedom the founding fathers had fought to achieve.

That first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations as Jefferson warned are now in the process of depriving Americans and others of their homes and property by the issuance of credit and by default on those debts

The founding father fought a war in 1776; and 137 years later in 1913, Americans ceded back what they had won when they allowed private bankers to establish the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, a central bank which would do exactly as Jefferson said

Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve System, the US has been a slave to bankers and those in government who do their bidding, Today, Americans are bankrupt and indebted to those they allowed to issue their currency.

Today, America’s once free markets are rigged and government officials lie openly and with impunity whenever it serves their purpose to do so, their words no more trustworthy than the statistics they produce in order to pacify a nation regarding the dangers they have put it in.

Soon, however, that will change. For the collapse of the fiat US dollar will also bring about the collapse of those who benefit from its false issuance—private bankers, corporations and those who govern for their benefit in our name.

Although we do not possess the requisite power to successfully oppose those who oppress us, we can however wait for their inevitable demise, a demise that will unfortunately be as devastating to us as it will be to them.

The collapse of the US dollar will be horrific as will be its aftermath. But the price of liberty is always high. It was high in 1776. It will be high again.

THE UNLEASHING OF CERBERUS

These days at Apocalypse Auto, the lights are on at midnight as the mechanics wonder what to do. This is not the first time the once apparently unstoppable US economic juggernaut has been in the shop.

Just a few years ago, when the dot.com bubble burst, the US economy was obviously badly in need of emergency repair. To Al Greenspan, the head mechanic at Apocalypse Auto, it was a dangerous situation.

In 1989, the Japanese stock market bubble had collapsed sending Japan into a deflationary spiral in which it was still mired and if the US suffered likewise, the US, Japan and world economies would be in deep trouble.

So, Al and the others at Apocalypse Auto did what they did. The story is best told by Professor Antal E. Fekete in The Bubble That Broke The World, June 2003

… Aladdin Greenspan let the genie out of the bottle. The genie is now at large, entirely on its own, roaming around the world, visiting disaster upon the economies wherever it may go: a depression possibly worse than that in the 1930s. Aladdin hasn’t got a clue how to put it back in the bottle because if he tried, the genie would threaten to plunge the world into another bottomless pit, that of hyperinflation.

Greenspan [explained] the strategy the Fed has developed to combat deflation. He would climb the yield curve, that is, go out to buy government bonds of all maturities, if need be up to and including the30-year Treasury bonds, in an effort to push interest rates down thereby enlarging the monetary base that would, according to him, contain the weakness in prices.

It is a long shot from open market purchases of bonds to a buoyant price level. After all, once in circulation, the new money created by the Fed is no longer under its control. It is under the control of the speculators. They will not necessarily deploy it in the commodity or stock markets, as the Fed is hoping. They may see a better opportunity for profitable speculation elsewhere, say, in the real estate or the bond markets [bold, mine].

Just as Professor Fekete predicted, central bank credit, sic “new money”, went out of central bankers’ control and created an even larger bubble, the US real estate bubble whose collapse is now threatening economies everywhere.

Central bankers are again trying to contain the forces they themselves set in motion. But, irreparable harm has already been done because the genie that Greenspan let out of the bottle was no ordinary genie, it was Cerberus, the hound from hell.

Cerberus, Hades’ three-headed hound, is now on the loose. It is a sign of the times that many still hope central bankers can save them from what is about to happen. But hope is as blind as the information upon which it feeds—for although the bankers let Cerberus out, they are powerless to put him back in.

GOLD & SILVER THE BANE OF CENTRAL BANKERS THE FOUNDATION OF OUR PAST AND FUTURE FREEDOMS

Darryl Robert Schoon
 By Hans Kummerow

08/07/2008  12:40PM

Slower growth of M3 still at record heights

The recent slow-down in M3-Growth from 20% p.a. to 16% p.a. is actually telling us that M3-Growth is still sky high.

Accordingly the monetary exchange equation is telling us, that inflation will be the inevitable result of this rapid expansion of the money-supply.

US-$ denominated gold-prices will continue to mirror the real inflation of the US-Dollar paper currency as long as M3-Growth is higher than the actual gowth of all goods and services sold during a given period of time.

This principle has been proven to work against all paper-currencies in the world. It will also work in case of the US-Dollar.

Until M3-Supply is finally reigned in at some time in the future the average price of gold expressed in US-Dollar paper-currency will climb higher and higher.
 By bluejay

08/07/2008  9:27AM

Gold $871.70 off $7.30
Silver $16.23 off $0.31
Gold/Xau Ratio 5.76
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.71

The shakedown in gold continues. Alf Field has revised his Elliott Wave Analysis by stating that a retest of gold's lows at $845 could develop during this current fishing line drop. Alf Field's batting average, calling major moves in gold correctly over past years has been well in excess of .900. So, I think we should listen to him.

The following is how Alf summed up his recent analysis:

The gold market is in the process of completing Large wave II of Major wave THREE. Once Large II is finished, Large III of Major wave THREE will commence. As detailed in Update 20, this should be a strong upward impulsive wave that could reach to above $1,500 before it is completed.

These forecasts are based on the rhythms detected in the gold market during its early stages. The magnitude of the various corrective waves helps to identify the type of wave sequence underway and assists in pinpointing errors when they occur.

Alf Field

Let's see, the expected trading range on gold from a $845 low to the exceess of $1,500 during the upcoming new phase doesn't give a person too much room for being right if they are a fearful seller, does it?

The three P's - Perspective, Perspective and Perspective will always rule.





6 August 2008.
 By bluejay

08/05/2008  11:56AM

Gold $879.40 off $14.40
Silver $16.62 off $0.27
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.92
Gold/Silver Ratio 52.91

Today is it! The beginning of much higher prices in gold and the gold shares.

We are in an price rich environment for some very smart people to buy from the fleeing public.

Just a little perspective shows how awfully wrong the scared and faint hearted public can become when their nerves get frazzled as a result of sinking prices within major bull markets.

For example, the Gold/XAU ratio currently is 5.92. This, alone, exhibits based on historical over bought/over sold levels that shares are on the bargain table. The old rule of thumb is buy above 5.0 and sell below 3.0.

A little more perspective is found on the long term XAU chart(the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index) with a last price on the Index of 149.18.

Subjectively looking back in years it is quite obvious that prices were held back during the time span of 20 years from 1987 to 2007 at 150 before they broke into new higher territory. This old resistance area is now support and will generally hold prices from going lower and will be used as a blasting off point for some exciting new all-time highs in the months to follow.

Concerning gold, this is what the maestro says:

Dear Friends,

Nothing has changed and nothing will. Gold will reach $1,200 and then $1,650. If I am wrong it is because gold will go even higher - and sooner than expected.

Sincerely,

Jim Sinclair

Don't be a sap by getting suckered into selling your gold and gold shares. This is the time to buy, not sell.

Gold selling lower at $876.

The reason gold is down is that the cartel is playing one of their last few cards in an act of pitiful desperation to keep your mind away from cashing in your maturing CD's for the purchase of gold and silver.

Haven't we been raped enough by these puppeteers?
 By bluejay

07/31/2008  10:07PM

The following is an article that was published in the Financial Times and submitted to jsmineset.com by Monty Guild with a brief comment:

Here is an important article from FT.com that we felt our readers would like.

FANNIE'S AND FREDDIE'S FREE LUNCH
By Joseph Stiglitz
Published: July 24 2008 18:25

Much has been made in recent years of private/public partnerships. The US government is about to embark on another example of such a partnership, in which the private sector takes the profits and the public sector bears the risk. The proposed bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac entails the socialisation of risk - with all the long-term adverse implications for moral hazard - from an administration supposedly committed to free-market principles.

Defenders of the bail-out argue that these institutions are too big to be allowed to fail. If that is the case, the government had a responsibility to regulate them so that they would not fail. No insurance company would provide fire insurance without demanding adequate sprinklers; none would leave it to "self-regulation". But that is what we have done with the financial system.

Even if they are too big to fail, they are not too big to be reorganised. In effect, the administration is indeed proposing a form of financial reorganisation, but one that does not meet the basic tenets of what should constitute such a publicly sponsored scheme.

First, it should be fully transparent, with taxpayers knowing the risks they have assumed and how much has been given to the shareholders and bondholders being bailed out.

Second, there should be full accountability. Those who are responsible for the mistakes - management, shareholders and bondholders - should all bear the consequences. Taxpayers should not be asked to pony up a penny while shareholders are being protected.

Finally, taxpayers should be com¬pensated for the risks they face. The greater the risks, the greater the compensation.

All of these principles were violated in the Bear Stearns bail-out. Shareholders walked away with more than $1bn (€635m, £500m), while taxpayers still do not know the size of the risks they bear. From what can be seen, taxpayers are not receiving a cent for all this risk-bearing. Hidden in the Federal Reserve-collateralised loans to ¬JPMorgan that enabled it to take over Bear Stearns were almost surely interest rate and credit options worth billions of dollars. It would have been easy to design a restructuring that was more transparent and protected taxpayers' interests better, giving some compensation for their risk-bearing.

But the proposed bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac makes that of Bear Stearns look like a model of good governance. It sets an example for other countries of what not to do. The same administration that failed to regulate, then seemed enthusiastic about the Bear Stearns bail-out, is now asking the American people to write a blank cheque. They say: "Trust us." Yes, we can trust the administration - to give the taxpayers another raw deal.

Something has to be done; on that everyone is agreed. We should begin with the core of the problem, the fact that millions of Americans were made loans beyond their ability to pay. We need to help them stay in their homes, including by converting the home mortgage deduction into a cashable tax credit and creating a homeowners' Chapter 11, an expedited way to restructure their liabilities. This will bring clarity to the capital markets - reducing uncertainty about the size of the hole in Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's balance sheets.

The government should set a limit to the size of the bail-out, at the same time making it clear that, while it will not allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to fail, neither will it be extending a blank cheque. There may need to be a drastic reorganisation. There should be a charge for the "credit line" (any private firm would do as much) and, given the risk, it should be at a higher than normal rate.

The private sector knows how to protect its interests; the government should do no less. As long as the credit line is extended, no dividends should be paid. To ensure that the government is not simply bailing out creditors who failed in due diligence, at least, say, 25 per cent of any notes, loans or bonds coming due that are not lent again should be set aside in an escrow account, to be paid only after it is established that taxpayers are not at risk. Any government loans should be cumulative preferred debt: the taxpayers get paid before any other creditors receive a dime. To discourage moral hazard the interest rate should be at a penalty rate and, reflecting the rising risk, increase with the amount borrowed. Finally, the government should participate in the upside potential as well as the downside risk: for instance, by taking shares (which it might later sell) or, as it did in the Chrysler bail-out, warrants.

We should not be worried about shareholders losing their investments. In earlier years, they were amply rewarded. The management remuneration packages that they approved were designed to encourage excessive risk-taking. They got what they asked for. Nor should we be worried about creditors losing their money. Their lack of supervision fuelled the housing bubble and we are now all paying the price. We should worry about whether there is a supply of liquidity to the housing market, so that those who wish to buy a home can get a loan. This proposal provides the necessary liquidity.

A basic law of economics holds that there is no such thing as a free lunch. Those in the financial market have had a sumptuous feast and the administration is now asking the taxpayer to pick up a part of the tab. We should simply say No.

The writer, 2001 recipient of the Nobel Prize for economics, is university professor at Columbia University. He is co-author with Linda Bilmes of The Three Trillion ¬Dollar War: the True Cost of the Iraq Conflict

Copyright

The article says it all.
bluejay
 By Hans Kummerow

07/30/2008  4:42PM

Money Supply M3 declining in US$ and Euro-Areas

After the M3-Reports for the US$-Area were discontinued in 2006 by the Bush-Administration other "Watchdogs" have stepped in to monitor M3-growth. For details go to http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

M3-Money supply has decreased sharply in the US$-Area in 2008 due to more restrictive lending practises by the banking sector. It is now growing annually at about 16% per year.

M3-Money supply has decreased slightly in the Euro-Area as well. Figures are published monthly by the European Bank Statistics Department. Euro money supply is growing annually at a rate of about 10%.

The declining M3-Supply should result in lower prices for many goods, just like lower prices for real estate.

The fundamental problem, eroding public trust in the value of the US$ is the excessive growth of public debt and/or public guarantees. 30 billion US$ for the rescue of Bear Stearns, 3000 billion for the factual garantee of all obligations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with more aggressive lending by both comanies on the horizon.

This sort of garanteeing for everybody and every amount is raising eye-brows around the globe.

Therefore, gold will probably fetch high US-Dollar prices for a relativly long period of time. From a Euro- or Yen-Point of view the price-increase in gold looks quite moderate due to the sharp decline in the foreign value of the US-Dollar.
 By bluejay

07/30/2008  9:05AM

" A Tale Of Two Cities"

The anti-gold miscreants are jumping up and down with gold's eighth day of weakness, currenting selling at $899.50 and the Chinese are jumping up and down with a higher dollar and a lower gold prices as they sell and buy in vast quantities.

If history is any guide, the fools selling gold are the ones that will be sorry.

Concerning gold and silver stocks, the Gold XAU Ratio is currently at 5.47 which over the past four years has been about the best time to buy these stocks. This has been an excellent baromemeter of timing for buying and selling over the years.

The general rule is: buy the stocks when the ratio is in excess of the 5.0 level and for intermediate trading sell the stocks when the Index is under 3.0.

Gold is in a generational bull market and until it changes, all sizable declines should be bought.

If you don't have your gold yet, this could be your day.

"Time and tide waits for no man."
 By bluejay

07/29/2008  2:36PM

Check out this article in relationship to the banking industry. Who's hiding what?

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2849132320080728?rpc=44
 By bluejay

07/29/2008  9:41AM

Gold $917.50 off $12.70
Silver $17.08 off $0.31
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.35
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.40
Crude Oil $120.55 off $4.18

I thought I would mention that there is a circulating story going around that crude oil will be taken down to the $50 level where gasoline prices will drop to $2.50 a gallon. The basis for the idea is to financially decimate Iran. There are comments along with the story that state there are secretly held very large unreported oil discoveries in and around Prudhoe Bay, Alaska along with coming news of gigantic unreported oil reserves in north Russia and in Indonesia.

The truth concerning these extremely large unreported oil pools remains to be reported. The inference was made that news of these finds will correlate near to presidential elections and the following months.

Also there was mention of massive oil deposits that could be brought to market from the states of Montana, Idaho and Utah that were staggering. The bottom line is according to the source that there is no oil shortage and that it has all been a total fabrication by the powers to be.

The circulating idea may be taking its toll on crude oil prices as of late but still, all this remains to be substantiated.

The financial sector continues to melt down and concern people and this story, whether real or planted, appears to be holding up the stock market, somewhat.

Last Friday the National Australian Bank wrote down by 90% all its OTC derivatives associated with the real estate market loans in this country and stated, "they have no more exposure to it." The news of this move was basically a vote of no confidence in our continuing troubles at the Fed where they a running here and there putting out insolvency fires. Congress just voted for a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that will insure that more printing presses will have to be ordered or some extra zeros will have to be printed on a new bills after calling in the old ones. Take your pick.

This is the second week that the powers to be have been dumping paper gold in the commodities markets. Now physical gold, that's another matter.

This story reminds me of the ones that surfaced saying that there was a process to increase gold supplies by processing all the available sands of the world. Then there was another media story about how bad gold was an an investment because it never kept up with inflation. I wonder why?

The gold bulls have there own stories as well. There was a gold options expiration last Friday that would require the producing of physical gold and gold was suppose to rally strongly starting on Monday of this week but big sellers appeared. I wonder who they were and continue to be?

I wonder what the Chinese are thinking by holding $1.3 trillion in dollar reserves? Are they going for the bait of this story which contends that there is no energy crisis or are they in the market exchnging dollars for gold and silver during these past few days of weakness? You tell me.

It is my humble opinion that the Fed and the Treasury have no real idea on how to stop the financial melting down process that will significantly effect us all and they are scared like crazy.

What ever happens, holding gold over the years has been the way to maintain your buying power, your wealth and your families security.

The scary part for all of us should be, what are they not telling us concerning the nation's financial health as a direct result of all the created OTC derivatives floating around on and off the books of American corporations, especially in the banking industry.

The National Australian Bank must have known something to take such a heavy financial hit. It's quite obvious what the thoughts of the bank were, jumping off a sinking ship is better than going down with it.

Prepare yourselves. Do you have your gold?
 By colby

07/22/2008  9:00AM

any word on when some new bars will be for sale on this site?
 By bluejay

07/21/2008  6:04PM

The head of China's economic department in the Party's policy office is advocating using their hoard of U.S. dollars in exchange for natural resources and mines abroad. Humm, maybe they'll show up in Alleghany. Maybe, the Board should give them a call with a joint venture proposal.

China urged to spend FX on mines, resources

Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:49am BST
Reporting by Zhou Xin; Editing by Alan Wheatley



BEIJING, July 21 (Reuters) - China should invest more of its $1.8 trillion of official reserves in natural resources abroad, a Communist party researcher said in remarks reported on Monday.

Buying tangible assets, from mines to farms, would not only help China's foreign exchange reserve management but also ease domestic inflation, Li Lianzhong was quoted by the official China Securities Journal as saying.

Chinese companies have been busy buying into natural resource producers, notably in Australia and Africa, but the only reported investments bought with the central bank's reserves are small stakes in oil producers BP Plc and Total SA.

Li, who heads the economic department in the Party's policy research office, called China "the biggest victim" of a falling dollar and said the government must do something to turn its stockpile of reserves, the world's largest, into "sources of wealth creation".
 By Michael Miller

07/21/2008  3:12PM

Speculation about gold price has been with us since gold sales were allowed to float freely in 1975 in the good old USA. Pundits and many not so pundits jumped into the gold excitement with newsletters, books or other ways to help, sway or just profit from people looking at gold. A few remain in business today and a fresh crop of pundits and want-to-be-pundits sprouted. I know most by reputation and a dozen or so from conversations. Personally, their opinions have little effect on the Sixteen to One. But not for the reason you may suspect.

Americans are spenders not savers. Gold as an investment or for financial speculation requires disposable income, savings or the sale of an already owned asset. Tomorrow, when you encounter friends, acquaintances or total strangers, ask them if they own gold or have any position in gold, such as a corporate equity. Keep a tally of how many you ask and how many have any gold under their control. Let me know the results. You cannot ask someone that you know has or does not have gold. I think you will find that the tally will be ten percent or smaller for those with some form of gold (personal jewelry does not count in this survey). This is a significant fact for future speculative beliefs.

Having said this, I do not suggest that a discussion like the one under this topic is meaningless. Quite the opposite! I read this topic regularly because not only the writers have something to say but also Bluejay, specifically, offers us views of pundits and others. There are too many items that influence the gold price. Has anyone written about the declining production in South Africa? Do pundits write about how the permit process in Nevada, a very important supplier of gold, will influence future gold production? If the US congress puts a royalty on gold mined from public lands, will that affect exploration? As India becomes more affluent, will that decrease or increase the Indians interest in gold?

Like Rick, I find gold in the streams, buy gold and own Sixteen to One shares as well as shares in other companies and have for thirty years. The market provides us an exit option when we choose to change our gold position into something else. Pundits and non pundits practicing in the gold sector influence future gold activity, no doubt; however I believe their value for predicting usable pricing trends and stock plays has little value for me. I do believe it is important for persons considering gold to develop a well-rounded background in the global Gold Sector to be successful. I believe this web site should be included as a source of information.

Martin, companies in production with proven reserves have forward sold gold for years. In a rising market it isn’t the smartest thing to do. My question has always been, “If Barrick, Newmont and other forward sellers can mine at such great cost to price ratios, how come they sell forward? The simplest answer is because they think they will get more dollars. Every time a company uses someone else’s money, a price must be paid. I am negotiating with some foreigners the right to buy bullion from future production at a price ten percent below the spot price at the time of sale. I have warmed up to the idea over the past two weeks since it was presented to me and fine it an attractive way for us to get the working capital to increase mining.
 By martin newkom

07/19/2008  4:21PM

we might want to entice our own
member of the BOD who is a very
successful cartoonist to insert
some subtle info about the 16-1
ie Odds Bodkins at the Sixteen
to One, etc.

Page 1 | Page 2 | Page 3 | Page 4 | Page 5 | Page 6 | Page 7 | Page 8 | Page 9 | Page 10 | Page 11 | Page 12 | Page 13 | Page 14 | Page 15 | Page 16 | Page 17 | Page 18 | Page 19 | Page 20 | Page 21 | Page 22 | Page 23 | Page 24 | Page 25 | Page 26 | Page 27 | Page 28 | Page 29 | Page 30 | Page 31 | Page 32 | Page 33 | Page 34 | Page 35 | Page 36 | Page 37 | Page 38 | Page 39 | Page 40 | Page 41 | Page 42 | Page 43 | Page 44 | Page 45 | Page 46 | Page 47 | Page 48 | Page 49 | Page 50 | Page 51 | Page 52 | Page 53 | Page 54 | Page 55 | Page 56 | Page 57 | Page 58 | Page 59 | Page 60 | Page 61 | Page 62 ]

 

  
 
© 2017 Original Sixteen to One Mine, Inc.
PO Box 909
Alleghany, California 95910
 

Phone:   
Fax:
E-mail:
 
(530) 287-3223      
(530) 287-3455
corp@origsix.com
 

      Gold Sales:  


(530) 287-3540

goldsales@origsix.com
 



Design & development by
L. Kenez