November 23, 2017 
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Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

04/08/2008  10:19PM

Posted On: Tuesday, April 08, 2008, 7:52:00 PM EST

Overconfidence Always Costs

Author: Jim Sinclair


Dear CIGAs,

The spin of the proper valuation of credit derivatives is that all is well and the problems ended with the Bear rescue. This meltdown process is now called a mortgage subprime problem.

The equity participants have signed on to this lie, as demonstrated by the demand for financial shares.

The risk in this overconfident spin is that it is blatantly wrong and risking exposure.

That exposure lies in the almost unreported and not discussed Fitch downgrade of a significant issuer of credit default derivatives in the municipal bonds.

It does not take a brain surgeon to understand the principles of credit default derivatives cannot in any manner meet their responsibilities should more than one significant failure take place.

Already the trend towards such a potential event occurring is moving east from California and west from the Sunbelt.

Now that Fitch has announced a major two-step downgrade, it puts tremendous pressure on the other rating agencies as they maintain double and triple AAA ratings for the debt of the remaining issuers of default swap derivatives.

Yesterday the shares of Washington Mutual rallied from an injection of $5 billion. This injection was meant to assist in the giving of a better mark to model cartoon value for their inventory of derivatives.

Today they needed $7 billion. The truth is no one really knows what anyone needs as the offending financial vehicles have no market in real terms. Of course the silly stock buyers turned around and became sellers.

The huge risk is in declaring the problem SOLVED while it has the equivalent risk of sitting atop a barrel of black powder while smoking a large cigar.

The potential back blast is that the SOLVED situation goes up in smoke.

Risks like this are not new. Last week al-Sadr beat the pants off the Iraq military even when air strikes had been called in. That was not supposed to happen. The US was sure it would not happen but it did.

You can bury the Iraq super-embarrassment, but not the $45 trillion in default derivative swaps looking like an accident about to happen.

Better spin would have been closer to the truth. Saying the problem still exists but is being controlled presently raises hopes that it will be entirely contained, but that is not the case.

Tight rope walking might pass in combat situations but is ill considered when used in the financial world where there is no patriot to save the day. There is no flag to wave and the motivation is to screw the other before being screwed yourself and take off running at any event.

I see the danger has been heightened by the extreme level of spin. This time I feel they are pushing a strategy that has so far functioned to the limit.

That may be the first major mistake in “Operation White Noise.”

The lock up in the credit market is not behind us.

Insolvency is the manifest and the alarm is capital requirement changes.

That does not repair the system. It makes it weaker.

That does not repair the system. It creates more danger.

That does not protect investors but instead puts them in the path of serious harm. This grandstand spin play is overconfident and in that sense the most risky move yet.

We wish the Fed well, however CONSEQENCES are not being considered and that is extremely dangerous.

Consequences cannot be avoided but they can be accelerated. Problems in the credit default derivative arena will occur.

Then what?

CONSEQUENCES

THIS is it! Are you prepared?

Ownership of gold is the first level of protection.
 By martin newkom

04/01/2008  9:34AM

There is near to frantic drilling activity in my area, Sutter Buttes and surroundings for natural gas by one or more
companies. I presume it's the
same elsewhere.
 By bluejay

03/31/2008  10:53AM

Gold $917.20 - $13.70
Silver $17.24 - $0.64
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.31
Gold/XAU 5.24

Barron's magazine for this week has a lead article of the bubble in commodity prices. This is more of the same from the anti-gold community to force down commodity prices along with indirectly pushing down base metals and precious metals.

On Friday the German banks spoke of the Bundesbank selling some of their gold holdings to shore up bank financial difficulties but the Bundesbank denied they would sell gold. The Bundesbank still continues to release a few tons here and there for local coinage.

Reports in the past have spoken of the Bundesbank leasing out or swaping out most of their reserves. The Bundesbank originally had the second largest gold holding behind the US holdings which have been, also, suspected of not being there anymore.

With the article in Barron's, this is considered to be just another propaganda push to sway the public away from precious metals indirectly and back into the stock market.

When these negative articles are published they are joined with fierce bullion bank selling of gold in the paper market, at the COMEX in New York.

Although it had been suspected that gold may have hit a low at $914 some days it continued lower to the $905 area where support surfaced.

After reviewing a recent article by Alf Field concerning gold's trading habits since this bull cycle started in 2001, it became apparent that gold has a little further to decline before a meaningful turnaround takes place.

Alf is forcasting a 16% to 18% retracement from the recent $1033 high. 16% equals $867.72 with an 18% fall equalling a price on gold of $847.06

The good news is that Mr. Field is looking for a price on gold of $1250 at the extent of the next rally.

Once gold is established over the magical $1000 area in the months ahead the whole psychology of investing in junior and exploration gold stocks will significantly change for the better.

During the time period directly ahead the hedge funds will be covering their naked short positions and will be going long this group. It is also suspected that the rich reservoirs of venture capital money will be finding their way into these recent laggards of the group.

The immediate time period ahead may be the last opportunity for the informed to move into juniors along with the exploration companies.

If history repeats itself the real big winners will be in the exploration sector.

During the last big push in prices gold advanced 53%, Silver 80% and platinum and palladium 82% each. The big gold stocks advanced during this same period just over 25%.

The Gold/XAU Ratio currently at 5.24 has the ability to trade down to the 3 level which would make the Index worth 417 with gold at $1250 or 667 if gold hit $2000 ahead into the future combined with intense public participation.

Currently the XAU Index at 175.36 is down 4.91 and looking into the future with significantly higher gold prices, we could see the strong possibilities of the stocks in the XAU, plus generally all gold stocks, moving higher from over 200% upwards to 400%.

A side note here is there will be some precious metal exploration stocks that will be higher in the multiples of 10's and 20's. You could hold five or ten of these explorers and with just one catching fire, with the rest just up nomimally, could still make you very rich.

Lower prices will always present opportunities within existing bull markets. Over the next few months opportunities galore will be ever present as gold is expected to be soft.

Good luck!
 By bluejay

03/24/2008  8:22AM

Gold $923.70
Silver $17.12
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.95
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.28

The following are some excerpts from a February 12, 2003 article by Jim Sinclair.

Sell-Off Today(by $30 to $352) Did Not Alter Structure Of Long-Term Bull Market.

The recent sell-off from the high in gold has not, in my opinion, altered the structure of this long-term bull market in gold.

Gold has always, and will continue to be, a market with supply/demand skirmishes between titanic forces and vested interests in the resulting price.

The almost straight up action of gold, followed by a similiar reaction, has all the earmarks of a forced short cover. The word in the marketplace is that we have just witnessed our first derivatives unwrap and market cover.

I expect this reaction to end either at the low today or $340-$343 or the next Fibonacci support level($332.50) outlined in the chart below.

As Harry Schultz said recently: "We have two choices when we experience such declines. To be disappointed with the market or as the Asian/Islamic interests see it: as an opportunity."
 By bluejay

03/23/2008  8:42PM

Gold $908.50
Silver $16.83
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.98
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.28

Another informative article has just appeared on the jsmineset.com website entitled, "The Financial Destruction Of The Average Man."

Isn't it strange that the caliber of this type of information and the editorial content never makes it to our newspapers and TV?
 By bluejay

03/22/2008  7:45PM

In the below entry on the second to the last line the year 2001 should read 2011, sorry.
 By bluejay

03/22/2008  5:49PM

Gold $919.20
Silver $17.21
Gold/Silver Ratio 53.41
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.34

The week-ends are usually good times when the markets are closed to do some thinking.

The Gold/Silver Ratio hit an intra-day high of 56 last week while closing at 53.41. This means for every ounce of gold you can trade it for 53.41 ounces of silver. The 52 to 56 area is a chart location of major resistance.

During periods of wide swings based on extremes in buying and selling pressure support levels and resistance levels just get overrun at times. The major trend is towards gold buying less and less silver in the many months ahead. This means one thing, silver is expected to apppreciate on a percentage basis better than gold but gold will always be the crown jewel, not silver, for security purposes.

The Gold/XAU Ratio with Friday's close stands at 5.34. This means, being above 5.00 on the scale, that gold stocks are very inexpensive compared to gold's last price. The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index price is divided into gold's price to get the Index figure.

Index followers bought gold stocks last week and will continue buying them next week. When the Index approaches the 3.0 level these same players will start to take their profits. That's the way it works.

The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index(XAU) closed out the week at 172.01. The Index high this year has been 209.27. The Index is spiraling lower and approaching a massive area of support in the 150.00 to 160.00 area. This area was significant resistance for 20 years from 1987 to 2007. Based on very strong fundamentals for gold continuing higher, a major buying opportunity is close at hand for the gold shares as we approach major support.

During bull markets it is senseless in calling tops but more appropriate in acknowledging areas for entry or reentry based upon sound long term support logic on the charts.

A Tuesday, March 11, 2008, the following significant article was written by Mr. Jim Sinclair.

Federal Reserve Action Announces New Loan System To Member Banks.

The Federal Reserve action today formalizes what has been the policy of the fed from almost day one of the visibility of the credit and default derivative meltdown and credit market lockup.

What is occurring is THE MONETIZATION OF BANKRUPTCY.

The predictable result of monetizing bankruptcy is a significant increase in inflation and a sharply lower dollar.

The action speaks negatively for the 30 year US Treasury bonds.

Waht needs to be understood is that there are more than $20 trillion dollars worth of credit and default derivatives out there.

The next key point is that nominal value of this $20 trillion of credit and default derivatives becomes full value when the derivative fails to perform.

This comes on a modest capital injection into a bond guarantee company that facilitates pinning a tin AAA debt rating heart on them; something that is a total fallacy.

The problem at the heart of the deteriorating credit lockup situation is OTC credit and default derivatives that have failed to perform.

The inviting conclusion then is that $200 billion is as (a) pimple on the ass of an elephant.

Nobody in his or her right mind wishes to see what is coming in 2011. It approaches the ?Day After? and ?Mad Max? in a financial sense.

The only protection is hard assets of any type, shares or kind, and the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, modernized and revitalized.

This time gold is not going to crater after achieving its max market valuation. That nullifies every top caller from $248 to middle-late 2001 without exception as well as those now so inclined. This will make mining companies very attractive businesses.
 By bluejay

03/20/2008  11:20AM

Martin

Thanks for the update.

The number one concern of the Fed is to not let the "daisy chain" of derivatives break.

If it did, the economy and the public would be sucked into a bottomless black pit of financial ruin.

As Mr. Jim Sinclair has said, there is no practical solution to the derivatives meltdown.

The Fed will try and instill confidence, while this continues, but putting bandages on a major crash victum that is slowly bleeding to death will not work.

We must protect ourselves. The only answer is to hold gold until such time that the anticipated financial wipeout has run its course.
 By martin newkom

03/20/2008  9:42AM

I read that now other investmt
bankers, ie Soldman Sachs, etal
are now allowed to borrow from
the FED. Res.
 By bluejay

03/19/2008  5:40PM

Gold $919.10
Silver $17.49
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.46
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.16

Gold continues lower tonight in Asian markets.

It appears since the Bear Stearns collapse that the anti-gold boys are pulling out all the stops to teach the gold enthusiasts a good lesson.

Earlier this evening the metal hit a low of $914.50 and currently is pushing higher at $925.10.

The Gold/Silver Ratio is at an important resistance area of 52.00 on its chart. This appears significant and gold may have already hit its low on this move.

Gold's abrupt weakness should be a lesson in understanding the freight that the anti-gold people had late Sunday night seeing gold above the $1000 mark and the following publicity that followed on Monday.

Well, what better way to inform the public that it was just a fluke than by gold hitting the skids directly afterwards?

Come on boys, do you really think that you can control a limited precious metal like gold while you flood the system with unlimited depreciating dollars??? Give us a break, please.

Gold continuing strong from its low with a last sale of $928.50.
 By bluejay

03/19/2008  11:54AM

Gold $937.20 -$44.10
Silver $18.37 -$ 1.30
Gold/Silver Ratio 51.20
Gold/XAU Ratio 5.22

Not too long ago Mr. James Sinclair stated that $100 swings in the gold price could become a reality. At gold $937.20 versus a high of $1033 Sunday night in Asia, we're almost there.

Gold is a tiny market compared to other markets. When you have so many players all stepping in at the same time, volatility is the result. Does this change anything? Absolutely not, gold is going forward.

At the heart of the problem is the Federal Reserve. As they run around plugging this financial hole and the many more expected to follow, they are ruining our money. They are making it worth less and less. This is an indirect form of taxation on the people that many just don't comprehend. The people just blame it on inflation but where does inflation come from? Inflation comes from the increase in money supply which the Fed is injecting unrelentlessly into the system just to save the fat greedy cats on Wall Street.

How did we ever come to this point? It was allowed to happen by the regulators. They did not ever choose to regulate or even control in the least, derivatives. Why? Because the amount of money made just alone on commissions for brokerage houses was just too good to be true for the Wall Street players and what is good for Wall Street, should be good for us all too, right? WRONG!! What the regulators were supporting by their inaction to safeguard the people was greed using an untested financial tool, derivatives. Now Americans must pay for the mess.

Mr. Alf Field recently submitted to kitco.com an article entitled "Till Debt us do Part" dealing with derivatives and the Fed. The following are some excerpts:

"The problem with drivatives is that these are individuals transactions between 2 or more parties. Often the transactions are arbitraged onwards to several other players. Everyone in the chain relies on all other parties to meet their obligations. If one party in the chain goes bankrupt, it can cause a domino like collapse of all the other parties in the chain - if the bankrupt party is a large player in derivatives. They are all "inter-connected."

"Bear Stearns is known to be a big player in the derivatives markets and must have a major counter party to many transactions with JP Morgan, given Morgan's huge derivatives positions. Hence Bear Stearns had to be rescued because of "inter-connectivity;" to prevent a melt down in the derivatives market. It can hardly be a coincidence that the bail out was routed through J P Morgan."

"Let us be clear about where this will end. It will end with the Fed and/or the US Governemnt owning or guaranteeing all the bad debts and losses from sources in order to preserve the existing system. It has serious implications for the value of the US Dollar, the international monetary system and for inflation. The vast quantity of new liquidity that needs to be created will almost certainly result in runaway inflation."

Today is a value shopping day for gold and other precious metals and the companies that produce these metals along with those that own properties that contain them.

While the anti-gold forces use funds that are guaranteed in one manner or another by our citizens to depress gold, they are on the other hand jacking up the money supply to increasingly historical levels which will support hyperinflation and financially ruin the common man.

Our only hope is to buy gold and the companies that own it in the ground.

Historically, with the Gold/XAU Ratio at 5.22, the Index is screaming buy me!

Historically, the buy area is above 5.00 and the sell area is at around 3.00.

Gold may be down $44.10 today but it is also the day of opportunity along with any other days like this that follow during this current spell of weakness.
 By Rockroby

03/18/2008  9:57AM

Show them the gold,just got off mining nerds and they have nothing on the 16 to 1 so i had to write them to tell them about this company.I did find another mine you can invest in close by; Bullion River to go along with the few others in this State Emgold & Sutter both Canadian outfits and their is a few more.
Get more pictures of the gold you are able to get out of this mine & the people that look at these websites will become more interested in the mine,just look at that sixty pound chunk of quartz with 300 ounces of gold in it now that is impressive when most mines are just looking for 1/4 ounce per ton to make a living.
Show them the gold
 By bluejay

03/17/2008  11:58AM

Gold $1007.10
Silver $20.11
Gold/Silver Ratio 50.08
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.99

The following was posted at 12:05pm today on the jsmineset website by Mr. Jim Sinclair:

M3 Camouflaging Attempts To Hide System Falling Over

Dear Friends,

The action of the Federal Reserve in declaring their lending on any collateral (which means no collateral in real value terms) to investment banks only instititionalizes what the Fed has been doing since all this started.

The most recent change in rates is an attempt to camouflage the enormous increase in the M3 that is inherent in the action to bailout an entire system now falling over.

I credit the Fed with making the situation obscure but the problem is going to continue to accelerate. There is no practical solution.

Gold last night ran to $1033 then settled back to the key number of $1024 where it sat until Washington woke up at 6:30am. $1000 to $1050 is an area that (they) will try unsuccessfully to restrain gold.

Gold is going to $1650.

When a commodity improves 655% the companies owning the commodity can only reflect that bull market, regardless of how hard any fund or funds try to stop it. Any such company with significant internal development will outperform.

Stay calm. Gold is headed to $1650 and I am almost certain that is much too conservative.

Regards,
Jim
 By bluejay

03/16/2008  5:32PM

Gold $1027.90 +$25.40
 By bluejay

03/16/2008  4:58PM

Shocking News

J.P. Morgan To Buy Bear Stearns For $2 A Share.

Bear Stearns(BSC-NYSE) closed Friday at $30 down $27 for the day. BSC made a high earlier this year of $159.36. Late last year the stock made an all-time high of somewhere in the neighborhood of about $175.

Bear Stearns' collapse can be tied directly to the fallout in the housing market, specifically the sub-prime market.

Now, people might believe that we are in the midst of a serious financial meltdown in this country which will be systemic.

No wonder gold is running, people are starting to get scared.

As Mr. James Sinclair has said:

THIS IS IT
 By bluejay

03/16/2008  4:31PM

Gold $1021.00 +$18.50
 By bluejay

03/16/2008  3:57PM

Gold $1014.90

Big push tonight in Asian markets.
 By bluejay

03/15/2008  12:33PM

Rick

Bill Murphy of GATA has lawyers working in an attempt to force the Treasury to allow an audit of our gold inventory at Fort Knox plus other holding areas.

The person to verify is a bonded and reputable CPA firm, not any government agency but is that possible? No way Jose!
They'll cite some conflict to national security which they seem to always come up with in order to hide suspicious activities.

Is the voice of the people really heard by its governments concerning the governments finances or stewardship of our gold? The English people were polled as to Gordon Brown's plan to sell a significant portion of Britain's gold some years back and the vote was 5-2 against. Did that stop Gordon? No. Some people have said that he is a puppet of the Fed and Treasury.

So, being realistic, it should continue to be just another very interesting conspiracy theory open for debate.

As to your question "where is everybody?," I believe they are up in Ontario and Quebec and other parts of the world where mining is supported by local government sudsidies.

The State Energy and Natural Resources Committee of the Senate is currently considering changing the 1872 Mining Law or abolishing it, all together.

What has been voted on by Congress already is to levy an 8% royalty mining tax on new mines and a 4% royalty tax on current operating mines in the country. What do you think that will do to start up operations and the existing maginal mines combined with a 30% mining cost inflation factor in place?

I don't believe that in this environment of spiraling mining costs a Senate approval of the proposed mining law changes would effect our company as much as others in California.

I see it effecting more the Idaho-Maryland reactivation in Grass Valley along with Sutter Gold Mines' expected feasibility study following their completion of drilling
just north of Jackson along Highway 49.

Our operation currently mines high grade gold for the jewelry industry along with other small amounts of ore to be poured into dore bars. As everyone knows our high grade sells for many times its gold content. So, I think our position is quite different than the other two.

We might, if the proposed legislation is passed by the Senate(with no presidential veto), be subjected to paying only a royalty on the gold content, but not on the actual sales price premium. This makes us much different but still, we are in a state that has not yet established itself as a proponent for its mining industry.

Hopefully, we will soon receive positive news from the board concerning a financing package.
 By Rick

03/14/2008  7:40PM

Bluejay, I value your input, so two questions tonight:

First, there has been some speculation as to whether the reserves in Fort Knox are still there. On the surface, it seems like great fodder for conspiriacy theory. Beneath that, we're all left with a speculative question....a subprime overwriting would seem like cupcake in comparison. Who's to verify?

Next...small cap or no cap, Allegany sure seems like a steal for a speculating developer. It is a sleeping giant. So where is everybody?

Given today's potential return, it would be difficult tie the recent court debacles to future risk.
 By bluejay

03/14/2008  6:31PM

Gold $1002.50
Silver $20.67
Gold/Silver Ratio 4.86
Gold/Silver Ratio 48.50

On March 12, 2008 David Vaughn in his article, "Gold Rules" carried this quote from Boris Sobolev who writes for resoursestockguide.com:

"Instead of trying to guess tops and bottoms, the best strategy is to continue to accumulate bullion as well as shares of junior producers, exploration and development companies on weakness. Gold('s) price is going much higher in the coming years and the prices of undervalued junior stocks are going to explode as they become targets for acquisition. A few short years down the road, the trepidations experienced today by investors in small cap gold stocks will look quite silly."

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