November 28, 2020 
 Saturday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

11/06/2007  6:54PM

Gold $835.40 last
Silver $15.74
Gold/Silver Index 52.87
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.31

Well folks, the gold bull market is roaring as I type.

The inflation talk has taken a back seat to more serious troubles, namely Pakistan and the continuing melt down of the very under-reported OTC derivatives market.

As I mentioned this advance has all the earmarks of the advance that took place in 1979.

Silver pushed out of a massive consolidation formation earlier today and is now trading at $15.83. This move is significant and opens the gates to the $20.00 to $24.00 area.

The gold stock Indexes continue to to push higher along with gold. The Gold/XAU Ratio is at about 4.30 and is not overextended. You don't have to be concerned until the Index starts moving towards the 3 area.

I again stress that you read Jim Sinclair daily. You need to hear what he is saying! The reason for this is that his http://www.jsmineset.com these days, is one of the few real sources of the truth.

Gold is moving in a perpendicular fashing now and is possibly exposed to any kind of a sell off from here on out which should be temporary when it arrives.

Again, beware of the western central bankers with all their possible propaganda that they could at anytime unleash onto the gold market.

If they create a phony sell off be prepared to stand your ground with your longs and get into position, if possble, to buy right into shakeout.

Do what Jim Sinclair does: Buy gold down every $10 on the chart.
 By Michael Miller

11/06/2007  4:58PM

I did not check the price of gold today and was about to leave the mine office for home. Oh, well, I’ll check to see if it held $800. David keeps a daily record and he entered $822.50. All the participants to this FORUM are probably less surprised than I. Gold’s strength is more than just a currency adjustment. For every transaction (buy/sell price adjustment) someone bets on an increasing price and the other side bets on a decrease. Some paper pushers are caught in a squeeze. Too bad for them and I’ll tell you why later.

Is all this drama taking place on paper or is someone actually buying gold to hold? Are the sellers selling a paper pledge or are they really selling their gold? As a gold producer, the Company is not trading promises on paper. When we sell gold, we take dollars, which we immediately spend. There is an active gold buying market in northern California.

Are all the big forward sales that financed the yet-to-be-mined gold in the ground covered? How are forward sales accounted on a company’s balance sheet? Are they liabilities? Or can a Company write them off as a loss and avoid disclosure? Forward sales just like shorting the market may be influencing this bullion market. How about covering an old forward sale with another at this price? A company could theoretically cover the loss (spread between the old sale and the new sale) and merely move the liability and day of reckoning ahead. If a company (or group of speculators) actually have access to physical gold, it may still hold a catbird position and flood the market with sales. Just how strong is the buying (upside) pressure?

A year ago I posted a thought about the new Dubai gold exchange. Its method of play was unknown; a new face entered the action. I still hold thoughts that gold is the world’s most private and safest storage of wealth. Personally, I’ll stay away from these players but it sure is fun to be involved in the game. Who knows, maybe it really is all about oil.

I recently signed up for a two-week trial for a gold based web site at the suggestion of a shareholder and active gold buyer. I am disappointed in the depth of the participants’ knowledge or behavior. They are still yapping about the things that moved gold and gold stocks twenty plus years ago. Each writer seems to think that the market will react the same today as it did then. It won’t. The fundamentals of mine production are very different as is the technical side of the market. The world’s finances have never been in the current environment.

This is a fun and ultimately very profitable time for Sixteen to One owners. Once I secure working capital, watch or participate and enjoy the ride. My questions are real questions and the answers with any source backup are appreciated. Thank you.
 By bluejay

11/02/2007  9:59PM

The world cash price is available at kitco.com.
 By cw3343

11/02/2007  4:10PM

Where do you get your spot prices? What is the best/easiest/fastest place on the Internet to find the price?

As of 11/2 after close:
I have $807.10 (NY Merc.)
and/or
$808.50 (Gold GC/1 Future Delayed)

I agree with your "whole numbers" observation...
 By bluejay

11/02/2007  9:34AM

Gold closed out the week at $806.00.
 By bluejay

11/02/2007  8:46AM

Gold has just surpassed the $800 mark. Last is $803.10.

Don't be surprised to hear from the western central bankers soon.

Usually whole numbers find it difficult, most of the time, to be passed on their first attempt.

Gold's ultimate destination appears to be over $1,650 in the months ahead.
 By bluejay

10/31/2007  1:02PM

Gold's last sale is $796.30 as we approach $800.
 By bluejay

10/29/2007  11:49PM

Gold $783.30
Silver $14.32
Gold/Silver Ratio 54.70
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.22

Gold is down $10 from last night's high and is unusually weak in Asian markets tonight.

This looks like a slam dunk for the gold bashers on the COMEX in New York tomorrow.

When these episodes appear smart money is buying into weakness. Jim Sinclair buys physical gold every 10 points down during gold selloffs.

Hopefully, we'll have a quick turnaround after the bashers have their day in the sun.
 By cw3343

10/29/2007  3:41PM

This is interesting. This came out a couple years ago. One can buy bullion through an exchange traded fund (ETF) on the NYSE, and don't have to take delivery or pay storage fees. The shares supposedly track the price of the metal, more or less, and are backed by actual bars:

http://www.streettracksgoldshares.com/us/index.php?noMsg=true

They do have internal management fees, so they will have to liquidate gold from time to time to cover this.

(This item is FYI ONLY. Please know that I am in no way affiliated with these guys, and do not advise or recommend anyone buying this unless they have researched it thoroughly and know what they are getting in to)

The picture of the vault is pretty impressive.
 By bluejay

10/28/2007  7:41PM

Gold $791.70
Silver $14.29
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.33
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.33

Gold is strong tonight and it may not all be in the U.S. dollar's weakness.

On Jim Sinclair's website at http://www.jsmineset.com he has been saying for a few weeks now that, "This Is It!"

What he's referring to is a meltdown in OTC derivatives. Everyone needs to bring themselves up to date by reading this site for an unparalleled education of the danger we're currently exposed to.

It appears that Merrill Lynch could have some very serious continuing exposure to OTC derivative failures. Merrill could be the catalyst that wakes people up!

One only has to recall what the Oracle of Omaha said in the spring of 2003 to understand what has been happening since the sub-prime problems started, "Derivatives are time bombs and financial weapons of mass destruction."

This push higher on the metal looks a lot like 1979. We could see an extreme push higher on this current move.

The folks that have been selling gold mining shares short during past months on Friday gave away their fears as they knocked down most big gold shares in after hours trading. If these people are that worried we could see one heck of a squeeze on the shares in the period ahead.

In early 1980 gold hit a high of about $875.

I suspect somewhere along in time the western central bankers will have their say with a concerted effort to depress gold with some tough talk about more gold sales.

Good luck everyone.
 By bluejay

10/28/2007  5:47PM

Gold is selling at $788.50, up $5.00 in Sydney and Hong Kong.
 By bluejay

10/26/2007  10:47AM

$783.50 last on gold in NY.
 By bluejay

10/25/2007  8:57PM

Gold trading at $775.00 in Asian markets.
 By bluejay

10/18/2007  4:30PM

Gold $768.00
Silver $13.78
Gold/Silver Ratio 55.73
Gold/XAU Ratio 4.32

There's a great self explanatory picture tonight at jsmineset.com's website of what is in store for the gold shorts.
 By Michael Miller

10/17/2007  9:55AM

Answer to Greenhorn's Question - (see the question below)

Performa Statement: ORIGINAL SIXTEEN TO ONE MINE, INC.

Factual production:
Historical production from Plumbago veins is four (4) ounces of gold per foot.
Historical production from Sixteen to One veins is eleven (11) ounces of gold per foot.
Historical production (Recent) from Sixteen to One mine between 1992 and 1997:
Total production is 32,924 ounces of gold, which average 5,487 ounces per year.

Assumptions:
Spot price of bullion gold: $650.00 per ounce.
Footage mined: Four hundred (400) feet per month.
Development mining = Two hundred (200) feet per month.
Production mining = Two hundred (200) feet per month.
Ounces of gold from development are zero (0).
Ounces of gold from production are eleven (11) per foot.

Conclusions:

Production and revenue based on actual mining between 1992 and 1997:
Annual production: 5,487 @ $650 per ounce = $3,566,550.00
Production and revenue based on actual early historic figures:
Total production: 26,400@ $650 per ounce= $17,160,000

Performa statement for Special target #1

Production and revenue based on similar actual work and results between 1992 and 1997.
The production phase is eighteen (18) weeks long or thirty-five percent (35%) of a year.
Total production: 1,920 @ $650 per ounce = $1,248,000


Performa statement for Special target #2

Production and revenue based on similar actual work and results between 1992 and 1997.
The production phase is twenty (20) weeks long or thirty-eight percent (38%) of a year.
Total production: 2,085 @ $650 per ounce = $1,355,250

Total first year production and revenue for Special Targets:

Recent Assumptions:
Total Production 9,492 @ $650 per ounce = $6,169,800
Historical and Actual recent Assumptions:
Total production 30,405 @ $650 per ounce - $19,763,250

Notes: The company sells gemstone quartz/gold that exceeds the spot price.
The use of proceeds includes a long term mining plan without projections of gold production and is classified as “development”; however a study of the history of the Sixteen to One suggests that it is highly unlikely to develop the vein to the extent planned without encountering an ore shoot.
 By greenhorn

10/16/2007  5:20PM

Here's a question. If you look backwards at what the last $5 million in effort bought in terms of gold production, what do you see? Obviously this has to be approximate, etc., but might give some idea of what $5 million more could deliver.

Just a thought.
 By Michael Miller

10/12/2007  12:48PM

I rarely jump into the gold price discussion. Peter Degraaf’s views on the fundamentals are those that I and some of the people I associate with have known for years. Fundamentals do count. A technical analysis is also a method of determining an investment. Maybe the appreciation for open discussion will be the straw that breaks the doubt of people with a desire to get into gold and have access to money to look into our operation and plans for growth.. Please don’t remind me of Brea X as if we somehow fit into that category.

The Sixteen owns outright its mines. It is a gold producer. Its working capital needs are modest ($5 million). It has the mining expertise. It has a proven product that sells for a price that greatly exceeds the spot bullion price. It has large holdings with identifiable past production and large virgin ground. It is in a secure country. It has a history of perseverance and wisdom to exist for 100 years.

So, where are the men to step to the plate? Many more pieces of evidence are out there to support an investment in gold. If anyone knows one as good as ours, please write me. It is a risk/rewards evaluation. Also what is the upside potential verses the downside risk. Work out that equation as you search for the best gold play. I did.
 By martin newkom

10/11/2007  4:44PM

They did announce a new strike
in Australia a week or so ago
 By bluejay

10/11/2007  11:03AM

The following article complete with charts can be viewed at http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/oct112007.html

By Peter Degraaf
It will never cease to amaze me how many people who call themselves ‘gold bugs’, still don’t believe that the current gold move is for real. They worry about the central bankers, the plunge protection team, the COT’s and goodness knows who else.

It’s time to step away from the ‘daily noise’ and look at the fundamentals, and then see if the ‘technicals’ line up alongside, to provide confirmation.

The fundamentals are incredibly bullish!

The money supply worldwide is increasing about seven times faster than the supply of newly mined gold.


Much of the gold listed as inventory by central banks, has been leased out, yet still shows up as physical gold.


The gold at Fort Knox has not been audited since 1953!


New gold discoveries are few and far between.


Every gold mine is a ‘depleting asset’. Once it’s gone, it’s gone.


Due to rising energy prices, the cost of exploring and mining is making some projects uneconomic, even at 740.00/oz. In addition a lot of mining equipment is on ‘back order’ – tires, trucks etc.


There is a shortage of qualified mining experts. The good ones are all employed, and due to the fact that the industry went through a bear market from 1981 – 2001, not enough people graduated with mining degrees, to replace those who are now retiring.


Even if a new supply of gold were found tomorrow, it would take many years, dozens of permits, and possible court challenges from ‘tree huggers’ before this new supply could come to market.


There are several billion more potential buyers (think jewelry), on the planet who were not part of the consuming public in 1980, when gold rose to 850.00


Two of the fastest growing economies are China and India. It just happens that both of these groups of people have a love for gold. The middle class in both of these countries is growing by leaps and bounds.


Adjusted for inflation, today’s gold price of 740.00 compares to just over 300.00 in 1980 dollars. GOLD IS CHEAP!
Now for some exciting charts:



Featured is the GDX, gold ETF. The green arrow points to an upside breakout, from a pennant formation (blue lines). Very bullish! The RSI is rising again after having eliminated some excess bullishness (blue arrow). The MACD is preparing to turn up again (black arrow). The 50DMA has just completed a ‘golden crossover’ with the 200DMA (blue and red lines). Both moving averages are rising (green oval).



Featured is the HUI index of unhedged gold and silver mining stocks. The green arrow points to an upside breakout from a flag formation. This is usually a very reliable bullish signal, and sets up a target at 490! (That’s 490!)

The blue arrow points to the RSI turning back up in support of the move. The black arrow points to the MACD which is about to turn positive again. The 50DMA and 200DMA (red and blue lines in the middle of the chart), are in positive alignment and both are rising. IT DOES NOT GET MUCH BETTER!



Featured is the XAU mining stock index for those of you who prefer this index instead of the HUI. The picture is just as bullish as for the HUI. An upside breakout from a bullish flag (green arrow), the RSI and MACD rising in support (blue and black arrows), and the 50DMA and 200DMA (green oval), in positive alignment and rising. The target here is 215!



Featured is the chart that compares the XAU mining index to the gold price. When this chart pattern is rising, it indicates that gold and the gold shares are in ‘rising mode’. We are looking here at another bullish pattern called: “Cup with handle”. The blue arrow points to the handle. We can see it not only in the index itself, but also in the supporting indicators, RSI and MACD. This is very unusual, and the upside breakout pointed to by the green arrow, is a very bullish signal.



This last chart compares HUI gold stocks to XOI oil stocks. The trend from March till July favored oil stocks. Then in July, the trend turned in favor of gold stocks again. This trend is now well established, having moved back above the 200DMA (solid red line). The two supporting indicators are positive (blue dashed lines). This tells us that, while oil is rising, pulling oil stocks up along with it, gold stocks can be expected to rise even faster.

Summary: The signs are pointing to much higher gold and silver prices, this is most likely the start of our annual “Christmas rally”. Now, if gold should drop five or ten dollars, caused by an attempt on the part of traders who are short, (to force the market down so they can cover their short positions), don’t send me your Emails, telling me I was wrong, instead get in there and buy! Don’t miss this train!

Trust the fundamentals, and trust the technical analysis that backs it up.
 By bluejay

09/27/2007  8:22PM

In world markets tonight gold is trading at about $738.

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