November 21, 2017 
 Tuesday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

12/02/2006  12:28PM

Is your accumulated wealth being destroyed by inflation?

We need to look more closely at the relationship of gold to real things to understand what's happening to our wealth. An adage familiar to most is, an ounce of gold will always buy a good tailored men's suit. Believe it or not, people used to have gold coins and they routinely traded them for real things.

It didn't take too long in recorded history for governments to figure out that they had limited political power when people traded directly with each other by the exchange of gold. So the concept of issuing monopoly money, fiat currencies, was created. The problem with monopoly money is that somewhere along in time the people don't want the bills any longer. This usually occurs when issuing more and more paper causes so much inflation that people wake up to realize that that their wealth has been compromised or in some past instances, it has totally been destroyed.

In order to keep the monopoly money circulating the issuers use all types of tricks in an attempt to fool the people that their wealth is intact. The issuers routinely attempt hypnosis in the media. Their biggest gambit is to lie to their constituents concerning the real rate of inflation. Recently, the government stopped reporting how many new dollars are being printed. It is obvious that the government is reducing the visibility for people to look over their shoulder. The statement that is appropriate here is, empirical history strongly suggests that secrets will destroy organizations.

On December 01, 2006 Dan Norcini forwarded a missive to Jim Sinclair concerning gold and protecting your wealth. The letter, along with two supporting charts, was reprinted at http://www.jsmineset.com and is available for reading under the topic, DJIA Compared To The Dow/Gold Ratio.
 By Michael Miller

11/30/2006  8:52AM

Predicting future gold prices combines art and science for sure. The fellow you wrote about took an aggressive path to get to $1600 spot. My fellow director, Lee Erdahl, gave me a great answer to the question, “Where is the price of gold going?” Gold is going up or gold price is going down. This is my usual answer to a casual question; however it is easy to see the overall direction and the price points of accumulation and disposal.

I’ll step outside this comfort zone with an observation on price based on my actual experiences during the time when spot hit $850. The mining executives and guys I knew and talked to in, was it 1981, the gold business were shocked when spot passed $650. We just shook our heads and were speechless when it broke $800. The producers knew that the new gold supply/demand curves did not support the price.

After the fall an investment banker came up to Alleghany to see the mine operation. During our visit we talked about the $850 price. I said something like, “Who in the world were the people buying gold at its high?” He paused for a bit and said, “You are looking at one of those people.” I asked him how and why he got sucked into buying, being a banking executive and businessman. He said he had watched it going up, going up, going up and finally felt he had to get gold because it was predicted to go through the roof. He bought at exactly the top. Can you believe that, a banker no less buying gold at the top.

My mining pals were happy with a $400-450 because our costs had not gone up at an equal rate as gold.

When I read your last entry (and I do read, appreciate and look forward to your input) I smiled….$1600 an ounce could be true. The lesson from the banker’s experience has stayed with me: Few people are disciplined enough to know how and when to join the gold market. Most will procrastinate both on the buy side and the sell side. When greed and envy finally become overpowering, a pack of well meaning buyers will flock to the market, thereby pushing the price well beyond the producers’ expectation. Will it happen again? You can bet on it.
 By bluejay

11/29/2006  11:10AM

Will gold go to $1600 an ounce?

So says Alf Field in a November 28th posting under Contributed Commentaries at Kitco.com entitled, "Elliot Wave Gold Update X."

Alf basically says, gold is in a major third wave with an expected price destination of $1600. This larger third wave will be composed of five smaller waves.

Of these smaller waves, wave #1 began the 6th of October at $560 and is expected to go to $870.

Wave #2 will be a declining move from $870 to $730.

Wave #3 will be an advancing move from $730 to $1230.

Wave #4 will be a declining move from $1230 to $1030.

The final wave #5 in this major 3rd wave will move from $1030 to $1600.

Alf doesn't predict times of these moves but just says, they will happen.

Jim Sinclair at jsmineset.com basically says that the years 2007 and 2008 will be extremely rewarding for holders of gold and the shareholders of gold companies plus the fireworks are yet to come.

All along gold's travels to higher and higher prices you will be tempted by the gold miscreants to sell your gold or mining shares. The constant activity of this group is to create illusion. Don't let the gold miscreants trick you out of your metal and shares. We all know who they are.

Holders of gold and gold shares need to prepare themselves for the selling shocks to the market that these miscreants can create with help from their bearish sidekicks at the hedge funds.

Alf has outlined quite well that expected sell offs in the future will be in the neighborhood of 16%. Use these price contractions to add to your positions as you are allowed to save in the months ahead. Good luck!
 By bluejay

11/23/2006  1:31AM

You think Barrick is an aggressive outfit?

What would you call an entity that borrowed physical gold from central bankers to sell into the open market for a profit while others in the same industry had their earnings reduced as a result or even went bankrupt or just had to leave the industry all together? Well, that's exactly what Barrick Gold did. In the end, they were immune from any prosecution for market manipulation because they were an admitted agent of the central banks. Sounds like a license to cheat, doesn't it?

Could Barrick be attempting to steal the in-the-ground gold from the NovaGold shareholders to facilitate not having to buy back the physical metal in the open market that they had orginally sold into? This could be more market manipulation plus intimidation for profit from their reported warning to the NovaGold shareholders.

Who in their right mind would sell their NovaGold shares to Barrick for cash and have to pay a 30% tax on that money at $16 a share and exit the fantastic potential in the years ahead at Donlin Creek?

SBK Consulting's study of Donlin Creek shows that the deposit has the capability of producing 1.885 million ounces of gold per year at an average cash cost of $223 per ounce of gold over an estimated 22 year life of the project. This estimate was based on the resources established through 2005.

Reported drilling to date can not locate where the deposit ends. This deposit is already an elephant and continued drilling just makes it bigger. Unfortunately, not all of Barrick's drill results from March of this year on the property have been given to NovaGold sharedholders for whatever reasons.

The gold at Donlin Creek is no-see-gold which means you pick up the ore and can't see any signs of gold. This is the same physical type ore that is mined on the Carlin trend. The gold is 5 micron sized. NovaGold's finds at Donlin Creek are as good or better than most of the existing mines in the Carlin trend.

The Carlin trend is 40 miles long while the trend that NovaGold has claims on is, atleast, 10 miles long. Bob Moriarty in 2002 said, NovaGold has found a Carlin trend deposit in Alaska and there is a lot of it.

It appears Barricks doesn't want to comply, or can't comply, by the November 2007 dateline to meet their contractual obligations with NovaGold on their Donlin Creek Joint Venture Agreement. If satisfactorily completed, it would have allowed Barrick to back in to an additional 40% interest in the property.

Barrick is offering to buy NovaGold for $1.7 billion. Why would anyone sell it to them for such a redicuously low price when the entire Donlin Creek gold production over the next 22 years will command in the multi billions of dollars?

Mineweb on August 16, 2006 reported the following:

NovaGold President and CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse is fighting mad, and determined to battle Barrick to the finish over what he claims is a litany of illegal and unethical behavior by the worlds's biggest gold miner.
 By martin newkom

11/22/2006  3:06PM

Appears that Barrick is a rather agressive outfit. They
want that Donlin Crk. claim.
They should put their money
where their mouth is and really
"up the ante".
 By bluejay

11/20/2006  3:30PM

The Mining Journal Online today reported the following:

Barrick Gold Corp. warned shareholders of NovaGold that their company has left important questions unanswered and could see its share price collapse as it fights off the former's hostile U.S. $1.7 billion takeover bid.

NovaGold said it spent U.S. $4.7 million on legal and advisory costs in the quarter related to Barrick's bid, originally made in June.

Last week, Barrick dropped the requirement that at least 50.1% of NovaGold's shares be tendered to its "best and final" offer of U.S. $16 a share, after the vast majority of NovaGold's shareholders declined the takeover offer.
____________________________

This kind of talk from Barrick is most certainly brazen and arrogant. What are they so frustrated about? NovaGold's main Donlin Creek asset in Alaska is one of the world's largest undeveloped gold resources but it belongs 70% to NovaGold and 30% Barrick. If Barrick wants to own it, then Barrick will have to resubmit a bid to the company for what it's worth and then, maybe. The $16 a share bid is way out of line according to many in the industry.

Barrick might have a lot of wealth and political might but the shareholders of NovaGold own the majority of Donlin Creek. Who is pulling the strings at Barrick these days and who is responsible for ordering this threat? Is it time to call Robin Hood and the Merry Men?

The tactic of trying to frighten shareholders is not new. The CDAA carpetbaggers tried it once with this company and are now paying a political price. These attorneys made a crucial mistake, "never underestimate your opponent." Maybe these people should go back to school and take a course on perspective.

Hopefully, shareholders of NovaGold will continue to tell these guys to go fly a kite until such time that Barrick decides to step up and pat the pony.
 By bluejay

11/04/2006  1:28PM

Gold was firmer last week, closing at $627.20.

Mr. Dan Norcini of Houston, Texas states that gold's action indicates that the former swing higher near the 680 level is in play.

Mr. Norcini makes regular weekly contributions at http://www.jsmineset.com. Current comments and charts on gold, silver, the U.S. Dollar and crude oil are available for viewing.
 By bluejay

10/21/2006  10:16PM

A major informative article has been written and posted to http://www.jsmineset.com entitled, Another Dastardly Deed Has Been Done.

Mr. Sinclair calls the deed an unfortunate super spin.

Check it out and get educated.
 By bluejay

10/16/2006  4:57PM

Gold has recently been firming. The current last sale is $596.20

The following are a few comments made today by Mr. James Sinclair at jsmineset.com concerning gold's recent weakness from about the $610 area to just above $560:

1- The battle has been won.

2- The lows are in.

3- Setbacks are an opportunity, not precipices from which more pain looms.

The Assosciated Press released for publication in our local paper yesterday, October 15, 06, an article entitled, Commodities Continue to Founder written by Ellen Simon.

Ms Simon mistakenly includes gold as being a commodity. Gold is a commodity when the world's financial house is in order and it is a currency when that house, especially the U.S.'s house, is out of order.

Here is the slant in the article that forecasts a lower gold price.

"Commodities prices tend to have a domino effect - lower oil prices often drag down gold prices."

"While emerging markets continue to be on a tear, if the commodity bears are right, there may be plenty of pain to spread around."

Richard Bernstein says,"(commodity) prices are now 60% above what could be explained by fundamental supply and demand. These data suggest that September's downfall in commodities might only be the beginning of a protacted bear market."

Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc."s chief U.S. strategist says, While the argument for continued high prices for commodities is that demand will continue to grow, Levkovich points out that there's some room for supply to grow, too, with a possible increase in Saudi oil production and a recent Chevron Corp. find in the Gulf of Mexico.

So here's the thesis, gold is going lower because oil is going lower. Don't bet your house on it.

The new field in the Gulf will probably take 10 years or so to bring into full production.

The rule in Saudi Arabia by the Royals should be considered temporary, at best. It is just a matter of time before the Muslim fundamentalists force them out. Prior to that happening, don't be surprised if the oil producing infrastructure starts to get attacked. When that happens, oil and gold will rapidly advance.
 By bluejay

10/05/2006  2:45PM

Gold is in the midst of a bull market shakeout being engineered by the aforementioned miscreants along with amplification from the hedge funds with their computer trading models.

Wild swings are just part of the personality of this current bull market. The hedge funds with their great investor wealth will follow any spurts of strength or weakness.

Hedge funds are market gun slingers. They are usually run by young and inexperienced traders. Might does not make right. Recently, two hedge funds have declared bankruptcy.

The pendulum swings both ways.
 By John Yuma

10/04/2006  3:33PM

Bluejay:
What do you think of the gold price today????
 By bluejay

10/01/2006  12:10PM

"I'm unashamedly, utterly bullish on gold," Newmont Mining president Pierre Lassonde said at an industry conference in Denver on September 27th.

"The current-account deficit in this country is going to reach a trillion dollars very shortly. The dollar has nowhere to go but down."
 By bluejay

09/29/2006  5:10PM

Rick

There is a tutorial on some facets of charting tonight at the http://www.jsmineset.com.

This is an excellent lesson and puts you right in the classroom with an experienced instructor.
 By bluejay

09/28/2006  2:00PM

Rick

This section was started when gold entered a major bull market in November of 2002. Although some time has passed, the gold bull market is no where near completion.

You should have opportunities ahead or possibly, even now. Gold is currently up about $30 from its recent low. Gold should be bought each time that prices look like they are being pulled into the abyss. This is accomplished by buying lower and lower until the decline comes to a halt.

I have some silver along with other precious metal items. In 2004 silver got spanked for declines of 35% in March and 27% in December. I bought at $5.90 and $6.75, respectively. In this case, I didn't buy on a scale down basis but bought when there was panic selling followed by a little wait.

The point is, your leverage for profit comes in buying down markets, not up markets within bull phases. In order to operate this way, you have to leave the safety of the flock and start acting independently and responsibly.

You can easily figure out for yourself a purchase plan that best suits you. You should spend some time going over the monthly gold chart for percentage price gyrations and become familiar with their extremes. You can view this chart by going to http://www.tradingcharts.com and hitting commodity charts and selecting metals.

In addition, you should check out a book from the library entitled Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends by Edwards and Mcgee. This will help you understand the probabilities of upcoming down moves so you can initiate your plan ahead of time by entering some orders.

Currently, the daily gold chart is forming a huge triangle. This recent decline could be it for awhile. Othwerwise, the probabilities for a strong rally into the $680 area seem to be on the increase. We'll just have to wait and see. Good Luck
 By Rick

09/27/2006  8:31PM

Bluejay...

Is this price a buy price or a wait price?

I prefer the concept of finding it and investing in the idea. But, I haven't yet committed the dollars.

Why am I waiting?
 By bluejay

09/27/2006  1:35PM

The last on gold is $600.90.

In the early days of September gold was jolted lower from about $640 to about $570. The drop registered almost a 10% loss over the short period of a few days.

These drops are a common occurrence and should not be viewed as being anything different than business as usual within this current bull market.

The gold stocks suffered a more severe shock of about 18%. The gold stocks were susceptible as margin borrowing on them had reached high levels.

The upcoming November elections had a part to play in the metal's weakness. A lower gold price would help people think of a lower inflation level and support a generally higher equities market. Along with declining interest rates over the interim the stock market is establishing some all time highs.

The appearence of a sound economy wins votes for the administration and their party.

We no longer live in a completely free market system in this country anymore. There are so many market deals being made behind the scenes just to get votes that it makes you wonder where all this abuse of power ends up.

The Exchange Stabilization Fund, the plunge protection team, was set up some years ago to prevent panic sell offs in the stock market. Now the Exchange Stabilization Fund is secretly controlling other markets. They even have their hand regularly in the gold market and who knows where else as a political tool of the administration.

Whether it be secret deals to get the price of gold lower between England, some large New York brokerage houses, the Exchange Stabilization Fund or just the FED presidents indiretly talking it down, gold will have its work cut out for itself during this bull market.

Somewhere along the road in time the actions of these miscreants will be silenced. Right now these entities are temporarily stealing upward energy from the gold bull.

The gold market is content to stockpile more and more ammunition as it watches this amateur drama unfold with indifference.

For long term gold investors, aside from the current market tinkering, your day will come.

BE PATIENT.
 By bluejay

08/25/2006  10:57AM

NOVAGOLD SUES BARRICK GOLD

The following was reported at 07:56 ET August 25, 2006 by CCN Matthews, "news distribution experts" in Canada.

Vancouver, British Columbia--NovaGold Resources. (TSX:NG)(AMEX:NG) announced today that it has filed a lawsuit against Barrick Gold Corporation (TSX:ABX)(NYSE:ABX) ("Barrick") in the United States District Court for the District of Alaska.

The lawsuit alleges that Barrick has violated United States securities laws by making material misstatements with respect to Barrick's interest in NovaGold's Donlin Creek project in Alaska.

NovaGold currently holds a 70% interest in the venture through its subsidiary NovaGold Alaska; Barrick holds a 30% interest through its subsidiary Placer Dome U.S. Inc.

Barrick has repeatedly stated that it will earn a 70% interest (reducung NovaGold's stake to 30%) by satisfying contractual back-in requirements on or before November 12, 2007.

The lawsuit alleges that these statements are false and that Barrick cannot satisfy those requirements.

The lawsuit seeks a temporary restraining order suspending Barrick's unsolicited tender offer to acquire NovaGold pending an accelerated judgment by the court regarding what actions are necessary for Barrick to satisfy those requirements.

NovaGold is asking the court to order that the requirements include certain milestones (such as completion of an environmental impact statement, a bankable feasibility study and a construction decision by Placer Dome U.S.'s board) that NovaGold believes cannot be met by the contractual deadline of November 12, 2007.

It is the opinion of many that Barrick can not satisfy the requirements of their agreement with NovaGold to acquire a 70% interest in the Donlin Creek Project.

It has been said that Barrick's expertise is not so much as mining people but more as political players. In understanding perspective, it is important to remember that Barrick was pounding gold lower near $250 an ounce some years back by selling 15 year out futures contracts.

The bottom line here was that Barrick was making quite a bit of money on shorting gold lower which thus forced excruciating pain on the gold producing companies that were doing their best to stay alive.

Do we forgive them for this? NO! We continue to watch them with a careful eye hoping that they don't come dropping out of the the sky with their claws wide open in our direction.

NovaGold has the admiration of the gold community for standing up to this bird of prey and forked tongued gold consolidator.
 By bluejay

08/22/2006  11:14PM

Since Barrick Gold's cash offer for NovaGold shares in late July, Bob Moriarty president of 321Gold Inc. and the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee(GATA) have taken shots at Barrick's offer. Today, Vince Borg Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications at Barrick fired back.

On August 7, 2006, Bob Moriarty wrote an article entitled, "Is Barrick trying to turn a Silk Purse into a Sow's Ear." Bob says that NovaGold holds a 70% interest in their Donlin Creek, Alaska property. Barrick owns the other 30% as the result of their merger with Placer Dome.

Barricks currently owns 30% with a 40% back-in clause right if certain conditions on the development of the property are met. They currently have not been met.

Barrick needs to do, according to Bob, hundreds of thousands of meters of drilling, detailed engineering to complete a bank feasibility study and getting construction permits so that their board of directors would approve the start of construction by early 2008. Bob goes on to say that there isn't anyway in the world that Barrick will make their contractual timeline.

Bob says Barrick has done a good job of confusing the issue, they always count NovaGold's ownership on their books as 30% of the Donlin Creek gold deposit. Currently there are 28 million ounces of gold blocked out. Barrick is now doing the drilling and isn't sharing with anyone, including NovaGold, how many ounces of gold they know is in the ground so far.

NovaGold's stock is now $17.20 a share far above the offered $14.50 per share by Barrick. Bob says that shareholders should be thinking $40 to $50 a share before giving away their stock. There is speculation around that there may be as many as 50 million ounces in the deposit.

GATA is taking the position that Barrick should cover their short obligations on about 12 million ounces of gold in the market as a condition before any price acceptance by NovaGold shareholders.

GATA feels that the outstanding short positions that orginally depressed gold prices should be covered in the market and the squaring off of those positions will return gold to a more realistic price. GATA says that Barrick's shorting was a major suppressing force against the gold price and against the price of gold mining shares.

GATA notes that much of the increase in the price of gold in recent years has been attributed to the reduction of hedges, the closing of short positions, by gold producers.

Vince Borg of Barrick says GATA's efforts to link the senior mining company's unsolicited bid for NovaGold with Barrick's hedgebook are "misleading" and based on an "errant set of suppositions." Bill Murphy at GATA claimed that the major company "is desperate for the unhedged gold in the group at NovaGold, with which Barrick would extricate itself from a nightmare. Taking over NovaGold would help Barrick immensely."

Borg said that Barrick Gold doesn't need NovaGold to deal with its hedgebook.

Borg also said that Barrick has had a no hedge policy for the past three years. He also said that this year Barrick has been a net buyer of 7.5 million ounces to settle Placer Dome's hedgebook.

Borg even said that some of GATA's comments "are not based on any facts whatsoever" and strain GATA's credibility with the investment community.

The vote goes to Bob Moriarty and Bill Murphy at GATA for supplying the public with the truth. The lap dogs from Barrick speak with fork tongues.

It's not difficult to understand that Barrick is attempting to steal NovaGold at a deep discount with their current offer.
 By bluejay

08/21/2006  9:59AM

Gold is higher today at $623.90 and is up $12.00.

The media is reporting higher oil prices and growing inflation concerns as the main reasons for gold being higher. This is simply not true.

As mentioned previously, the commercial nickel short positions were being squeezed. Today, nickel is currently trading at $14.62 a pound vesus $13.90 on 8-17 and the shorts are having greater pain. Gold shorts take note!

In addition to liquidity problems growing for some members of the London Metal Market, currect available nickel supplies are running at an historical low. Current supplies in the LME warehouses are only good for one day of world demand.

In the media background, palladium is making an impressive move higher today from a price congestion area and with a last price of $342, up $12.00.

In the last few months it was copper and now it is nickel. It's not the speculators causing higher prices as the media would like you to believe, it is industrial demand. China and India are the main driving forces of higher prices as their growing economies require more and more raw materials. Unfortunately for price stability, mine supply is lagging far behind demand.

It is just a matter of time before the next metal appears under the spotlight.

In the case of gold, there is a limit of how much metal can be borrowed and shorted. The day of destruction for the gold nay-sayers is closer than they think.
 By bluejay

08/17/2006  12:42PM

Gold is down $14.60 at $613.90 today.

The reason for this decline is more than likely a repeat scenario of the gold selling that indirectly originated from the Bank of England when copper broke above the $4 level and caused liquidity troubles for the commercial shorts on The London Metal Exchange.

This time around there is a brewing Exchange liquidity problem with nickel. The last sale on nickel is $13.90 a pound versus the low within the past year of $5.

On Monday the Wall Street Journal reported that POCSCO Co. Ltd. the world's fifth largest steel marker is struggling to cover nickel short positions on the LME.

What this means for gold is that the gold shorts get extremely nervous when they see a short squeeze in another metal. Immediately they go into their master of illusion routine and sell the public some more of their deception by dumping borrowed gold or paper gold into the market.

The day is coming when all this orchestrated negative energy focused on gold will abruptly end with the gold shorts getting their heads handed to them. Mr. James Sinclair made the following comments today: "Today it is nickel but shortly it will be gold. You can take that to the bank by buying gold weakness."

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