November 21, 2017 
 Tuesday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

07/17/2005  8:19PM

The following is an excerpt from a July 15, 2005 article by Mr. Paul van Eden entitled "The devaluation of gold" that appeared on kitco.com

By comparison, the U.S. money supply(as measured by M3) has been increasing by an average compound rate of 7.8% since 1959.

While gold devalues at 1.73% per year, the dollar devalues more rapidly.

The value of gold in US dollars has therefore increased at an average rate of 6.07% since 1959.

Note that I did not say "the price of gold" in the previous sentence.

We all know that gold was underpriced at $35 an ounce in 1959.

According to work I have done, I estimate that the gold price should have been about $51.22 an ounce in 1959 and, if you assume that that is more or less correct, you can calculate what the gold price should be today.

Compounding $51.22 at 6.07% for 46 years results in a current value for gold of $770 an ounce.
------------------------------

To better understand why the value of gold depreciates by itself without weighing any factors plus some more interesting facts concerning gold go to kitco.com and read the informative article.
 By bluejay

07/15/2005  11:10AM

The price of gold continues to build up strength for its next advance. During the past six months gold has been resting roughly in the $420 to $440 area. Its price today is in the bottom area of its current trading zone at $419.

Gold's price since its bull market started in late 2002 has basically been to hit new extreme trading highs every 11 months. The last high took place 7 months ago near $460.

If the advancing perpetual motion that has been in effect since 2002 continues, gold should hit $490 an ounce during the month of October. Usually tight trading ranges, like the one witnessed during the past period, provide fast short term advances which could consume up to eight weeks in duration.

Currently, the major gold stocks are taking a breather following a few weeks work at their overhead resistance levels. The major gold stocks have recently been displaying excellent relative strength compared to the gold price. This in the past has indicated that an impressive move higher in those gold mining shares is near.
 By bluejay

05/10/2005  11:35AM

Lynwood

A graph of the ratio between the dollar gold price and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index going back to January of 1984 is available at http://www.mineweb.net/sections/other_minerals/438667.htm.
 By bluejay

05/09/2005  10:55AM

Lynwood

There is a free and exemplary DVD discussing gold now available. The DVD is being offered by MONEX out of Newport Beach(800 949-GOLD). The interview is with Mr. James Sinclair. This DVD will be a classic.

Concerning the gold stocks, the most reliable 1 year indicator is the ratio of the dollar gold spot price to the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index(XAU). So says Myles Zyblock the chief North American institutional strategist for RBC Capital of Canada.

Recently, Mr. Zyblock has identified a buy signal for gold stocks. Currently the gold to XAU Index ratio is 5.08. Byblock's bottom line: buy gold stocks when the ratio is above 5 and sell them when the ration is below 3.

Selecting gold stocks is a difficult pursuit as compared to holding the safer bullion but they can be extremely rewarding if you are holding the right one.

The quality players in the gold stock sector are presently favoring Jack Dempsey's Royal Gold. Mr. Sinclair is also positive on this one. As you might well know, Royal Gold is a gold royalty company with almost all of their revenue stream coming in from mines in Nevada which are operated by the majors.

As far as exploration gold stocks are concerned, our own 16 to 1 is an asset rich play with excellent prospects awaiting a higher gold price.
 By lynwood

04/29/2005  6:55PM

When gold was selling for $250 an ounce, who was buying the physical commodity? Was the supply of gold consumed in manufacturing? Did it go into storage of value? In predicting the price per ounce of gold does supply and demand rule? What does this mean for the gold producers, refiners or central banks? Gold shares have dropped. Why? Is it less demand for speculators and investors of their stock or is it because the price of gold has hit a plateau? Years ago the federal government tracked production and other information about gold. No one seems to care anymore. Is gold still an economic factor in global business? There hasnít been a good book with fresh ideas on gold for years, at least not in the past five years. Is gold manipulated like other commodities? If so, who are the players? Do foreign government care a whit about gold? Are the oil producers acting like they did in the late 1970ís regarding their interest in gold? There are too many questions for me to get a handle on future price trends. Bluejay, you are probably a chartist and use the past as the foundation as an indicator for the future. You have called it right in the past but has anyone developed another way to follow gold? If so, write a book or post it here. As a storage of wealth gold appears undervalued.
 By bluejay

04/29/2005  8:38AM

Gold shares have been jolted with selling recently. During the past eight weeks the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index(XAU) is lower by 21%.

In early 2003 a comparable assault took place on the XAU Index during a similar eight week period by a greater percentage of 26%.

Unfortunately for people that sold in early 2003, they missed the 85% move that directly followed.

Shake out moves like these are extremely difficult to forecast or almost impossible to predict. The important point is while the herd gets scattered don't let your emotions control you. This is not a fight or flight situation.

The current pressure on the gold stocks is being orchestrated by a desperate group of people who are having nightmares at the thought of a much lower U.S. Dollar, which is coming.
 By bluejay

03/21/2005  9:24PM

The word out tonight is that the Japanese are taking the Dollar higher to make their fiscal year ending March 31st look better. This is no more than marking up a losing position to save a little face for the day.

This type of short term market manipulation happens frequently when individuals or a group of people have a continuing nagging loss. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Dollars.

It seems reasonable to expect the current weakness in gold to fizzle out at or very near the end of the month.

Smart market players are buying the gold stocks on the current weakness. The exploration stocks continue to look higher as they awaken from their long dormancy.
 By bluejay

03/11/2005  11:13PM

Words of wisdom tonight from the jsmineset website spoken by Mr. Jim Sinclair who is referred to as Mr. Gold by the New York Times.

"The end of the game expected in 1980 in fact is here with 2008 written all over it. When the world recognizes that the CPI and the PPI are "CARTOONS" fabricating conditions that do not exist, the house of cards will implode upon itself."

"Gold will be the "last man standing." You either own it or you will not be standing. A little goes a long way."

"Gold shares now plastered into the basement of single digits will rip the shorts a new behind. What is going to happen in the next three years will set your hair on fire."

Also, a significant article appeared on http://www.jsmineset today written by Mr. Dan Norcini of Houston, Texas. The message is clear and well presented, the days of low interest rates are over.
 By Jawa

01/04/2005  10:05AM

Blue Jay, What about us guys holding Rands? Should we invest in Cheese?
 By Vumba

01/04/2005  9:11AM

Bluejay: We all know gold is in a Bull Market, so what else is new?????
 By Surferdan

01/03/2005  10:24PM

Bluejay: If you look at the fundamental, a screwed up world, you can see that gold is going to go up, up and up. Maybe to $1,000. by year end. Who are these guys you mention, Lars Lindgren and Jim Sinclair?Why not just use common sense?
 By bluejay

01/03/2005  9:40AM

The last sale on gold is 428.10 which is off 9.00 for the day. The prediction for 2005 is that gold will trade in the low 400's in the early months and somewhere near year's end, gold will surpass 500.00.

The current action in the metal is no more than a gut check. This is the expected opportunity that was mentioned earlier to obtain additional gold and gold related companies.

The gold price currently is in the same technical position as it was in the early parts of 2003 and 2004, both times proven buying opportunities.

The key point for identifying opportunity is that gold is trading under a previous top that has been bettered some months prior. In the current case, the previous high that was bettered was about 432 or so.

Now is the time to dust off the old checkbook and enter some scale down orders starting today. This anemic period for gold could last another month or so.

The most important point here is that gold is in a bull market. As gold's perpetual motion carries it higher on this long term ride, periods of weakness are to be expected. If these periods don't frighten you to sell then, hopefully, they can be used to your advantage.
 By bluejay

11/17/2004  10:22AM

Gold hit 445.10 earlier today. To many folks this price may seem high.

Late in 2002 I drew your attention to an important technical market development when gold crossed above its historical 5000 day moving average line near 350.

Another market development has recently occured that is also quite important.

Before I start, let me mention that I am unable to present the chart which I will be discussing. Maybe I can Fax it up to Rae and she might figure a way to get it into the system.

In March of 1996 a long term chart pattern started to develop and just recently it matured by breaking above its formation. The formation called the "Cup & Handle Classic" by Mr. Jim Sinclair(http://www.jsmineset.com) consumed over seven years in the making.

Now that gold has pushed above 420 which was the top of the cup and then recently its handle close to the 432 area gold can now move higher.

Along its way seeking higher and higher prices, the metal will be subjected to its usual attacks. These attacks will originate from supporters of the paper factory. We all know by now who these people are.

This important news is that these people will be attempting to buck a new explosive move higher in the years following and will fail. In addition, weakness will also occur along the way as the gold price rests and regains its weekly strength. These sell offs should be viewed as expected opportunities to add to your existing positions in bullion and the gold producing companies and possibly some exploration issues that have creditable properties and management.

In conclusion:

- The price of gold is not high based upon a breakout from a historical chart formation.

- Gold's battery has been supercharged during the last seven plus years which will enable it to be one of the better performers in appreciation in the years ahead.
 By bluejay

11/14/2004  1:06PM

A Euro/USD chart created by Lars Lindgren of Norway was posted to the http://www.jsmineset.com website today. Lars is an internationally respected technical analyst. On the presented chart he made the following long term projections:

- Gold to rise to the $550-580(area) next year.
- Silver to rise to $12-14 next year.
- US Dollar Index to continue its downtrend.
 By bluejay

11/12/2004  7:50PM

From the gold master himself, Jim Sinclair,

Until 2015, the dollar will decline on balance and gold will be extremely strong.
 By Rick

11/07/2004  9:16AM

Thanks Lynwood, as I certainly include you as a guidance source.

What do I have in mind? Nothing new, just looking for an easily explained rationale for when people ask me to connect the dots in the world of gold and its value. (My interest has always been long term and more ethereal as far as my own personal finds are concerned, as well as and separate from my personal interest in OAU.) I do recognize how today the upward trend in gold prices doesn't seem to be connected to the inflation index as in the past, as you've all pointed out.

Perhaps there's a new parameter on the horizon, something other than oil and the dollar and China's new global participation and gold? Does the global pursuit against terrorism play into uncertainty?

Certainly, I'm not looking for a "predictable-all-in-one-quick-fix-get-rich" strategy, as anyone who knows me personally will attest; it goes against my grain. As we know, fraudulent fortunes have been made, manipulating stories of booms and busts, and nothing is foolproof when the human propensity for acquiring wealth runs amuck.

I guess that's why I asked.
 By lynwood

11/07/2004  12:18AM

There is no history of gold that will reveal future events. Gold has no challenger for its eminence as wealth, if wealth is viewed from a historical perspective. Probably the only readers of this forum own gold is some form. Rick and Blujay own a percentage of the brown bear, sixteen to one, plumbago, bald mountain, tightner, red star, and lesser gold producing mines in California. Right? And gfxgold finds gold dredging and hopes to find gold in the hard quartz of Alleghany. Me, I have my gold in many forms.

I report basic facts about past present and future gold subjects. There are no historical averages for gold that are worth computing. The spread is thousands of years and arbitrary. It seems like the current trend of oil, inflation (real or implied) fear of investment positions, and the good old supply and demand situations influenced value in President Carterís turn at the wheel. A noteworthy difference is interest rates and inflation.

There have been advocates for and against gold in the United States over 150 years. They exist today. As the value of gold or the dollar is based on hard and soft factors, interest in companies that produce gold have an advantage over other forms of gold ownership, including the physical stuff in your possession. The krugar rands were the early leaders for taking possession of gold. The South African coin was a safe purchase because the fineness and weight were established. Inflation today and interest rates verses the Carter time period is worth talking about. Oil and its exchange between buyers and sellers rocked the ratio between dollars and gold and oil. The big shocks occurred during President Reaganís turn at the wheel.

Today, China is manufacturing and the production of everything; Middle East supplies the energy to live; the West exchanges currency and protection. The relationship during Carters time excluded China as a factor. What was left boiled down to oil and gold. Bankers were fooled by what they observed along with other investors. Where do bankers stand today? During the Carter/Reagan years, banks published their gold holding and sales. No one ever published his or her purchases. Major media reported every sale. Not so today. However, tomorrow will be different and today will be history. Is there manipulation? The advocates against gold and the advocates with it battle today. Thos people or companies or counties ďwith itĒ are numerically few in number. Both sides manipulate. The single greatest current dominant factor today that did not exist years ago may be China. Then again it may be the internet and older means of communicating.

THERE IS NO RATIONAL WAY, RICK. What do you have in mind?
 By Rick

11/06/2004  7:05PM

gfxgold and bluejay, I turn to you for insight.

Is there a rational for why gold was so low within these times since Jimmy Carter; or are we (and if we are, where are the parameters) experiencing an upsurge against some historical average?
 By gfxgold

11/06/2004  10:00AM

Gold, $432.90. Most precious metals are up across the board, mostly due to the drop in the value of the dollar. Hopefully, the dollar won't take a big hit but, psycologically start the value of gold up the next rung of the ladder.
 By bluejay

10/31/2004  12:01PM

A new and powerful message concerning gold has just been posted today on the website by Mr. Jim Sinclair at http://www.jsmineset.com under the tile of, "The Real War."

The message is chilling.

The bottom line is:

1- A new Muslim currency called the gold Dinar will emerge as a superior currency to the U.S. Dollar.

2- The Russian Ruble will emerge as a superior currency to the U.S. Dollar.

3- "If you fail to own gold and gold shares but rather depend on the U.S. Dollar to protect your life's work you are in for the worst of disappointments."

4- "Reduce debt if you can and move your gold and gold share position up to no less than 33 1/3 percent of your liquid net worth."

Dan Norcini posted an informative guest editorial Friday, October 29th, entitled, "From Russian with Love" on the same website commenting on a story concerning the Russian Ruble.

The message from both stories is clear, the U.S. debt has gone too far and as Mr. Norcini concluded, "As usual, it will be the ordinary citizens who will have to bear the brunt of the lunacy of bureaucrats and career politicians."

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