October 21, 2019 
 Monday 
 
 

Forum
Topic:
Gold Enters Major Bull Market

       

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 By bluejay

09/14/2004  1:45PM

Keep yourself informed on why gold has to go higher by logging in to the free website, jsmineset.com. Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? What do the expanding political changes in Russia mean to the price of gold?

This site represents a shinning beacon of truth that most certainly you will never completely find in the newspapers or on the nightly news.

The day is coming when the remaining wealthy investors will be to some degree holding gold and the companies that produce it.

The respected Paul Van Eeden whose commentaries appear frequently at kitco.com under Kitco Contributed Commentaries is stressing investing in some select gold exploration companies.

According to these two men, along with Richard Russell, gold is dirt cheap.
 By lynwood

07/17/2004  11:56AM

In Response to Rick on January 31,2004

The global thought you ask has changed over the last century; however with a slight substitution maybe the following is valid. To paraphrase most every seasoned text on international (that is what it was called before global) trade and financial relationships, the functioning of a gold standard in any country is greatly affected by the number of countries employing it. This point is important because of the wide variations in the geographic coverage of gold standards during the past century. For a few decades prior to 1914 gold standards were used by virtually every commercially important country in the world. Later the numbers fluctuated widely until the United States became almost alone in its use. The decade between the mid 60’s and 70’s collapsed the long-standing position of gold in international trade. Or did it? If we substitute the word “countries” with companies, corporations or groups or individuals, maybe today the global financial players are still using the only currency of payment trade and wealth storage that will last. When you think of oil, think of gold.
 By bluejay

05/30/2004  12:54PM

The overall selling pressure on gold has ended. The month of May will be marked as a reversal month that set up higher prices for the time period leading into May of 2006 where gold prices are expected to then hit 524.
 By bluejay

03/30/2004  10:02AM

Lynwood

Barrick has threatening financial problems as a direct result of their lessened but continuing in place old gold derivatives program.

For complete details visit the http://www.jsmineset.com website and locate the story, Newmont To Make Takeover Bid For Barrick?
 By bluejay

03/29/2004  8:55PM

Russia's Norilsk Nickel was reported in the Financial Times today, March 30, 2004, to have purchased a 20 percent stake in Gold Fields of South Africa. Norilsk Nickel is the world's tenth biggest gold producer itself.

Norilsk also holds the number one position for production of nickel and palladium in the world. Last year Norilsk purchased a controlling interest in the U.S. palladium and platinum producer, Stllwater Mining. Since that investment, palladium prices have shot up over 25%.

People should be aware of the inside market knowledge that the Russians are shrewd metals traders.

Norilsk made Gold Fields purchase along with current talks in South Africa of an impending 3% government royalty charge to the gold producers. No question about it, Norilsk is looking for a much higher gold price in the time period ahead that will undoubtedly dwarf the 3% proposed royalty expense.
 By bluejay

03/29/2004  8:55PM

Russia's Norilsk Nickel was reported in the Financial Times today, March 30, 2004, to have purchased a 20 percent stake in Gold Fields of South Africa. Norilsk Nickel is the world's tenth biggest gold producer itself.

Norilsk also holds the number one position for production of nickel and palladium in the world. Last year Norilsk purchased a controlling interest in the U.S. palladium and platinum producer, Stllwater Mining. Since that investment, palladium prices have shot up over 25%.

People should be aware of the inside market knowledge that the Russians are shrewd metals traders.

Norilsk made Gold Fields purchase along with current talks in South Africa of an impending 3% government royalty charge to the gold producers. No question about it, Norilsk is looking for a much higher gold price in the time period ahead that will undoubtedly dwarf the 3% proposed royalty expense.
 By lynwood

03/29/2004  9:34AM

A surprising report! Could it be a paper shuffle for reorganizing to trim overhead? Would this be just a continuing of the growth and consolidation phase of our global economy? What will be the US federal government response (Sherman anti trust action as it did in Microsoft)? In what ways could you and me be affected? Could this impact the small gold producers like 16 to 1? Barrick stole Homestake and left its shareholders with reduced value. Is this a win-win or will one side of shareholders gain at the expense of the other? Will anyone other than the few of us who understand the historical lessons of sound currency and the freedom it provides the common man have any reaction (pro or con)? Is this another step in the fraud and manipulation slowly being revealed about big gold (Blanchard suit)? Thanks for the tip, Bluejay. Could the continuation of past events within the gold mining/ banking or money creation/ social and political industries be like putting a happy frog into a pot of refreshing water on top of a stove with a flame underneath the pot?
 By bluejay

03/28/2004  10:30PM

The Sunday Telegraph reported March 28th that Barrick Gold, the world's third biggest gold producer, may receive a takeover offer from larger rival Newmont Mining Corp.
 By bluejay

02/11/2004  10:32PM

Once in awhile we come across that special individual in our lives that speaks the truth and religiously follows his or hers convictions with uncompromised passion that commands our respect. In past comments under this subject topic, Gold Enters Major Bull Market, reference has been drawn to Jim Sinclair's free website at http://www.jsmineset.com. Jim Sinclair tells it like it is and is an outstanding writer. He is a man of a comfortable life style that runs the website to educate people along with spending part of his time trading gold and being the chairman of a Toronto Stock Exchange listed company.

The following are Jim's comments made today under the general editorial "Big Al Talks the Talk" from his website:

"Big Al was speaking on Capitol Hill today, soothing interest rate fears which ebb and flow much like the changing tides these days."

"Let's face it, we live in an era of micro-indicators where the impact of this day-to-day minutiae in the marketplace displaces the big story which is self evident to anyone that has a pulse and their eyes open." That story is the dollar and the global threat of currency debasement which is going to lead to an increasing volatile marketplace and higher gold prices."

Somebody should start keeping track of the contradictory statements coming from so-called people "in the know" about where their currencies should trade relative to the U.S. dollar. But of course, the real challenge would be getting any two of them to agree on anything including what vintage wine to have with lunch."

With this theme in mind, sometime ago I received this Q&A from a skeptic whose had considerable success in the marketplace going against the economic wisdom of the day. Q: What's the difference between an economist and a befuddled old man with Alzheimer's? A: The economist is the one with the calculator."

"All of this banter in the marketplace is of course self-serving, bringing to mind the old gem that you can always tell when a politician is lying because "his lips are moving."

The US Federal Reserve, the current administration and the European Central Bank have taken this game of deceit to a level that even the Soviets never managed to achieve during the Cold War."

"The gold market doesn't seem to be buying this nonsense anymore and is building a solide base for the next move up that may see some increased volatility and a break of previous highs that might be as innocuous as gold's breach of the $400 level. Stick around. The next few months are going to be interesting, one way or another."
 By bluejay

02/02/2004  9:46PM

Rick

There is an eye opening article concerning technical thoughts relating to gold, the Dollar and some of the other component currencies of the Dollar Index that was recently published on the http://www.jsmineset.com website. The article is dated Monday, February 02, 2004, 11:07:00 PM EST.
 By bluejay

02/01/2004  10:58PM

Rick

Today, the constant for tracking gold's price movements is related to the U.S. Dollar. Everyone is most familiar with the posted Dollar activity of the day which is actually the price on the U.S. Dollar Index.

The Dollar Index is traded on the New York Board of Trade in NYC and is composed of six currencies:

Euro 57.6%
Yen 13.6%
UK POUND 11.9%
Canadian Dollar 9.1%
Swedish Krona 4.2%
Swiss Franc 3.6%

The main reason for the Dollar's weakness and Gold's strength in U.S. funds is attributed to the current administration's expanding red ink. The administration's current account debt and government debt is more than twice the amount of the Clinton years and continues to grow.

Our Current Account deficit with our trading partners is approximately $140 billion. During the administrations of Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford the U.S. showed a slight credit balance over those years.

The problem with the Dollar is that U.S. economic recoveries are becoming more and more dependent upon a higher and higher amount of debt coupled with lower and lower interest rates. Until this trend is reversed, if possible, gold's performance will be tied in U.S. currency to the trading action of the Dollar.

The Japanese Yen is on the verge of moving up against the Dollar. When this happens, expect the Euro to reassert itself with new highs. Directly following the price of gold will advance again as the Dollar Index sells off to record lower lows.
 By Rick

01/31/2004  7:33PM

Bluejay,

Ususally I write from a perspective of politics, but this time, please help give me some perspective:

What parameter is the price of gold (here in the current political and/or global and/or US national climate) tied to the most, and therefore having the most immediate influence on volatility, be it both long-term and short-term:

1) Fluxuations from the recent ebb and flow of the US dollar;

2) Global economic instability, measured by the prospective survival and viability of EU;

3) Politics in the US today (presidential race pontifications);

or 4) Something I haven't thought about.

I value your insight, and enjoy your contributions. I know to even answer this is a tall order, and certainly not meant as a challenge. Basically, "Whaddaya think?"
 By bluejay

01/31/2004  2:28PM

Currently gold is trading in an inversed locked step with the U.S. Dollar. Gold weakened last week as a result of a slight upwards move in the Dollar that was orchestrated by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.

The Committee indicated in its January 28th press release that its time table for keeping interest rates low was changed in their mind from "a considerable period" to "be patient." As Paul van Eeden said, "the market, on the other hand, has no patience." "The Dollar immediately strengthened against the Euro and, as a result, the U.S. Dollar gold price declined." The thought of higher interest rates sooner, rather than later, would in theory encourage some investment in the U.S. Dollar. Ay least, that's the theory.

Usually when these kinds of semi-positive short term statements concerning the Dollar are made by officials, the Exchange Stabilization Fund is in the market making these people look good for political reasons by selling the foreign currencies that have strengthened the most against the Dollar.

In the Financial Times today it was reported that the Bank of Japan spent $67 billion this January to keep the Dollar higher against the Yen. A total of $187 billion was spent by them for all of last year for this purpose. Japan can not continue spending at this monthly rate. Somewhere in time, sooner rather than later, the Yen will move higher against the Dollar and gold will make new yearly highs.
 By bluejay

01/19/2004  10:47PM

Last week European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet released a statement that sent the Euro currency into a short term decline that influenced the Dollar higher and thus sent gold lower. This is the reason that gold sold off from about $430 to under $410 where it is now trading at close to $405 Monday evening in Hong Kong.

An explanation of this event is presented in a reprint of some of the comments from Jim Sinclair at http://www.mineset.com that was released on January 17, 2004.

The Cooperation of the Incumbents

Do governments really worry about how they handle national assets when that ability depends upon an upcoming election? Would China cooperate with Japan and Washington if it meant the acceptance of and a modest rather than a major readjustment in the Yuan? Is the following a real reversal of a trend or an act of mutual support?

Credit Where Credit is Due

Markets have been central to my life for the past 45 years and I must credit the administrations of all major trading nations with the magnificence of their operations up until now. The cooperation of media, government, reporting agencies, law enforcement and others have created a major bull phase and recently a major currency adjustment in the form of a brutal move up and then down in the Euro.

What European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet condemns, he created along with his colleagues and the market only followed the verbal statements of his fellow central bankers. First, it was on the up side with the public declaration that there was no problem with the higher Euro, and last week it was on the down side with statements concerning the evil of a high Euro.

The US Treasury market is a miracle of international central bank cooperation, using technical maneuvers to bull the market by nailing a huge short position after applying force to the short end of the curve. All this is effective but only on the medium term at best.

Last week's event may end the easy money for a while in gold on the long side but will not contain its price for any significant time period.

Gold

We are trading right into the support at Friday's close.

The major support for gold is right below and right above $400. Major long term support for gold is just slightly below and above $390.

Resistance still stands again at $419.70 and $430.30.

End

The important point here is that while other governments continue to play their games of support with the US concerning currency values and their exporting leverage, the main thesis of the US is to get gold lower which will thus create a false sense of security to hold its Dollars.

For the security of your future, it is strongly suggested that this current period in gold's weakness be used as an opportunity to make first time investments in bullion gold coins or to add to already existing positions.

Correction from the previous entry:

Total manufacturing jobs lost in the US since 2000 is 2,600,000. It was erroneously forecast to be 2,400,000 at election time.
 By bluejay

01/17/2004  2:44AM

Auriferous

I just read your past comment concerning that there may not have been a conspiracy in gold after all since the price is above $410.

Even though the general conspiracy by the central banks of the world's debtor nations may have forced them to eat crow now based upon the changes in thinking by China and the oil producing nations, our debtor country along with the others may still be capable of sporatic influence, albeit greatly reduced.

China currently holds 2% of its reserve assets in gold. It is their intention to increase this figure to 10%. China has recently made it legal for its citizens to hold gold. So you can depend upon China to be a serious buyer for years to come. The oil producing countries in the mid-east are fed up in exchanging their exported oil for a greatly reduced U. S. Dollar value. I hear that in the years ahead those oil producing countries will be slowly reducing U.S. Dollars as part of their holdings representing their currency reserve base and in addition, will be, the sooner the better, eventually not be accepting payment in Dollars at all. Oil prices were stronger this past week and are now close to $35 a barrel level. The Dollar has had a little rally lately but it will be short lived.

The old gold cartel is in shambles as a result of the continuing weak Dollar. As interest rates are kept artificially low in the U.S. the Dollar will overall continue to weaken and gold will rise. If interest rates start rising the recent artificially stimulated economic expansion will come to a screaming halt. In this election year it will a safe bet to make, that rates will continue to be pegged at the current low levels.

If rates do rise possibly following presidential elections or before, the recent renewed confidence in the U.S. economy will quickly evaporate. This possible event will surely effect an enormous amount of U.S. companies and some shareholders will probably begin bailing out which will send the stock market south. If this happens, where will their money go? It most likely will be placed in areas of security and one of those places is gold.

Another serious potential trouble area for the stock market is the derivatives market which shakes and trembles when interest rates rise. This potential if it does develop, could totally unravel the economy as we know it today and our job security will feel its wrath. The unregulated derivatives market is the biggest potential bombsell that has ever surfaced in the economic history of the World.

The conspiracy to keep gold artificially low is all but history. How much longer will the oil producing nations continue to accept the depreciating U.S. Dollars for their oil? Somewhere soon in time, the Euro will come into play as the new World reserve currency and the Dollar will slowly over the years be replaced.

This Dollar weakness is solely attributed to a country living beyond its means. During the 1800's the world economic power was England. Most of the 1900's that position was held by the U.S. The decline of the U.S. has already started. China is now taking over the driver's seat of economic power and influence. The Chinese will dominant the world in the 2000's. Get ready America. China knows that in order to make the new world rules that it must own a far greater amount of gold. This is why the conspiracy will never again hold the power that it once did when it significantly suppressed gold as it did over the past 15 or so years. Game over!

The last gasp of frustrated purpose for the old gold catel may have taken place in the 10 spread out gold sales by England below $300 an ounce a few years back. The English Exchequer took much public related heat for those sales.

One other related item. Our wealth in the U.S. compared to other countries on an international basis will consistently decline over the balance of our life times. It has already started. The reason is that the world is saturated with U.S. Dollars and our representives in Washington have no responsible prospective interest in reversing this new trend. They for the most part, are just interested in being reelected and living off the fat of the land.

A large percentage of our world debt is related directly to imported oil. Our oil reserves in this country have been in consistent decline for many years while our consumption continues to rise.

Even though we have been given temporary consumer relief in lower domestic retail prices in all goods imported from China, this is only adding to our international debit balance problem with this trading partner. Along with the problem is our continuing loss of manufacturing jobs. By the time election is here later in the year, the current administration will have compiled a disgusting record of destroying 2,400,000 American manufacturing jobs. The newspapers say we have a robust economy now. This is a false and unhealthy expansion. A healthy economic expansion is supported by the increase of manufacturing jobs, not the loss of them.

Even though the U.S. population is almost totally unaware of their shrinking overall wealth compared to the rest of the world community, the commercial traders of gold are also not aware of this larger picture change that must facilitate higher gold prices compared to declining U.S. Dollar. Their old guard seems content is believing that they still control the world gold market by their foreful manipulative selling of the metal as was shown this past week. The metal reacted too far compared to the mini advance of the Dollar. They should have learned the lesson that the British Exchequer experienced and not continued their obssession with control issues relating to the gold market.

Jason, Good news for you. It is my opinion that Palladium has finally turned the corner and will be higher into the years ahead. Good Luck! Stephen

I am getting like Richard Russell. I wake up in the middle of the night and start doing this and that and end up writing. Well, I guess it's back to bed.
 By John Q Public

12/17/2003  10:34PM

Bluejay,
You make a good point?

How about compliance issues as one thing! The Sixteen is no where close too SEC Compliance.

No Audited 2002 Returns, no quarterly filings for any of 2003 and of course now that we end 2003 probable no ability to get a 2003 audit done in the next 3-6 months for 2003 year end. And with no audit, probable no 2004 quarterlies.

Then to make a market and get back in a active trading environment another investment and 3-4 months time.

Total cost as management has stated in past statements on this site $150-250k.

Money, unfortunetly that this company does not have.

In fact I would bet that this company is already running in the estimated: "red" again even though it expected 125-150k from the sale of concentrates considering the electric continues to stay on and the bill grows monthly. In fact I liked the generalizeation which was just made comparing the last little find at the Sixteen to a 110oz per ton mine. Well if that were true, your investment worries would be over.

I don't know what should be done, any ideas?
 By Rick

12/13/2003  7:50PM

What the heck, I might as well weigh in on the subject of the price of today's spot-gold, from one who's never traded any gold for currency, since my tiny collection is my hobby only, everything in it personal finds.

Sometimes close friends ask me about what "this" is worth or what "that" is worth and I only smile, because to melt it down and take it to a bank would yield a loss of memories and a few month's gas-money, not to mention a complete lack of value. But I see their faces glow nonetheless.

This is a difficult concept for the investment-minded-pragmatist to understand, as they stare at a portfolio-stock page or into their deceased grandparent's keep-sake box at what looks like raw, first-time-seen-by-humans gold, as they contemplate what monetary value it could add to the bank account, once someone figures out how to transform it from "stuff" into "money".

I have a close friend with a specimen (one that he found) so spectacular that it defies "art", if we allow ourselves to include those
encounters we silly humans've discovered that are created by that higher power (Lord knows we couldn't pull it off as well)...He's been offered many thousands for this crystaline piece, less than an ounce in weight...and seen under a scope yeilds an insight far beyond the morning's gold-price fix.

(Whoops, losing you?)

Here's my point, relating it to the price of gold: As we encounter the raw form of gold, it's prudent to see it as something other than a melted spot-price entry on the balance sheet. While the price of gold is relative to operational potential, it relates differently to the mega-extractors (who by the nature of their deposits would never have the opportunity to extract specimen, non-spot value) compared to small operations (AKA our 16-to-1) from whom spectacular specimens emanate. (For those of you new here, compare it to meling down family heirloom jewelry and sending it in for an assay and weight assesment.)

But, as economics dictate, it does relate to the price of gold, on some weirdo lever, as I've witnessed while Mike reluctantly condemns exceptional specimens to the flame, only to send it off as tribute in a never-ending political battle to stay afloat.

What a shame that so much beauty has been compromised by political mandate.
 By auriferous

12/13/2003  9:29AM

I for one am happy that gold is trading above $410 right now. Perhaps there really isn't a conspiracy after all....
 By bluejay

11/22/2003  11:10AM

The following is an excerpt from the November 22nd Dow Theory Letters written by Richard Russell(http://www.dowtheoryletters.com).

FYI.....I spoke after the close today with a longtime friend of mine. He's been a trader on the floor in New York for about a decade. I can always trust him to gove me the straight scoop on what's happening and what the chatter is, as opposed to some trader friends who will talk their book no matter how long you've known them.

This guy says something VERY big is happening behind the scenes in the gold market right now and tension on the floor is higher than he's ever seen it. He believes there is now a symstematic, behind-the-scenes effort by multiple buyers to take delivery of as much gold as possible. I asked him what was wrong with that, and he replied that there IS no gold out there in size at any level right now. There's no physical offered in size at any reasonable level, and he said it has never been more of a paper market than now.

I then asked him two questions: Who are the buyers, and has there been Fed intervention? He thinks that the buyers are too large to simply be short or intermediate-term speculators, and says the chatter is that the buying is coming out of Asia. In the terms of the Fed, he said that almost all traders on the floor including him believe the Fed has been periodically intervening to cap the rallies in gold....but then he said something that was somewhat shocking. He thinks the Fed has actually been trying to BUY gold. He thinks the periodic attempts to cap rallies(which he says happened yesterdaay, by the way) have two purposes: to not allow gold to spook the bond market and the dollar, AND to give the Fed a chance to buy gold lower from speculators when the rallies fail.

Apparently, there is some speculation among in-the-know traders that at some point next year, the Fed may be forced by the dollar and bond markets to float the idea of an eventual return to at least a PARTIAL dollar/gold link. Some of the chatter comes from the fact that earlier this year, Greenspan made a speech that started off mentioning how the gold standard had led to stable prices over a long period of time.

In any event, that's the scoop. There was a lot of tension in my friend's voice, and he repeatedly said that something "very big" is happening in (the) market right now. The last thing he said was that he thinks $500 gold within the next 6 months is "a done deal."
-END-

Here is another scoop, on last Monday while gold was being forced down by the gold cartel, from about the $400 level to just under the $385 level, I personally witnessed some important buying in the precious metal stocks, especially the silver stocks.
One important point can be made here, the public was not doing any buying that day. The people that were buying the gold and silver stocks on Monday were knowledgeable and wealthy individuals. Two individuals that came to mind were Monty Guild(mguild@guildinvestment.com) and Warren Buffett.
 By bluejay

06/08/2003  10:27PM

Lynwood, I am unable to verify any of those two sources. I just saw and heard about the two on television like everyone else did.

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